Canadian federal election, 2009 - official thread

[Хahar 🤔]

The Liberal brass seem to have overlearned the lessons of Dion putting forward grand ambitious plans long before the election, giving the Tories lots of time to attack them, and are playing very small-bore, with not much policy on anything.

So it's the opposite of 1993?

[cp]

Hmm, interesting comparison. Admittedly, there were a lot of big issues in the 1993 election (NAFTA, Meech Lake, GST) so a comprehensive approach was a pretty good way to sell the Liberal Party. This isn't too say this election won't have big issues too - don't believe the Tories when they say there's no need for an election - it's just not as clear what they'll be yet.

I may live to regret putting this in writing, but I've got a gut feeling that the Liberals are going to do really well, possibly even winning a slim majority. It comes from two reasons

1. I think the Liberals have learned how to campaign again (better funding, unified caucus, strong leader) while the Tories are sagging a bit under their own incumbency.

2. Purely anecdotal. My brother is a card-carrying Conservative and despised the Liberals under Chretien and Martin. But he's admitted to me that not only does he like Iggy but he also can't/won't vote for the Tories anymore because of all the broken promises (the Senate and the stimulus are the two biggies, but there are more as we all know). If someone as anti-Liberal as my brother is willing to switch sides, we just might be in for a surprise.

[cp]

Hey, sorry for the double post but I think you'll all appreciate this.

I saw this on a Tory blog today. It's an analysis of the Liberal defeat in 2008. Makes for interesting, albeit technical, reading for the Canadian politics buff.

http://www.thepolitic.com/archives/2009/09/03/keys-to-victory-in-the-next-federal-election/

http://ces-eec.mcgill.ca/documents/Anatomy%20of%20a%20Liberal%20Defeat.pdf

It's conclusions are a bit meager because it doesn't include Quebec as part of the analysis. IMHO the entire election will swing on what Quebec does. If Iggy can sell himself to the Quebecois he can win a lot of seats from the Bloc and even get a boost in Ontario from the halo of being a leader who can win in Quebec. If not, the Liberal campaign won't ever get off the ground.

On separate notes:

Earl: the BQ is pretty much where they've been for the past couple years, mid-30s. I don't expect it to go much below that, but I'd be surprised if it got above 40% again.

cynic: While redistributing the seats may increase the riding total in 'Tory' areas like BC and Alberta, the process of redistribution also involves redrawing the riding boundaries. Even without conscious gerrymandering this can/might produce more ridings where the Liberals and NDP have the advantage.

I see it differently. If Ignatieff goes through with his threats, he'll be deemed the culprit for forcing an unneeded election and he'll be the one who will be punished at the ballot box.

Trudeau wasn't punished in 1980.

Nor Harper in 2008

[Hash]

I see it differently. If Ignatieff goes through with his threats, he'll be deemed the culprit for forcing an unneeded election and he'll be the one who will be punished at the ballot box.

Trudeau wasn't punished in 1980.

Nor Harper in 2008

Or Charest in 2008!

[cp]

Haha, I didn't remember that one!

Come to think of it, it seems like the one most responsible for calling an election gets *rewarded* more often than not:

Harper in 2006, 2008
Chretien in 2000
Trudeau in 1968, 1974, 1980
Pearson in 1965
Diefenbaker in 1958

You could even argue Martin in 2004 and Chretien in 1997 were 'rewarded' with victories that they ought not to have achieved given their unpopularity and poor campaigning. Maybe we're on to something here . . . (not to mention eager for this next election!)

[minionofmidas]

Canada has one of the most fascinating party systems in the world, and I'm very excited about reading about this election.

Yeah. It's a large part of why I keep watching that ongoing fptp trainwreck.

[minionofmidas]

And cp, please don't abuse Iggy's



good name to refer to a mediocre novelist. Thanks in advance.

[cp]

Sorry, what? I don't understand the reference.

[minionofmidas]

Sorry, what? I don't understand the reference.

Ah. You're not reading the entire forum then.

Afleitch has been posting pictures of that toy bear called Igg or Iggy for a while now. Iggy is an independent candidate for parliament from Bearsden (which is a real town but not a real constituency).

[Verily]

Why would Ignatieff want an election now?

Well, there is that little matter of the economy sucking right now and possibly recovering by next year.  That's a pretty good incentive to drop the writ sooner rather than later.  It's easier to blame a bad economy on the Conservatives than have to fight them while taking the credit for an economic rebound.

There also will be a redistribution of ridings in the medium term future, with Western Canada and suburban Toronto gaining seats while other areas stagnate.  Doing the math, after a redistribution, it might be possible for the Tories to win an outright majority without making significant inroads in Quebec.  Quebec and the Bloc have stymied chances for a majority government more than anything else over the past 5 years or so.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, the areas of British Columbia that are growing are also quite NDP/Liberal-friendly, making for new competitive seats, not solid Conservative territory. And adding an extra seat to Edmonton, for example, would probably just secure the NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona, a seat that in the long run the Conservatives should otherwise be able to win back. And of course growth in metro Toronto helps the Liberals. Also, in other provinces, redistribution means contraction towards the cities--it's very hard to see how Saskatchewan could be drawn without an NDP seat again, and the seats in places like rural Nova Scotia and New Brunswick would also decline in favor of Halifax and the small cities, most of which are growing.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories may benefit a bit in Ontario, since the outer 905, which is growing rapidly is fairly Conservative. Also, they will probably gain a seat in suburban Ottawa as Nepean-Carleton will split up.

[cinyc]

Why would Ignatieff want an election now?

Well, there is that little matter of the economy sucking right now and possibly recovering by next year.  That's a pretty good incentive to drop the writ sooner rather than later.  It's easier to blame a bad economy on the Conservatives than have to fight them while taking the credit for an economic rebound.

There also will be a redistribution of ridings in the medium term future, with Western Canada and suburban Toronto gaining seats while other areas stagnate.  Doing the math, after a redistribution, it might be possible for the Tories to win an outright majority without making significant inroads in Quebec.  Quebec and the Bloc have stymied chances for a majority government more than anything else over the past 5 years or so.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, the areas of British Columbia that are growing are also quite NDP/Liberal-friendly, making for new competitive seats, not solid Conservative territory. And adding an extra seat to Edmonton, for example, would probably just secure the NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona, a seat that in the long run the Conservatives should otherwise be able to win back. And of course growth in metro Toronto helps the Liberals. Also, in other provinces, redistribution means contraction towards the cities--it's very hard to see how Saskatchewan could be drawn without an NDP seat again, and the seats in places like rural Nova Scotia and New Brunswick would also decline in favor of Halifax and the small cities, most of which are growing.

I didn't say the Tories would win an outright majority after redistribution without making significant inroads in Quebec - just that it might be possible.   Quebec's undying support for the Bloc seems to block the chances of a CPC majority happening today.  Yes, ridings will be redrawn with a redistribution.  But I don't see how the Tories wouldn't pick up seats in new Alberta and exurban Toronto.  Competitive B.C. elections tend to be three-way races in many places - and that probably wouldn't change regardless of how maps are drawn.

The Tories aren't all that strong in Atlantic Canada to begin with - especially outside of New Brunswick.  And they might pick up a riding or two in Newfoundland if Danny Williams doesn't throw a fit in the next election.

[cp]

And they might pick up a riding or two in Newfoundland if Danny Williams doesn't throw a fit in the next election.

Don't count on it

Seriously, though, I think it's a bit premature to predict gains for any of the parties based on the redistribution of seats. There's only about 10 being added and the rest of the electoral map isn't likely to change so marginally that any changes would probably be averaged out.

Also keep in mind that you're extrapolating this theoretical improvement in Tory fortunes based on the current political arrangement. Tory competitiveness outside the 905 isn't a sure thing, nor is continued Liberal/NDP strength in the Lower Mainland. Party fortunes can change pretty quickly even in politically monochromatic places like Alberta. They went from SoCred dominance to Tory dominance in just 4 years.

On that note, while the Bloc is certainly eats up a lot of seats I doubt there are many Quebecois who have 'undying support' for them. Many voters park their votes with the bloc because it's a safe bet - the least of all evils. The most diehard sovereigntists think the bloc has sold out. In any case, if the bloc disappeared tomorrow most of its supporters would turn to the Liberals and NDP. The Tories are toxic in Quebec.

[2952-0-0]

I'm awaiting the fireworks.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/09/prime-minister-stephen-harper-video-marjority.html

[Jens]

I'm awaiting the fireworks.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/09/prime-minister-stephen-harper-video-marjority.html

Is marjority some Canadian version of majority?

[Lief 🗽]

I'm awaiting the fireworks.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/09/prime-minister-stephen-harper-video-marjority.html

"Mr. Ignatieff doesn't seem to look like he's going to back down, and Mr. Harper is not the kind of man who makes compromises or who achieves consensus … so I think the chances of an election are great — more than great," Duceppe said.

lol

[Linus Van Pelt]

An important lesson: the government's fall is never guaranteed when it takes three opposition parties with separate ideologies and interests to co-ordinate their no-confidence vote. Duceppe has announced that the Bloc will support the autumn's budget motion, so Harper seems to be off the hook for now.

It's not completely obvious to me that Harper actually wants this, since the Tories want a majority and are hoping to get it by campaining against the Liberal/NDP "coalition with the separatists" (however disingenuous/inaccurate that might be), so it wouldn't shock me if he actually put in something unpalatable to the whole opposition between now and the actual introduction of the motion on Friday in order to engineer his own defeat. (Though still <50% chance of this, I think).

[cp]

That budget motion is just for this week. There's two more confidence votes (at least) scheduled before October. Wait for those.

[cp]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/jack-and-gilles-have-gone-up-the-hill/article1292624/

To paraphrase Earl (speaking in 2008 of Dion) "Layton's a p*ssy". Looks like the election's off for now.

[Hash]

Good job NCP uh NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/jack-and-gilles-have-gone-up-the-hill/article1292624/

To paraphrase Earl (speaking in 2008 of Dion) "Layton's a p*ssy". Looks like the election's off for now.

Shucks, I'm thinking most people are quite grateful. I don't think Layton's scared, I just think he's trying to be smart.

[mileslunn]

The NDP probably has the most to lose by going to an election now.  That being said I suspect some Liberals privately hope there isn't one.  The two parties were tied around Labour Day, but most recent polls showing the Tories pulling ahead and in fact they've even pulled ahead in Ontario.  This off course could be the backlash for an early election and I still think the Liberals could pull off a win, but it would be an uphill battle.

[Hash]

That being said I suspect some Liberals privately hope there isn't one. 

Me! Although it's also because I hope those fools can hold out until August 2010, at which time I could vote myself.

[Hatman 🍁]

That being said I suspect some Liberals privately hope there isn't one. 

Me! Although it's also because I hope those fools can hold out until August 2010, at which time I could vote myself.

Oh don't worry, there'll be an election next fall as well

Don't forget there's a municipal election as well. Alex Cullen FTW!

[minionofmidas]

It's never a good idea to prop up a Canadian government too long - doing so deprives me of election night suspense.