Canadian federal election, 2009 - official thread

[Hash]

That being said I suspect some Liberals privately hope there isn't one. 

Me! Although it's also because I hope those fools can hold out until August 2010, at which time I could vote myself.

Oh don't worry, there'll be an election next fall as well

Don't forget there's a municipal election as well. Alex Cullen FTW!

Municipal elections aren't real elections.

[cp]

Municipal elections aren't real elections.

LMAO. I'll make sure not to tell my ex-bf who just finished working for an NYC councilwoman's bid

I have to admit I'm of two minds about the election being called off. On the one hand, I abhor seeing Stephen Harper in office and an election is the only way to get rid of him. Also, unlike most Canadians (apparently) I like elections. They're fun!

On the other hand, the polls were going against the Liberals and for the Tories, meaning the Liberal majority I was predicting didn't look very likely. A few weeks/months of Parliament with the Liberals not pulling any punches and the NDP eating crow for supporting the Tories might turn things around; it'll also give the Tories a chance to stumble into another scandal, which they almost certainly will.

[Hatman 🍁]

That being said I suspect some Liberals privately hope there isn't one. 

Me! Although it's also because I hope those fools can hold out until August 2010, at which time I could vote myself.

Oh don't worry, there'll be an election next fall as well

Don't forget there's a municipal election as well. Alex Cullen FTW!

Municipal elections aren't real elections.

It's that kind of thinking that got us Scary Larry! Shame on you!

I love municipal elections. It means I actually have to do some research before voting!

[Hash]

Us getting Scary Larry is more the work of amalgating stupid Redneck ass-backwards rural sh**tholes into the city.

Especially Ottawa's rural areas.

[Хahar 🤔]

Amalgamation should be treated with caution. We in America have already found that out from cities like Jacksonville.

Also, boo Layton. Because I like elections.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Election or no election, candidates are being nominated all over the place - some of the most significant non-incumbents, including all the former MP's I know of:

Conservatives
Ajax-Pickering: haven't had the formal nomination yet, but the Tories have a star candidate here in Chris Alexander, deputy UN Special Representative to Afghanistan, and formerly Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan
Burnaby-DouglasNew Westminster: again no formal meeting yet, but supposedly former New Westminster-Coquitlam MP Paul Storseth is running here. (not totally clear on the reasons for the riding move)
Vancouver South: Wai Young, who came very close to knocking off Dosanjh

Liberals
Brant: former MP Lloyd St. Amand
Brome-Missisquoi: former MP Denis Paradis
Kenora: former MP Roger Valley
Haute-Gaspésie-and-a-million-other-places: former MNA Nancy Charest, who came bizarrely close for the region even in the 2008 fiasco
both Kitchener ridings: former MP's Karen Redman & Andrew Telegdi
Mississauga-Erindale: former MP Omar Alghabra (fail)
Ottawa West-Nepean: former MP and defence minister David Pratt, back for a rematch
Outremont: haven't actually held the nomination yet, but big news here as Martin Cauchon, Chrétien's justice minister who oversaw the introduction of same-sex marriage and who left politics when Paul Martin became PM, is running again. Mulcair is probably finished.
Richmond: In an astonishingly dumb move, they have nominated one-term Reform-turned-Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido after two obviously more electable Chinese-Canadian candidates (one of which was former MP and minister Raymond Chan) were so pissed off at each other after their battles for the Chinese vote that the loser's supporters went to Peschisolido on the final ballot.

NDP
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: Nettie Wiebe, who lost very narrowly last time

Greens
Saanich-Gulf Islands: The Greens have nominated Elizabeth May here, after a circus in which a local party member challenged her on the grounds that "parachuting the leader of the Green Party into a foreign bioregion and pouring in the money will not change Canadian politics by one iota. This is why I am standing as a nomination candidate for Saanich-Gulf Islands, in my Island bioregion."

[Meeker]

bioregions

[Verily]

It's never a good idea to prop up a Canadian government too long - doing so deprives me of election night suspense.

Canada should just give it up and have elections every month to keep us entertained.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's never a good idea to prop up a Canadian government too long - doing so deprives me of election night suspense.

Canada should just give it up and have elections every month to keep us entertained.

I support this.

[Smid]

It's never a good idea to prop up a Canadian government too long - doing so deprives me of election night suspense.

Canada should just give it up and have elections every month to keep us entertained.

I support this.

Could do it on a sort of by-election level to cut costs - stop holding general elections, but hold by-elections for, say, six or seven seats every month, and set it as a roster so that every seat gets an election once every four years (neither more nor less frequently)...

[Hatman 🍁]

lol...

Well, the NDP has gone from having a small hand full of candidates a month ago to 50. This pleases me, but we still have a long way to go.

[minionofmidas]

It's never a good idea to prop up a Canadian government too long - doing so deprives me of election night suspense.

Canada should just give it up and have elections every month to keep us entertained.

I support this.

Could do it on a sort of by-election level to cut costs - stop holding general elections, but hold by-elections for, say, six or seven seats every month, and set it as a roster so that every seat gets an election once every four years (neither more nor less frequently)...

No. Please. The average life of a Canadian Parliament in recent years has been two years. Can't allow to let term length grow any longer than that.

[homelycooking]

At least with Ignatieff, Liberals might be able to take back Saint Boniface or Winnipeg South-no doubt Western voters were turned off by Dion's inability to pronounce the word "buffer". That being said, it's going to be a while before Libs can compete in suburban-to-rural Ontario again. Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is probably lost forever, but maybe they can pull off a win in Brant or Peterborough, or at the very least either of the downtown Kitchener ridings. Liberal support will probably continue to erode in the Scarborough-Mississauga area, and Liberal prospects in British Columbia look pretty grim.

NDP is in danger of losing some of its Vancouver-area ridings, or maybe some in rural Ontario, like Thunder Bay-Rainy River. I think NDP will lose one or two to Liberal and PC each, and pick up a couple more, like Beaches-East York or maybe that riding in SK, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, that they lost by one point because of gerrymandering.

The Greens are going to fail to win a seat again. If Elizabeth May can't win in her home province, even with no Liberal candidate to split the vote, she hasn't a chance in Saanich.

So I think the Conservatives are going to win a majority, mostly at the expense of the Bloc. The Liberals have lost so much since 2004, and their poll ratings are in the basement, so Iggy has no chance, at least for another year or two.

[Linus Van Pelt]

With the government looking to survive into the medium term I haven't been following candidates much, but I would like to point out that, as if this country's politics were insufficiently silly, the Liberal candidate for Okanagan Coquihalla is Ross Rebagliati, who you may recall banished all other news stories from the entire Canadian media for one week in 1998 when he won the first ever Olympic gold medal in snowboarding, was disqualified for testing positive for marijuana, and then had his medal restored when the IOC ruled that marijuana was not a performance-enhancing substance.

[mileslunn]

With the government looking to survive into the medium term I haven't been following candidates much, but I would like to point out that, as if this country's politics were insufficiently silly, the Liberal candidate for Okanagan Coquihalla is Ross Rebagliati, who you may recall banished all other news stories from the entire Canadian media for one week in 1998 when he won the first ever Olympic gold medal in snowboarding, was disqualified for testing positive for marijuana, and then had his medal restored when the IOC ruled that marijuana was not a performance-enhancing substance.

My question is why the heck did he choose to run in Okanagan-Coquihalla where the Liberals haven't got a chance at winning.  He is originally from Whistler, so I think West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country would have made more sense as riding to run in since although a challenge to win, at least it is winneable for the Liberals (they won it in 2006).

[Holmes]

NDP is in danger of losing some of its Vancouver-area ridings, or maybe some in rural Ontario, like Thunder Bay-Rainy River. I think NDP will lose one or two to Liberal and PC each, and pick up a couple more, like Beaches-East York or maybe that riding in SK, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, that they lost by one point because of gerrymandering.

I'm not going to speak for any riding in particular, but the Liberal party has been bleeding support in a lot of Northern Ontario communities as of late. Some places have been hard hit (Xstrata just laid off 700 workers here, and Timmins is good at surviving recessions), and the Liberals and Conservatives are getting the blame, and the flak for not caring, either. If the next election, Harper wins his little majority, Northern Ontario ridings won't be swinging Liberal, or Conservative. Conservative candidates are seen as too out-of-touch with Northern Ontario, they don't connect at all with Franco voters(the 2007 Conservative MPP candidate couldn't even speak French, in Timmins). The Liberals can, but connecting with voters isn't so much their problem as their general lack of caring.

Same for provincial -- McGuinty can probably say goodbye to some of his northern MPPs come next election.

[mileslunn]

NDP is in danger of losing some of its Vancouver-area ridings, or maybe some in rural Ontario, like Thunder Bay-Rainy River. I think NDP will lose one or two to Liberal and PC each, and pick up a couple more, like Beaches-East York or maybe that riding in SK, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, that they lost by one point because of gerrymandering.

I'm not going to speak for any riding in particular, but the Liberal party has been bleeding support in a lot of Northern Ontario communities as of late. Some places have been hard hit (Xstrata just laid off 700 workers here, and Timmins is good at surviving recessions), and the Liberals and Conservatives are getting the blame, and the flak for not caring, either. If the next election, Harper wins his little majority, Northern Ontario ridings won't be swinging Liberal, or Conservative. Conservative candidates are seen as too out-of-touch with Northern Ontario, they don't connect at all with Franco voters(the 2007 Conservative MPP candidate couldn't even speak French, in Timmins). The Liberals can, but connecting with voters isn't so much their problem as their general lack of caring.

Same for provincial -- McGuinty can probably say goodbye to some of his northern MPPs come next election.

I suspect the Tories will hold Parry Sound-Muskoka although its questionable whether it is even Northern Ontario or not.  Kenora will depend heavily on the turnout of the aboriginal vote as the Tories won pretty solidy in the southern sections of the riding but got clobbered outside that area.  Nipissing-Timiskaming should stay Liberal as Anthony Rota is pretty popular and besides if it didn't go Liberal, it would go Tory, not NDP.  In many ways it is too far north for the Tories to win but too far south for the NDP (at least in Rural Ontario, they can win in the large industrial centres in Southern Ontario like Hamilton and Windsor).

[2952-0-0]

Another year, another proroguing.

This is getting tiresome.

[Hash]

Another year, another proroguing.

This is getting tiresome.

Harper is quite positively the worst PM since 1867.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP is in danger of losing some of its Vancouver-area ridings, or maybe some in rural Ontario, like Thunder Bay-Rainy River. I think NDP will lose one or two to Liberal and PC each, and pick up a couple more, like Beaches-East York or maybe that riding in SK, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, that they lost by one point because of gerrymandering.

I'm not going to speak for any riding in particular, but the Liberal party has been bleeding support in a lot of Northern Ontario communities as of late. Some places have been hard hit (Xstrata just laid off 700 workers here, and Timmins is good at surviving recessions), and the Liberals and Conservatives are getting the blame, and the flak for not caring, either. If the next election, Harper wins his little majority, Northern Ontario ridings won't be swinging Liberal, or Conservative. Conservative candidates are seen as too out-of-touch with Northern Ontario, they don't connect at all with Franco voters(the 2007 Conservative MPP candidate couldn't even speak French, in Timmins). The Liberals can, but connecting with voters isn't so much their problem as their general lack of caring.

Same for provincial -- McGuinty can probably say goodbye to some of his northern MPPs come next election.

I'm not so sure if Charlie Angus in bilingual, come to think of it. But everyone loves him... and the NDP MPP is a Francophone.

[MaxQue]

NDP is in danger of losing some of its Vancouver-area ridings, or maybe some in rural Ontario, like Thunder Bay-Rainy River. I think NDP will lose one or two to Liberal and PC each, and pick up a couple more, like Beaches-East York or maybe that riding in SK, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, that they lost by one point because of gerrymandering.

I'm not going to speak for any riding in particular, but the Liberal party has been bleeding support in a lot of Northern Ontario communities as of late. Some places have been hard hit (Xstrata just laid off 700 workers here, and Timmins is good at surviving recessions), and the Liberals and Conservatives are getting the blame, and the flak for not caring, either. If the next election, Harper wins his little majority, Northern Ontario ridings won't be swinging Liberal, or Conservative. Conservative candidates are seen as too out-of-touch with Northern Ontario, they don't connect at all with Franco voters(the 2007 Conservative MPP candidate couldn't even speak French, in Timmins). The Liberals can, but connecting with voters isn't so much their problem as their general lack of caring.

Same for provincial -- McGuinty can probably say goodbye to some of his northern MPPs come next election.

I'm not so sure if Charlie Angus in bilingual, come to think of it. But everyone loves him... and the NDP MPP is a Francophone.

Well, ask Holmes, it was his MP for a while.

[Holmes]

He still is, I saw him the other night. He did speak French but he spoke more in English. The conservatives don't even make an effort though, which is kinda cute.

[mileslunn]

Timmins-James Bay is probably the safest of the NDP seats in Northern Ontario.  Generally the further North you go, the better the NDP does, while the Tories by contrast are strongest in the southern areas of Northern Ontario.  I am not sure what Charlie Angus' French is like, but considering he won the last two elections by large margins, I doubt it is too big of a liability for him.  In terms of the Provincial Liberals, the next election is still a year and a half so a lot can happen.  Never mind, I believe Mike Harris outside of Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka was pretty hated elsewhere in Northern Ontario so they can always use the Harris bogeyman threat to scare people to vote Liberal to stop the Ontario PCs.  After all Tim Hudak, unlike John Tory is clearly a Harrisite and he certainly could win.  Off course whether the Ontario PCs win or not will depend a lot on how they do in the 905 (GTA suburbs), 519 (Southwestern Ontario), and 613 (Eastern Ontario), not the 416 (Toronto) and Northern Ontario which are largely irrelevant for the Ontario PCs much as they are federally.