Canadian federal election, 2009 - official thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it seems as though a fall election is inevitable, considering Ignatieff has declared he will no longer support the government. So, we're into another election season. Official thread is here!

[Хahar 🤔]

Please please please Lieberal fáil.

[Serenity Now]

ANOTHER one?? So much for First Past the Post delivering stable government..

[Tetro Kornbluth]

ANOTHER one?? So much for First Past the Post delivering stable government..

Britain has (at least in parliament) a very stable federal system. If the SNP and PC run 60-75% of the seats in Scotland and Wales every election then....

Personally I'm still a bit shocked that Michael "Newsnight Review" Ignatieff is leader of the opposition.

Any prospect of a Liberal-NDP coalition if they get a majority together?

[minionofmidas]

What are the NDP's prospects looking like right now?

[MaxQue]

ANOTHER one?? So much for First Past the Post delivering stable government..

Any prospect of a Liberal-NDP coalition if they get a majority together?

No. Not until Michael ''Closet Conservative'' Ignatieff is not the Liberal leader anymore.

[The Mikado]

So...will this be an even bigger Tory win?

How's the BQ doing?  Has it stopped its decline?

[Hash]

So...will this be an even bigger Tory win?

I would lean towards saying 'no' outright, but knowing how dumb some voters can be and how easily they can be convinced wrongly of something by the powers that be, I'll keep it at 'probably not'. But we actually have a leader that can speak English now, so that's good.

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Mediocre, as ever. And a good Liberal showing seriously threatens them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Personally I'm still a bit shocked that Michael "Newsnight Review" Ignatieff is leader of the opposition.

Lol! Quite.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

ANOTHER one?? So much for First Past the Post delivering stable government..

Blame Quebec and the BQ.  Absent them, the Commons right now would be:

Cons: 133
Lib: 63
NDP: 35
Vacant: 2

for a solid Conservative Majority in the 233 seat Commons.

FPTP does deliver stable government, provided that you do not have successful parties that only campaign for a portion of the seats.  Save for Ulster, local parties have not been near as successful so far in Britain as the BQ.  If the SNP regularly elected 40 MPs, the PC elected 27 MP's and the MK elected 3 MP's so that getting a majority required getting 60% of the other seats, there would be awfully few majority governments in Britain.

[Verily]

What are the NDP's prospects looking like right now?

They will probably lose a little bit of ground on 2008 simply because the Liberals actually have their act together this time. Ironically, Dion was actually closer (much closer) to the NDP politically than Ignatieff, but people are much more likely to make their decisions based on how they feel about the party leaders rather than actual positions, and everyone in Canada wanted to stick it to Dion.

Anyway, I think the Liberals may regain largest party status, partially because they have an institutional advantage in the event of a near tie. (The Liberals win few seats with more than 50-55% of the vote because their safest seats tend to have substantial NDP and Green votes, but the Conservatives win their safest seats with 65+% of the vote because the smaller parties also do not have significant votes in such seats. Tactical voting almost always works in the Liberals' favor, too, except in parts of Montreal.)

A really early forecast would be something like:

Liberal: 119
Conservative: 112
BQ: 45
NDP: 32

And that result would just suck for everyone.

[the506]

I see it differently. If Ignatieff goes through with his threats, he'll be deemed the culprit for forcing an unneeded election and he'll be the one who will be punished at the ballot box.

All things being equal....I don't see any drastic shifts. Everyone will end up within 5-10 seats of where they are now.

[Хahar 🤔]

I see it differently. If Ignatieff goes through with his threats, he'll be deemed the culprit for forcing an unneeded election and he'll be the one who will be punished at the ballot box.

Trudeau wasn't punished in 1980.

[Hash]

I see it differently. If Ignatieff goes through with his threats, he'll be deemed the culprit for forcing an unneeded election and he'll be the one who will be punished at the ballot box.

Trudeau wasn't punished in 1980.

Yeah. The 'man who called the election will be punished' phrase is often used at the outset by the media who having nothing useful to say, but it's rarely true in the end. People who do end up voting aren't those who didn't want an election, usually.

[Hatman 🍁]

the Liberals and Tories have been in a statistical tie throughout the summer, although the Tories have been pulling away a bit recently. The NDP which was polling dismally is getting a post-convention bump, and is in a good spot heading into the election. Campaigns are everything for the NDP, as we saw last time. I haven't payed any attention to the Bloc #s to be honest.

[Meeker]

Why would Ignatieff want an election now?

[Hatman 🍁]

Why would Ignatieff want an election now?

I guess he thinks he can win.

[Meeker]

Why would Ignatieff want an election now?

I guess he thinks he can win.

Are the Liberals still cash-strapped?

[Smid]

Why would Ignatieff want an election now?

I guess he thinks he can win.

Are the Liberals still cash-strapped?

I believe they've had money coming in over the past month, which I think is the answer to both questions.

[Hatman 🍁]

Indeed. Ignatieff is popular among right-of-centre Liberals. Most of his support is coming from the Tories.

[cinyc]

Why would Ignatieff want an election now?

Well, there is that little matter of the economy sucking right now and possibly recovering by next year.  That's a pretty good incentive to drop the writ sooner rather than later.  It's easier to blame a bad economy on the Conservatives than have to fight them while taking the credit for an economic rebound.

There also will be a redistribution of ridings in the medium term future, with Western Canada and suburban Toronto gaining seats while other areas stagnate.  Doing the math, after a redistribution, it might be possible for the Tories to win an outright majority without making significant inroads in Quebec.  Quebec and the Bloc have stymied chances for a majority government more than anything else over the past 5 years or so.

[Franzl]

Can we finally talk about a coalition?

I'm certainly not a NDP fan....but anything to stop these constant minority governments.

[Hash]

Can we finally talk about a coalition?

I'm certainly not a NDP fan....but anything to stop these constant minority governments.

No, coalitions are illegal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Can we finally talk about a coalition?

I'm certainly not a NDP fan....but anything to stop these constant minority governments.

No, coalitions are illegal.

lol

[Lief 🗽]

Canada has one of the most fascinating party systems in the world, and I'm very excited about reading about this election.