2010 will not be another 1994.
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Author Topic: 2010 will not be another 1994.  (Read 3998 times)
nkpatel1279
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« on: September 24, 2009, 09:56:39 AM »

In the 1994 midterm election. Republicans made a net gain of 54 seats in the US House. They unseated 32 Democratic Incumbents plus 26 open seats.
Democrats won 4 OPEN GOP US House Seats- ME-2,MN-6,PA-18,and RI-1 (Solid Blue Districts-carried by Bill Clinton.).
Republicans picked up OPEN DEM US House Seats-(Red Districts carried by George HW Bush).
AZ-1,FL-1,FL-15,GA-8,IN-2,KS-2,KY-2,MS-1,NC-2,NC-5,OK-4,OK-6,SC-3,TN-3 and WA-4. (15)
Republicans unseated Democratic US House incumbents in Red Districts carried by George HW Bush.
CA-19,GA-7,GA-10,ID-1,IN-4,KS-4,NE-2,NC-3,TX-13,and UT-2 (10)
Republicans picked up OPEN DEM US House Seats in (Blue Districts carried by Clinton).
IL-11,ME-1,MI-8,MN-1,NJ-2,OH-18,OK-2,TN-4 and WA-2 (9)
Republicans unseated Democratic US House Incumbents in purple Districts.
AZ-6,IN-8,IA-4,KY-1,NH-2,NJ-8,NY-1,OH-1,OH-6,OH-19,PA-13,VA-11,and WA-5. (13)
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2009, 10:07:47 AM »

105 posts

104 lists that no one read and one solicitation for sex

surely at this point you've created every list possible in the history of politics

good job, your work here is done
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2009, 10:51:13 AM »

In 1994 Republicans unseated Democratic US House Incumbents in Blue Districts carried by Bill Clinton.
CA-1,CA-49,IL-5,NV-1,NC-4,TX-9,WA-1,WA-3,WA-9,and WI-1 (10).
In 2010-  We have to look at how many Obama Republican Districts Democrats can win.
DE-AL(assuming Castle retires or runs for US Senate). IL-10(OPEN seat- Kirk is running for US Senate. ),LA-2(Cao is an accidential Congressman), and PA-6 (OPEN Seat- Gerlach is running for Governor.) +4  plus MN-3, and NJ-7 weak freshman Republican incumbents in Moderate Districts. If Paulsen(MN-3) and Lance(NJ-7) move to the right - They lose- if they stay in the center - they will be another Dave Reichert.  NY-23 will depend on whether we win seat in Special Election.
Regarding how many open McCain Democratic Districts are there. LA-3 (Melacon) is running for US Senate. Republican pickup.  Plus McCain Democratic Districts that Democratic incumbents won by narrow margins. AL-2,AL-5,ID-1,MD-1,NY-29,PA-3,and VA-5. and Weak Obama Democratic Districts. CO-4,FL-8,FL-24,NM-2,NY-20,NY-24,OH-1,and VA-2.  (Republicans will gain 10-15 seats in the US House.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2009, 11:07:28 AM »

Regarding the 1994 US Senate Races. Republicans picked up 6 OPEN Democratic Senate Seats. (AZ,ME,MI,OH,OK,and TN-Special). OK and TN were Red States or trending Red. In AZ,ME,and OH- Republican candidates were stronger than the Democratic candidates. MI was due to national wave.  Two Democratic incumbents lost. PA(Wofford) and TN(Sasser). Wofford was a weak incumbent and Sasser's loss had to do with his role in Hillarycare- TN was one the most Anti Clinton states. Republicans held onto to all of their open seats (MN,MO,and WY). WY is a red state. MN was a wave election. MO- Republican candidate was stronger than Democratic candidate.
In 2010- Republicans have 6 open seats to defend (FL,KS,KY,MO,NH,and OH). FL is similar to MO 1994 except Crist is no wingnut like Ashcroft. -Republican retention due to a top tier Republican vs mediocre Democrat. KS is a red state with no top tier Democratic candidate. KY is a tossup. MO and OH are Democratic pickups due to weak unpopular Republicans. NH is tossup but Democratic pickup. Two Republican incumbents are vulnerable LA(Vitter) and NC(Burr). Vitter is favored to win re-election. Burr-NC be potentially defeated.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2009, 11:09:05 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2009, 11:16:23 AM by WEB Dubois »

The republicans are trying to put themselves in a position to win back the House in 2012 and they plan on nominating Mitt Romney in 2012.

They are trying to win back at least 25 seats, around the 200 mark so that it would set themslves up for that.  They have put the Dems on defensive on increasing taxes in a recession as it relates to health care and the overall economy. Southern Dems in the McCain districts are the most indangered concerning tax increases of the 49 Democratic districts McCain won.

That's not to say the GOP won't win back the 25 seats they lost in 2008, but they have been outraising the Dems and have room to grow, if they want at least that possibity.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2009, 11:18:59 AM »

Regarding what Democratic Senate Seat- Republicans can potentially pickup.
AR(Lincoln)- mediocre Democratic incumbent in a very ANTI Obama State.
CO(Bennett)- low keyed appointed Democratic US Senator in purple state.
CT(Dodd)- Senior Democratic US Senator from Blue State faced with scandal-
DE(OPEN-Kaufman)- competitive if Mike Castle(R) runs. otherwise safe Democratic (Beau Biden).
IL(OPEN-Burris)- competitive due to Strong GOP candidate(Kirk) and Blagojevich scandals but IL is too blue to elect a Republican Senator. Giannoulias- the likely Democratic nominee is favored to win general election.
NV(Reid)- Unpopular due to role as Senate Leader.
NY(GIllibrand)- appointed US Senator - Vulnerable if Pataki runs- otherwise Safe.
PA(Specter)- primary challenge but whoever wins Democratic primary is favored to win general election.

Democrats will hold on to DE,IL,NY,and PA. AR because Republicans will nominate a wingnut- same goes for CO.  CT and NV will be determined by national economy and passing healthcare.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2009, 11:32:56 AM »

Lets look at how many Red District Southern Democratic US House Members are there.
AL-2(Bright),AL-5(Griffith),AR-1(Berry),AR-2(Snyder),AR-4(Ross),FL-2(Boyd),GA-8(Marshall),KY-6(Chandler),LA-3(Melancon),MS-1(Childers),MS-4(Taylor),MO-4(Skelton),NC-7(McIntyre),NC-11(Schuler),OK-2(Boren)SC-5(Spratt),TN-4(Davis),TN-6(Gordon),TN-8(Tanner),TX-17(Edwards),VA-9(Boucher),WV-1(Mollohan),and WV-3(Rahall).  The Arkansas Democratic Reps are well established- they will get re-elected as long as they run. same goes for FL-2(Boyd),GA-8(Marshall),KY-6(Chandler),MS-4(Taylor),MO-4(Skelton)-GOP pick up if Skelton retires, NC-7(McIntrye),NC-11(Schuler),OK-2(Boren)SC-5(Spratt),TN-4(Davis),TN-6(Gordon),TN-8(Tanner),TX-17(Edwards),VA-9(Boucher),and West Virginia Democratic Reps.  Republicans will pick up AL-2,AL-5 (Weak Democratic Incumbents), and LA-3(OPEN seat). plus weak in weak Democratic incumbents in Red Districts such as ID-1 and MD-1.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #7 on: September 24, 2009, 11:43:43 AM »

Regarding the Governorship. In 1994 Republican won Governorships of big States such as
CA(Wilson),TX(Bush),NY(Pataki),IL(Edgar),PA(Ridge),OH(Voinovich),MI(Engler)- Democrats won FL(Chiles) and GA(Miller).  In 2010 Democrats are likely to win the Governorship of Big States except TX.
CA(Brown),NY(if Cuomo is DEM Nominee),FL(Sink),IL(Quinn),PA(if Wagner or Onorato),OH(Strickland),MI(Cherry),and possibly GA(Barnes),and MA(Patrick).
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #8 on: September 24, 2009, 06:58:22 PM »

The posts would be somewhat more interesting if they were properly formatted.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2009, 07:12:10 PM »

I will say this:  If Republicans win the House in 2010, they wont be winning back the White House until at least 2020. 
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2009, 08:51:14 AM »

I will say this:  If Republicans win the House in 2010, they wont be winning back the White House until at least 2020. 

The results of 2010 will have absolutely no bearing on what happens in 2012.  People have been quickly seeing what Obama's Amerika entails and they don't like it.  He's going to be a one termer like Carter.
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2009, 11:39:34 AM »

I will say this:  If Republicans win the House in 2010, they wont be winning back the White House until at least 2020. 

The results of 2010 will have absolutely no bearing on what happens in 2012.  People have been quickly seeing what Obama's Amerika entails and they don't like it.  He's going to be a one termer like Carter.

Tell me, do you have any evidence to back this up?
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2009, 11:47:28 AM »

Double space please.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2009, 12:14:07 AM »

I will say this:  If Republicans win the House in 2010, they wont be winning back the White House until at least 2020. 

The results of 2010 will have absolutely no bearing on what happens in 2012.  People have been quickly seeing what Obama's Amerika entails and they don't like it.  He's going to be a one termer like Carter.

If Republicans gain the House, they will see what they COULD have and that will send them right back into Obama's arms. 
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2009, 02:38:58 AM »

I will say this:  If Republicans win the House in 2010, they wont be winning back the White House until at least 2020. 




The results of 2010 will have absolutely no bearing on what happens in 2012.  People have been quickly seeing what Obama's Amerika entails and they don't like it.  He's going to be a one termer like Carter.

The same could have been said for Clinton in 1993. And I think both you, and the GOP, is mistaking anger at Democrats for enthusiasm for the Republican party. There is none. Thats why the GOP has barely moved on the generic ballot tests, while the Democrats have fallen. Furthermore, do you really think that independents who are considering voting for Kirk in Illinois or Simmons in Connecticut have much appetite for any prominent national republican with possible contingent exception of Romney? I think Obama is proving a disaster, and might well have preferred McCain in hindsight, but I would almost certainly never vote for any of the Republicans whose names have been thrown about for President.

 I fully expect a good result for them in 2010, but how the GOP handles it will determine their chances in 2012. There is no way Palin or Huckabee or Perry will win a national election, and if they go the Gingrich route they could end up losing quite convincingly in 2012.

Remember also, even Carter was in a toss-up race as late as September of 1980 before his campaign fell apart. Its not so easy to beat incumbents, especially when they can run against you, which Obama will be able to do with an extremist house.


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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2009, 03:14:17 AM »

I will say this:  If Republicans win the House in 2010, they wont be winning back the White House until at least 2020. 




The results of 2010 will have absolutely no bearing on what happens in 2012.  People have been quickly seeing what Obama's Amerika entails and they don't like it.  He's going to be a one termer like Carter.

The same could have been said for Clinton in 1993. And I think both you, and the GOP, is mistaking anger at Democrats for enthusiasm for the Republican party. There is none. Thats why the GOP has barely moved on the generic ballot tests, while the Democrats have fallen. Furthermore, do you really think that independents who are considering voting for Kirk in Illinois or Simmons in Connecticut have much appetite for any prominent national republican with possible contingent exception of Romney? I think Obama is proving a disaster, and might well have preferred McCain in hindsight, but I would almost certainly never vote for any of the Republicans whose names have been thrown about for President.

 I fully expect a good result for them in 2010, but how the GOP handles it will determine their chances in 2012. There is no way Palin or Huckabee or Perry will win a national election, and if they go the Gingrich route they could end up losing quite convincingly in 2012.

Remember also, even Carter was in a toss-up race as late as September of 1980 before his campaign fell apart. Its not so easy to beat incumbents, especially when they can run against you, which Obama will be able to do with an extremist house.




That is basically what I am trying to say.  Also remember that Obama and Democrats are highly unlikely to work with Republicans the way they did in 1995-1996.  They will remember what Republicans are doing to them now and they will rightly take revenge.  I expect Schumer in the Senate to basically kill anything Republicans pass in the House.  It will be much like the "do-nothing" Congress of 1947-48. 
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2009, 08:46:46 PM »

A do nothing Congress is A-OK with me.  Everything they do only seems to make things worse.
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JerryBrown2010
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2009, 07:07:59 PM »

I will say this:  If Republicans win the House in 2010, they wont be winning back the White House until at least 2020. 

I don't know, i just have that feeling that 2016 will be a republican year or a very close election.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2009, 08:26:23 PM »

The republicans are trying to put themselves in a position to win back the House in 2012 and they plan on nominating Mitt Romney in 2012.

Yep, when I think of solid coattails, I think of Mitt Romney.
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