2010 will not be another 1994.

[nkpatel1279]

In the 1994 midterm election. Republicans made a net gain of 54 seats in the US House. They unseated 32 Democratic Incumbents plus 26 open seats.
Democrats won 4 OPEN GOP US House Seats- ME-2,MN-6,PA-18,and RI-1 (Solid Blue Districts-carried by Bill Clinton.).
Republicans picked up OPEN DEM US House Seats-(Red Districts carried by George HW Bush).
AZ-1,FL-1,FL-15,GA-8,IN-2,KS-2,KY-2,MS-1,NC-2,NC-5,OK-4,OK-6,SC-3,TN-3 and WA-4. (15)
Republicans unseated Democratic US House incumbents in Red Districts carried by George HW Bush.
CA-19,GA-7,GA-10,ID-1,IN-4,KS-4,NE-2,NC-3,TX-13,and UT-2 (10)
Republicans picked up OPEN DEM US House Seats in (Blue Districts carried by Clinton).
IL-11,ME-1,MI-8,MN-1,NJ-2,OH-18,OK-2,TN-4 and WA-2 (9)
Republicans unseated Democratic US House Incumbents in purple Districts.
AZ-6,IN-8,IA-4,KY-1,NH-2,NJ-8,NY-1,OH-1,OH-6,OH-19,PA-13,VA-11,and WA-5. (13)

[nkpatel1279]

In 1994 Republicans unseated Democratic US House Incumbents in Blue Districts carried by Bill Clinton.
CA-1,CA-49,IL-5,NV-1,NC-4,TX-9,WA-1,WA-3,WA-9,and WI-1 (10).
In 2010-  We have to look at how many Obama Republican Districts Democrats can win.
DE-AL(assuming Castle retires or runs for US Senate). IL-10(OPEN seat- Kirk is running for US Senate. ),LA-2(Cao is an accidential Congressman), and PA-6 (OPEN Seat- Gerlach is running for Governor.) +4  plus MN-3, and NJ-7 weak freshman Republican incumbents in Moderate Districts. If Paulsen(MN-3) and Lance(NJ-7) move to the right - They lose- if they stay in the center - they will be another Dave Reichert.  NY-23 will depend on whether we win seat in Special Election.
Regarding how many open McCain Democratic Districts are there. LA-3 (Melacon) is running for US Senate. Republican pickup.  Plus McCain Democratic Districts that Democratic incumbents won by narrow margins. AL-2,AL-5,ID-1,MD-1,NY-29,PA-3,and VA-5. and Weak Obama Democratic Districts. CO-4,FL-8,FL-24,NM-2,NY-20,NY-24,OH-1,and VA-2.  (Republicans will gain 10-15 seats in the US House.

[nkpatel1279]

Regarding the 1994 US Senate Races. Republicans picked up 6 OPEN Democratic Senate Seats. (AZ,ME,MI,OH,OK,and TN-Special). OK and TN were Red States or trending Red. In AZ,ME,and OH- Republican candidates were stronger than the Democratic candidates. MI was due to national wave.  Two Democratic incumbents lost. PA(Wofford) and TN(Sasser). Wofford was a weak incumbent and Sasser's loss had to do with his role in Hillarycare- TN was one the most Anti Clinton states. Republicans held onto to all of their open seats (MN,MO,and WY). WY is a red state. MN was a wave election. MO- Republican candidate was stronger than Democratic candidate.
In 2010- Republicans have 6 open seats to defend (FL,KS,KY,MO,NH,and OH). FL is similar to MO 1994 except Crist is no wingnut like Ashcroft. -Republican retention due to a top tier Republican vs mediocre Democrat. KS is a red state with no top tier Democratic candidate. KY is a tossup. MO and OH are Democratic pickups due to weak unpopular Republicans. NH is tossup but Democratic pickup. Two Republican incumbents are vulnerable LA(Vitter) and NC(Burr). Vitter is favored to win re-election. Burr-NC be potentially defeated.

[nkpatel1279]

Regarding what Democratic Senate Seat- Republicans can potentially pickup.
AR(Lincoln)- mediocre Democratic incumbent in a very ANTI Obama State.
CO(Bennett)- low keyed appointed Democratic US Senator in purple state.
CT(Dodd)- Senior Democratic US Senator from Blue State faced with scandal-
DE(OPEN-Kaufman)- competitive if Mike Castle(R) runs. otherwise safe Democratic (Beau Biden).
IL(OPEN-Burris)- competitive due to Strong GOP candidate(Kirk) and Blagojevich scandals but IL is too blue to elect a Republican Senator. Giannoulias- the likely Democratic nominee is favored to win general election.
NV(Reid)- Unpopular due to role as Senate Leader.
NY(GIllibrand)- appointed US Senator - Vulnerable if Pataki runs- otherwise Safe.
PA(Specter)- primary challenge but whoever wins Democratic primary is favored to win general election.

Democrats will hold on to DE,IL,NY,and PA. AR because Republicans will nominate a wingnut- same goes for CO.  CT and NV will be determined by national economy and passing healthcare.

[nkpatel1279]

Lets look at how many Red District Southern Democratic US House Members are there.
AL-2(Bright),AL-5(Griffith),AR-1(Berry),AR-2(Snyder),AR-4(Ross),FL-2(Boyd),GA-8(Marshall),KY-6(Chandler),LA-3(Melancon),MS-1(Childers),MS-4(Taylor),MO-4(Skelton),NC-7(McIntyre),NC-11(Schuler),OK-2(Boren)SC-5(Spratt),TN-4(Davis),TN-6(Gordon),TN-8(Tanner),TX-17(Edwards),VA-9(Boucher),WV-1(Mollohan),and WV-3(Rahall).  The Arkansas Democratic Reps are well established- they will get re-elected as long as they run. same goes for FL-2(Boyd),GA-8(Marshall),KY-6(Chandler),MS-4(Taylor),MO-4(Skelton)-GOP pick up if Skelton retires, NC-7(McIntrye),NC-11(Schuler),OK-2(Boren)SC-5(Spratt),TN-4(Davis),TN-6(Gordon),TN-8(Tanner),TX-17(Edwards),VA-9(Boucher),and West Virginia Democratic Reps.  Republicans will pick up AL-2,AL-5 (Weak Democratic Incumbents), and LA-3(OPEN seat). plus weak in weak Democratic incumbents in Red Districts such as ID-1 and MD-1.

[nkpatel1279]

Regarding the Governorship. In 1994 Republican won Governorships of big States such as
CA(Wilson),TX(Bush),NY(Pataki),IL(Edgar),PA(Ridge),OH(Voinovich),MI(Engler)- Democrats won FL(Chiles) and GA(Miller).  In 2010 Democrats are likely to win the Governorship of Big States except TX.
CA(Brown),NY(if Cuomo is DEM Nominee),FL(Sink),IL(Quinn),PA(if Wagner or Onorato),OH(Strickland),MI(Cherry),and possibly GA(Barnes),and MA(Patrick).