Weakest D freshman?

[nkpatel1279]

In 2008- The Democratic US House Members who lost re-election were freshman with the exception of Jefferson-LA. Mahoney-FL16 was narrowly elected in 2006 due to the Mark Foley scandal. Mahoney's loss had to do with a sex scandal. Nancy Boyda-KS-2 election victory in 2006 was a surprise. Boyda made a foolish decision not to recieve any help from the DCCC. Cazayoux-LA-6 won a special election in 2008 but lost in 2008 general election due to a Democratic third party candidate. Lampson-TX-22 who won Tom Delay's old US House seat in 2006 represented a safe Republican District.
In 2004- The Democratic US House Incumbents who lost re-election were in TX-due to Delaymandering. Sandlin,Lampson,Frost,and Stenholm plus Hill-IN which was a shocker.
In 2002- The Democratic US House Incumbents who lost re-election were Thurman-FL-5- and Luther-MN-2 redistricting. Maloney-CT-5,Phelps-IL-19,and Shows-MS-4 were placed in Incumbency vs Incumbency districts.
In 2000- The two Democratic US House incumbents that lost were Gedjenson-CT-2 and Minge-MN-2 both losses were shockers.

[nkpatel1279]

In 1998- Jay Johnson-WI-8 who was a first term Democratic US Senator from a traditional Republican congressional district lost re-election.
In 1996- Mike Ward-KY-3- weak Democratic freshman incumbent, Harold Volkmer-MO-9 Senior US House Member whose district was trending Republican and Bill Orton-UT-3 who represented the most Republican district in the nation.
In 1994 GOP wave. English-AZ-6,Hamburg-CA-1,Schenk-CA-49,Johnson-GA-10,Barlow-KY-1,Klien-NJ-8,Mann-OH-1,Strickland-OH-6,Fingerhut-OH-19,Mezinsky-PA-13,Shephard-UT-2,Byrne-VA-11,Cantwell-WA-1,Inslee-WA-4,Kriedler-WA-9,and Barca-WA-1 were freshman Democrats.
In 2010- The weakest freshman Democrat is Perriello-VA-5- his district is pretty conservative except for the College Communities in Lynchburg. and he is not got going to benifit from a high Obama Democratic  turnout which gave him a narrow victory over Virgil Goode.
Red state Freshman Democratic US Reps like Bright-AL-2,Griffith-AL-5,Minnick-ID-1,and Kravotil-MD-1,Childers-MS-1 are popular in their districts at a local level. An anti Democratic wave will cause their seats to lose. Grayson-FL benifited from Obama coattials. In 2010- Charlie Crist- who is popular in FL-8 and McColloum-who represented FL-8 while in Congress is going to be on the ballot.

[nkpatel1279]

Looking at all the 2008 Democratic Freshmans.
The Alabama US Reps- Bobby Bright(AL-2) and Parker Griffith(AL-5) are in solid Red Districts- but Bright and Griffith are Gene Taylor like Conservative Democrats. The only way Bright or Griffith lose is if 2010 is a 1994 like GOP year. Since 2010 will be like 1998 or 2002- Bright and Griffith will hold on.
Ann Kirkpatrick- AZ-1 represents a competitive District. However her 17 point margin victory had to do with her Republican opponent being a Rightwing nutjob and corruption scandals involving the outgoing GOP incumbent Rick Renzi.  If Republicans nominate a JD Hayworth type Republican then Kirkpatrick wins. If Republicans nominate a Jeff Flake type Republican then Kirkpatrick can lose if 2010 is another 1994.
Betsey Markey-CO-4 represents a traditional Republican District- (Allard,Schaffer,Musgrave). Markey's double digit victory over Musgrave had more to do with Musgrave rightwing extremism. A Scott McInnis type Republican can make CO-4 competitive or Republican pickup- assuming 2010 is another 1994. A Tancredo/Musgrave type Republican makes CO-4 a Safe Democratic District.
Jim Himes- CT-4 represents a safe Democratic District.
Grayson-FL-8 represents a bellwether District.  A Charlie Crist type Republican can defeat Grayson.
Same goes for Suzanne Kozmas FL-24. - A Charlie Crist type Republican can defeat Kozmas but if Republicans nominate a Bill McCollum/Tom Feeney type Republican- then the Democratic incumbent will hold on.
Walt Minnick ID-4 is a Conservative Democrat in a pro Republican District. It will take a 1994 like wave for Minnick to lose. If Republicans nominate a wackjob like Sali or another Chenoweth- Minnick wins. If Republicans nominate another Butch Otter, then Minnick can lose.
Debbie Halverson-IL-11 represents a swing District trending Democratic. The IL-GOP party is weak. Same goes for Bill Foster IL-14.
Frank Kravotil- MD-1 is popular in the Eastern Shore Area.
The Michigan Democratic Freshmans. Schauer-MI-7 represents a swing Districts- can lose or face a tough race if Republicans nominate a moderate like Joe Schwartz but a Conservative Republican like Tim Walberg will be a Safe Democratic. Peter-MI-9 represents a Districts becoming increasing a safe Democratic District.
Travis Childers-MS-1 is a Conservative Democrat in a Republican District. Childers lose will depend on whether or not 2010 is another 1994.
Titus-NV-3 represents a district becoming a safe Democratic District.
John Adler-NJ-3 is vulnerable due to the fact he represents a Bellwether District. This race will be too close to call. Adler is safe if Republicans nominate a rightwing Conservative.
Regarding the NM Reps- Heinrich and Lujan are safe. Teague is vulnerable due to the fact his Republican opponent is former US Rep Steven Pearce. NM-2 will be a tossup in 2010.
Regarding the NY Freshmans. McMahon-NY-13,Maffei-NY-25 are safe. Murphy-NY-20 and Massa-NY-29 are vunerable but favored to win re-election.
Kissell-NC-8 is safe.
Regarding the OH Democratic Freshmans. Driehaus-OH-1 is vulnerable because he is facing a rematch against former US Rep Steve Chabot. If 2010 is another 1994- Driehaus can lose. Kilroy OH-15 is vulnerable because she underperformed- She won an open seat election with less than 50% of the popular vote and a two third party challengers getting a total of 10%. Boccieri-OH-16 is safe.
Dahlkemper-PA-3 represents a swing District- She is a perfect fit for voters in PA-3.
Regarding the VA US Reps. Nye-VA-2 and Connolly-VA-11 are safe. Nye-VA-2 military/foreign policy background is perfect fit for VA-2 and Connolly-VA-11 represents an increasingly safe Democratic District.  Perriello-VA-5 is vulnerable because of his narrow victory due to Obama/Warner coattails. Perriello-VA-5 is too liberal for voters in VA-5.

  

[nkpatel1279]

Freshman Democrats who lost in 1994.
1)Karan English- AZ-6 elected in 1992 in a newly created swing District by a 53-41. due to the help of popular conservative icon Barry Goldwater. Lost to JD Hayworth. Hayworth lost in 2006 Democratic wave.
2)Dan Hamburg- CA-1 elected in 1992 unseating first term Republican Congressman Frank Riggs by a 48-45 percent margin. Hamburg lost in a rematch to Riggs. Riggs won close re-election bid in 1996- and then decided to retire in 1998 rather than face a tough challenge against Mike Thompson- who now holds this seat.
3)Lynn Shenk- CA-49- elected in 1992 in a newly created swing District by a 51-43. Lost in 1994 to Brian Bilbray. Democrats won seat back in 2000- Now CA-53 is Safe Democratic District.
4)Don Johnson- GA-10 elected in 1992 by a 54-46 percent margin. Lost in a landslide to Charlie Norwood. District is now a safe Republican District.
5)Tom Barlow- KY-1 elected in 1992 with 60% of the popular vote. Loss was a shocker. District is now safe Republican.
6)Herb Klien- NJ-8 elected in 1992 by a 47-41 percent of a popular vote in a traditional Democratic District. Lost in 1994 to Bill Martini. Democrats won seat back in 1996.
7)David Mann- OH-1 elected in 1992 by a 51% margin against 3 Independents.  Democrats won seat back in 2008.
8)Ted Strickland- OH-6- electd in 1992 by a 51-49 percent margin unseating a Republican incumbent. lost in 1994 to a nutjob-Frank Cremeans.. won back in 1996 elected Governor in 2006.
9)Eric Fingerhut. OH-19 elected in 1992 by a 52-47 percent margin. lost in 1994 to Steve LaTourette - a moderate Republican in the mold of George Voinovich.
10)Marjorie Margolies Mezinksy-PA-13 elected in 1992 by a 50-50 margin over Jon Fox in a open seat. Lost in 1994 rematch. Democrats won seat back in 1998. Fox lost in a rematch to Joe Hoeffell. Now safe Democratic District.
11)Karan Shephard- UT-2 won in 1992 by a 51-47 percent margin. Lost in 1994 in a rematch to Enid Greene. Democrats won seat back in 2000. now held by Jim Matheson. Greene retired in 1996 due to scandals and Merrill Cook turned out to be a nutjob.
12)Leslie Byrne- VA-11 elected in 1992 in a newly created swing District by 50-45 percent margin. Lost in 1994 GOP revolution to Moderate Republican Tom Davis. Democrats won seat back in 2008 when Davis retired.
13)Maria Cantwell- WA-1- elected in 1992 by a 55-42 percent margin. Lost in 1994 to Rick White. Democrats won WA-1 back in 1998 (Jay Inslee). Cantwell made a comeback got elected to the US Senate defeating Slade Gorton.
14)Jay Inslee- WA-4 elected in a traditional Republican district in 1992 by a 51-49 percent margin. Lost in a rematch to Doc Hastings. Inslee made a comeback getting elected to the US House in 1998 from a neighboring Congressional District.
15) Mike Kriedler-WA-9 elected in a newly created Swing District in 1992 by a 52-43 percent margin.  Lost in 1994 wave to Randy Tate. Democrats won seat back in 1996.
16) Peter Barca- WI-1 elected in Special Election. lost in rematch to Mark Neuman.

Looking at the 2008 Democratic Freshmans.
1)AL-2 Bobby Bright is a popular Mayor of Montgomery County which is located in AL-2. He is a conservative Democrat. Republicans had a divisive primary.  
2)AL-5 is a Conservative Democratic District- It was represented by Bud Cramer.
3)AZ-1- (Ann Kirkpatrick) won a open seat in a bellwether District. Kirkpatrick is going to face a tough race but is favored to win. (Gifford,Arcuri)
4)CO-4- Betsey Markey unseated a controversial Republican incumbent in a traditional Republican District.  Markey has to be on the vulnerable list.
5)CT-4- District is a safe Democratic District. Himes benifited from Obama coattails. Without Shays. District is Himes to lose.
6)FL-8- Bellwether District. Grayson benifited from Obama coattails. In 2010. Charlie Crist and Bill McCollum who represent FL-8 is now on the ballot. A Charlie Crist type Republican can unseat Grayson.
7)FL-24- Suzanne Kozmas- similar to CO-4 Markey. unseated a controversial Republican incumbent in a district that was suppose to be leaning Republican. but can lose in 2010 to a Charlie Crist type Republican.
8)ID-1- Walt Minnick is a Conservative Democrat unseated a weak Republican incumbent.
9)IL-11- Debbie Halverson- elected in open seat. IL-11 is a swing District but Republican bench in IL is weak especially in IL-11.
10)MD-1- Frank Kravotil benifited from a divisive Republican primary- Kravotil is popular in Eastern Shore MD.
11)MI-7- Mark Schauer defeated a Conservative Republican incumbent in a swing District. Schauer will face a tough race but will win re-election.
12)MI-9- Gary Peters- defeated a weak GOP incumbent in District trending Democratic. Peters is pretty safe
13)NV-3- Dina Titus defeated an accidential Republican congressman in Obama Wave. Jon Porter won in 2002 against a scandal plague incumbent. Seat is now safe for a Democrat.
14)NJ-3- Jon Adler won a bellwether Distirict. Will face a tough race in 2010 but is favored to win.
15)NM-1- Martin Heinrich-open seat in Democratic leaning District. Safe.
16)NM-2- Harry Teague- open  seat in Republican leaning District. Republicans have a top tier recruit.
17)NM-3- Ben Lujan- open seat in safe Democratic District.- Safe.
18)NY-13- Mike McMahon is popular in Staten Island. Safe.
19)NY-20- Murphy narrowly won in a special election. benifit from Schumer/Gillibrand coattails.
20)NY-21- Paul Tonko- won an open seat in safe Democratic District. Safe.
21)NY-25- Dan Maffie- open seat in a Democratic leaning District. Safe.
22)NY-29- Eric Massa- unseated a controversial incumbent in a Republican leaning District. NY-GOP is weak.
23)NC-8- Larry Kisell- unseated a weak Republican incumbent in a swing District. NC-8 is Democratic at the local level. making Kissell safe.
24) OH-1- Steve Driehaus- unseated Republican incumbent Steve Chabot. Chabot is running again in 2010. OH-1 can competitive but Driehaus has close ties to OH-1.
25)OH-15- Mary Jo Kilroy won an open seat in swing District with 45% of the popular vote. Kilroy will likely lose in 2010.
26)OH-16- John Boccieri- won an open seat in swing District. Boccieri is popular in OH-16.
27)PA-3- Kathy Dahlkemper unseated a Republican incumbent in swing District. Dahlkemper- is a Jason Altmire type Democrat.
28)VA-2- Glenn Nye- unseated a weak Republican incumbent. Nye is a moderate Democrat in a pro military District.
29)VA-5- Tom Perriello unseated a controversial Republican Incumbent in a Republican leaning Congressional District. Perriello is too liberal for voters in VA-5.
30)VA-11- Gerry Connolly open seat in Democratic leaning District. Safe.