Weakest D freshman?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:16:07 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2010 Elections
  Weakest D freshman?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Weakest D freshman?  (Read 5501 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 11, 2009, 08:55:48 AM »

Who do you think is the weakest D freshman in the House? I'm not talking about the most likely to lose, like Minnick or Kratovil. I haven't heard that they're particularly weak politicians, only that they're in unforgiving districts and won under unreplicable circumstances.

My money is on Alan Grayson, FL-8. He has Pete Stark's mouth without the district or the seniority. Most recently, he's been fighting with the Orlando Sentinel. His district could be held easily by a low-profile Democrat, but I worry that Grayson is a gadfly who's going to provide ad copy for his opponent while alienating the editors.
Logged
nkpatel1279
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2009, 09:09:38 AM »

In 2008- The Democratic US House Members who lost re-election were freshman with the exception of Jefferson-LA. Mahoney-FL16 was narrowly elected in 2006 due to the Mark Foley scandal. Mahoney's loss had to do with a sex scandal. Nancy Boyda-KS-2 election victory in 2006 was a surprise. Boyda made a foolish decision not to recieve any help from the DCCC. Cazayoux-LA-6 won a special election in 2008 but lost in 2008 general election due to a Democratic third party candidate. Lampson-TX-22 who won Tom Delay's old US House seat in 2006 represented a safe Republican District.
In 2004- The Democratic US House Incumbents who lost re-election were in TX-due to Delaymandering. Sandlin,Lampson,Frost,and Stenholm plus Hill-IN which was a shocker.
In 2002- The Democratic US House Incumbents who lost re-election were Thurman-FL-5- and Luther-MN-2 redistricting. Maloney-CT-5,Phelps-IL-19,and Shows-MS-4 were placed in Incumbency vs Incumbency districts.
In 2000- The two Democratic US House incumbents that lost were Gedjenson-CT-2 and Minge-MN-2 both losses were shockers.
Logged
nkpatel1279
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2009, 09:28:16 AM »

In 1998- Jay Johnson-WI-8 who was a first term Democratic US Senator from a traditional Republican congressional district lost re-election.
In 1996- Mike Ward-KY-3- weak Democratic freshman incumbent, Harold Volkmer-MO-9 Senior US House Member whose district was trending Republican and Bill Orton-UT-3 who represented the most Republican district in the nation.
In 1994 GOP wave. English-AZ-6,Hamburg-CA-1,Schenk-CA-49,Johnson-GA-10,Barlow-KY-1,Klien-NJ-8,Mann-OH-1,Strickland-OH-6,Fingerhut-OH-19,Mezinsky-PA-13,Shephard-UT-2,Byrne-VA-11,Cantwell-WA-1,Inslee-WA-4,Kriedler-WA-9,and Barca-WA-1 were freshman Democrats.
In 2010- The weakest freshman Democrat is Perriello-VA-5- his district is pretty conservative except for the College Communities in Lynchburg. and he is not got going to benifit from a high Obama Democratic  turnout which gave him a narrow victory over Virgil Goode.
Red state Freshman Democratic US Reps like Bright-AL-2,Griffith-AL-5,Minnick-ID-1,and Kravotil-MD-1,Childers-MS-1 are popular in their districts at a local level. An anti Democratic wave will cause their seats to lose. Grayson-FL benifited from Obama coattials. In 2010- Charlie Crist- who is popular in FL-8 and McColloum-who represented FL-8 while in Congress is going to be on the ballot.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2009, 12:09:47 PM »

Minnick followed by Kratovil. Position could switch if Minnick is blessed with running against Sali again.

The most endangered incumbant overall, FWIW, is obviously Cao.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2009, 01:37:26 PM »

Minnick followed by Kratovil. Position could switch if Minnick is blessed with running against Sali again.

I agree that they're most likely to lose... I'm asking a somewhat different question in my original post.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2009, 05:02:03 PM »

Minnick followed by Kratovil. Position could switch if Minnick is blessed with running against Sali again.

I agree that they're most likely to lose... I'm asking a somewhat different question in my original post.

I see. I'd have to agree it's Greyson.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2009, 05:05:38 PM »

I will go with Dina Titus, she appear to be headed for defeat. She didn't do much to deserve such defeat, but do the changing nature of NV, appears that way.
Logged
BM
BeccaM
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,261
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2009, 05:30:29 PM »

Mary Jo Kilroy has had several awkward and embarrassing moments for someone keeping a low profile.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2009, 06:50:03 PM »

I will go with Dina Titus, she appear to be headed for defeat. She didn't do much to deserve such defeat, but do the changing nature of NV, appears that way.

Is anyone even running against her yet?

As for the topic, I'd say Kilroy and Grayson.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2009, 10:25:06 AM »

Mary Jo Kilroy has had several awkward and embarrassing moments for someone keeping a low profile.
Really? I've missed this, but am highly interested. Tell more, please.
Logged
nkpatel1279
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2009, 10:52:34 AM »

Looking at all the 2008 Democratic Freshmans.
The Alabama US Reps- Bobby Bright(AL-2) and Parker Griffith(AL-5) are in solid Red Districts- but Bright and Griffith are Gene Taylor like Conservative Democrats. The only way Bright or Griffith lose is if 2010 is a 1994 like GOP year. Since 2010 will be like 1998 or 2002- Bright and Griffith will hold on.
Ann Kirkpatrick- AZ-1 represents a competitive District. However her 17 point margin victory had to do with her Republican opponent being a Rightwing nutjob and corruption scandals involving the outgoing GOP incumbent Rick Renzi.  If Republicans nominate a JD Hayworth type Republican then Kirkpatrick wins. If Republicans nominate a Jeff Flake type Republican then Kirkpatrick can lose if 2010 is another 1994.
Betsey Markey-CO-4 represents a traditional Republican District- (Allard,Schaffer,Musgrave). Markey's double digit victory over Musgrave had more to do with Musgrave rightwing extremism. A Scott McInnis type Republican can make CO-4 competitive or Republican pickup- assuming 2010 is another 1994. A Tancredo/Musgrave type Republican makes CO-4 a Safe Democratic District.
Jim Himes- CT-4 represents a safe Democratic District.
Grayson-FL-8 represents a bellwether District.  A Charlie Crist type Republican can defeat Grayson.
Same goes for Suzanne Kozmas FL-24. - A Charlie Crist type Republican can defeat Kozmas but if Republicans nominate a Bill McCollum/Tom Feeney type Republican- then the Democratic incumbent will hold on.
Walt Minnick ID-4 is a Conservative Democrat in a pro Republican District. It will take a 1994 like wave for Minnick to lose. If Republicans nominate a wackjob like Sali or another Chenoweth- Minnick wins. If Republicans nominate another Butch Otter, then Minnick can lose.
Debbie Halverson-IL-11 represents a swing District trending Democratic. The IL-GOP party is weak. Same goes for Bill Foster IL-14.
Frank Kravotil- MD-1 is popular in the Eastern Shore Area.
The Michigan Democratic Freshmans. Schauer-MI-7 represents a swing Districts- can lose or face a tough race if Republicans nominate a moderate like Joe Schwartz but a Conservative Republican like Tim Walberg will be a Safe Democratic. Peter-MI-9 represents a Districts becoming increasing a safe Democratic District.
Travis Childers-MS-1 is a Conservative Democrat in a Republican District. Childers lose will depend on whether or not 2010 is another 1994.
Titus-NV-3 represents a district becoming a safe Democratic District.
John Adler-NJ-3 is vulnerable due to the fact he represents a Bellwether District. This race will be too close to call. Adler is safe if Republicans nominate a rightwing Conservative.
Regarding the NM Reps- Heinrich and Lujan are safe. Teague is vulnerable due to the fact his Republican opponent is former US Rep Steven Pearce. NM-2 will be a tossup in 2010.
Regarding the NY Freshmans. McMahon-NY-13,Maffei-NY-25 are safe. Murphy-NY-20 and Massa-NY-29 are vunerable but favored to win re-election.
Kissell-NC-8 is safe.
Regarding the OH Democratic Freshmans. Driehaus-OH-1 is vulnerable because he is facing a rematch against former US Rep Steve Chabot. If 2010 is another 1994- Driehaus can lose. Kilroy OH-15 is vulnerable because she underperformed- She won an open seat election with less than 50% of the popular vote and a two third party challengers getting a total of 10%. Boccieri-OH-16 is safe.
Dahlkemper-PA-3 represents a swing District- She is a perfect fit for voters in PA-3.
Regarding the VA US Reps. Nye-VA-2 and Connolly-VA-11 are safe. Nye-VA-2 military/foreign policy background is perfect fit for VA-2 and Connolly-VA-11 represents an increasingly safe Democratic District.  Perriello-VA-5 is vulnerable because of his narrow victory due to Obama/Warner coattails. Perriello-VA-5 is too liberal for voters in VA-5.

  
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2009, 11:05:54 AM »

I'm not sur Minnick is so weak, given his suprisingly popularity in certain areas, as EMD mentioned
Logged
BM
BeccaM
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,261
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2009, 01:00:17 PM »

Mary Jo Kilroy has had several awkward and embarrassing moments for someone keeping a low profile.
Really? I've missed this, but am highly interested. Tell more, please.
Nothing major but she doesn't strike me as the sharpest tool in the shed when put on the spot to explain her positions, even if she was bombarded unfairly

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJuiu_BDZnQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRIMXsKqbW4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEHx_1pGYb4

Virginia Foxx is such a tool. lol
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2009, 01:20:15 PM »

It's hard to answer questions when you keep getting interrupted by a squat white-haired witch from the Great Smoky Mountains.
Logged
nkpatel1279
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2009, 01:41:26 PM »

Freshman Democrats who lost in 1994.
1)Karan English- AZ-6 elected in 1992 in a newly created swing District by a 53-41. due to the help of popular conservative icon Barry Goldwater. Lost to JD Hayworth. Hayworth lost in 2006 Democratic wave.
2)Dan Hamburg- CA-1 elected in 1992 unseating first term Republican Congressman Frank Riggs by a 48-45 percent margin. Hamburg lost in a rematch to Riggs. Riggs won close re-election bid in 1996- and then decided to retire in 1998 rather than face a tough challenge against Mike Thompson- who now holds this seat.
3)Lynn Shenk- CA-49- elected in 1992 in a newly created swing District by a 51-43. Lost in 1994 to Brian Bilbray. Democrats won seat back in 2000- Now CA-53 is Safe Democratic District.
4)Don Johnson- GA-10 elected in 1992 by a 54-46 percent margin. Lost in a landslide to Charlie Norwood. District is now a safe Republican District.
5)Tom Barlow- KY-1 elected in 1992 with 60% of the popular vote. Loss was a shocker. District is now safe Republican.
6)Herb Klien- NJ-8 elected in 1992 by a 47-41 percent of a popular vote in a traditional Democratic District. Lost in 1994 to Bill Martini. Democrats won seat back in 1996.
7)David Mann- OH-1 elected in 1992 by a 51% margin against 3 Independents.  Democrats won seat back in 2008.
8)Ted Strickland- OH-6- electd in 1992 by a 51-49 percent margin unseating a Republican incumbent. lost in 1994 to a nutjob-Frank Cremeans.. won back in 1996 elected Governor in 2006.
9)Eric Fingerhut. OH-19 elected in 1992 by a 52-47 percent margin. lost in 1994 to Steve LaTourette - a moderate Republican in the mold of George Voinovich.
10)Marjorie Margolies Mezinksy-PA-13 elected in 1992 by a 50-50 margin over Jon Fox in a open seat. Lost in 1994 rematch. Democrats won seat back in 1998. Fox lost in a rematch to Joe Hoeffell. Now safe Democratic District.
11)Karan Shephard- UT-2 won in 1992 by a 51-47 percent margin. Lost in 1994 in a rematch to Enid Greene. Democrats won seat back in 2000. now held by Jim Matheson. Greene retired in 1996 due to scandals and Merrill Cook turned out to be a nutjob.
12)Leslie Byrne- VA-11 elected in 1992 in a newly created swing District by 50-45 percent margin. Lost in 1994 GOP revolution to Moderate Republican Tom Davis. Democrats won seat back in 2008 when Davis retired.
13)Maria Cantwell- WA-1- elected in 1992 by a 55-42 percent margin. Lost in 1994 to Rick White. Democrats won WA-1 back in 1998 (Jay Inslee). Cantwell made a comeback got elected to the US Senate defeating Slade Gorton.
14)Jay Inslee- WA-4 elected in a traditional Republican district in 1992 by a 51-49 percent margin. Lost in a rematch to Doc Hastings. Inslee made a comeback getting elected to the US House in 1998 from a neighboring Congressional District.
15) Mike Kriedler-WA-9 elected in a newly created Swing District in 1992 by a 52-43 percent margin.  Lost in 1994 wave to Randy Tate. Democrats won seat back in 1996.
16) Peter Barca- WI-1 elected in Special Election. lost in rematch to Mark Neuman.

Looking at the 2008 Democratic Freshmans.
1)AL-2 Bobby Bright is a popular Mayor of Montgomery County which is located in AL-2. He is a conservative Democrat. Republicans had a divisive primary.  
2)AL-5 is a Conservative Democratic District- It was represented by Bud Cramer.
3)AZ-1- (Ann Kirkpatrick) won a open seat in a bellwether District. Kirkpatrick is going to face a tough race but is favored to win. (Gifford,Arcuri)
4)CO-4- Betsey Markey unseated a controversial Republican incumbent in a traditional Republican District.  Markey has to be on the vulnerable list.
5)CT-4- District is a safe Democratic District. Himes benifited from Obama coattails. Without Shays. District is Himes to lose.
6)FL-8- Bellwether District. Grayson benifited from Obama coattails. In 2010. Charlie Crist and Bill McCollum who represent FL-8 is now on the ballot. A Charlie Crist type Republican can unseat Grayson.
7)FL-24- Suzanne Kozmas- similar to CO-4 Markey. unseated a controversial Republican incumbent in a district that was suppose to be leaning Republican. but can lose in 2010 to a Charlie Crist type Republican.
8)ID-1- Walt Minnick is a Conservative Democrat unseated a weak Republican incumbent.
9)IL-11- Debbie Halverson- elected in open seat. IL-11 is a swing District but Republican bench in IL is weak especially in IL-11.
10)MD-1- Frank Kravotil benifited from a divisive Republican primary- Kravotil is popular in Eastern Shore MD.
11)MI-7- Mark Schauer defeated a Conservative Republican incumbent in a swing District. Schauer will face a tough race but will win re-election.
12)MI-9- Gary Peters- defeated a weak GOP incumbent in District trending Democratic. Peters is pretty safe
13)NV-3- Dina Titus defeated an accidential Republican congressman in Obama Wave. Jon Porter won in 2002 against a scandal plague incumbent. Seat is now safe for a Democrat.
14)NJ-3- Jon Adler won a bellwether Distirict. Will face a tough race in 2010 but is favored to win.
15)NM-1- Martin Heinrich-open seat in Democratic leaning District. Safe.
16)NM-2- Harry Teague- open  seat in Republican leaning District. Republicans have a top tier recruit.
17)NM-3- Ben Lujan- open seat in safe Democratic District.- Safe.
18)NY-13- Mike McMahon is popular in Staten Island. Safe.
19)NY-20- Murphy narrowly won in a special election. benifit from Schumer/Gillibrand coattails.
20)NY-21- Paul Tonko- won an open seat in safe Democratic District. Safe.
21)NY-25- Dan Maffie- open seat in a Democratic leaning District. Safe.
22)NY-29- Eric Massa- unseated a controversial incumbent in a Republican leaning District. NY-GOP is weak.
23)NC-8- Larry Kisell- unseated a weak Republican incumbent in a swing District. NC-8 is Democratic at the local level. making Kissell safe.
24) OH-1- Steve Driehaus- unseated Republican incumbent Steve Chabot. Chabot is running again in 2010. OH-1 can competitive but Driehaus has close ties to OH-1.
25)OH-15- Mary Jo Kilroy won an open seat in swing District with 45% of the popular vote. Kilroy will likely lose in 2010.
26)OH-16- John Boccieri- won an open seat in swing District. Boccieri is popular in OH-16.
27)PA-3- Kathy Dahlkemper unseated a Republican incumbent in swing District. Dahlkemper- is a Jason Altmire type Democrat.
28)VA-2- Glenn Nye- unseated a weak Republican incumbent. Nye is a moderate Democrat in a pro military District.
29)VA-5- Tom Perriello unseated a controversial Republican Incumbent in a Republican leaning Congressional District. Perriello is too liberal for voters in VA-5.
30)VA-11- Gerry Connolly open seat in Democratic leaning District. Safe.

 


Logged
BM
BeccaM
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,261
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2009, 02:00:27 PM »

does anyone ever read this guy's walls of text?
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,403
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2009, 02:01:59 PM »

does anyone ever read this guy's walls of text?

Not me.

It's kind of funny (or sad, or pathetic) that this guy posts long stuff that nobody cares about (to be fair, he doesn't care about other posts either).
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2009, 02:50:53 PM »

does anyone ever read this guy's walls of text?

Nope- I don't.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 12 queries.