Houston 2009 Mayoral Election

[riceowl]

Just wondering if anyone has anything interesting to impart about this race (looking at you, Sam), since I can't seem to find any good polling data and I can't prognosticate.

[Sam Spade]

I don't even know who's running actually.  Let me check.

I've rarely seen any polling done there and since it's non-partisan, historically the voters have decided along racial lines.

[Sam Spade]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houston_mayoral_election,_2009

[riceowl]

Helpful.

[riceowl]

*bump

who will make the runoff?!

[Sam Spade]

*bump

who will make the runoff?!

I'm guessing Brown, because he's spent more money than anyone else *by far*, including going into the black community (which has worked for white politicians in Houston in the past).  

Then Parker because she's spent second-most and is kind of a known name, and will get the white liberals and the unmentionables in Montrose (she is one of them).  

The black candidate, Locke, has not done much advertising, so I don't even know if the blacks know who he is.  He does stand a shot, but I think it's low.

Morales (the Republican/conservative in the non-partisan race) has spent no money either, but you can't necessarily count him out because of his name and because there is always a loud, vocal conservative minority in Houston who may not trust Brown.  That might be enough to get him to a runoff.  I don't think so.

So, in short, Brown and Parker.

Full Disclosure:  Spade's family benefits quite a lot if Brown eventually wins.  He's also as corrupt as the day is long.  Not because my family benefits, of course. 

[riceowl]

this unmentionable voted for her! 
but she's also a rice grad.  and i think she's best for the job.  what's to do?

it'll be interesting how the runoff plays out no matter who makes it.

well, not so much if it's brown v. locke.  then i couldn't really care less.

[Sam Spade]

this unmentionable voted for her! 
but she's also a rice grad.  and i think she's best for the job.  what's to do?

it'll be interesting how the runoff plays out no matter who makes it.

well, not so much if it's brown v. locke.  then i couldn't really care less.

I have a rule that I would never vote for a Rice grad for elected office. 

[riceowl]

i'll try not to run!

[riceowl]

cool; parker seems to be holding steady in the lead, and brown looks to be finishing 3rd and not go to the runoff! 

[riceowl]

aaaaaaand the hate campaign begins.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6719878.html

good thing the guy who's endorsement locke is getting is my good (also gay) friend's uncle.  fun family politics time!

[Magic 8-Ball]

Yeah...Locke's going to win.


Then again, I thought the runoff would be between Locke and Brown, so that shows just how much I'm following this race.  It'd be nice if they did more polling.

[CatoMinor]

Pretty positive Parker is gonna win.

[Sam Spade]

Parker is the more competent candidate from what I've seen (I don't think either is very competent, even by Houston standards), but...

Coalition of blacks (at least 30% or about 1/3rd of voters usually) + social conservative Republicans (about 1/5 in Houston, maybe as much as 1/4th of voters usually) = majority.  Michael Berry won his at-large seat originally by utilizing these two groups.

Remains to be seen whether Locke can form this coalition, of course.  Parker should win otherwise.

EDIT:  Social conservative Republicans should be social conservatives.

[Magic 8-Ball]

So, the last two polls both showed Parker ahead.

Locke's internal poll had Parker up 43%-39%, with a four-point margin of error and 18% undecided.  cite

Parker's internal poll had her up 47%-34%, with a margin of error of 3.5% and undecideds at 19%.  cite


Hmm...with these polls and Brown endorsing Parker and all, I may have to change my hastily crafted prediction.  Still want more polls, though.

[riceowl]

i know Hotze is off to his daughter's wedding in south carolina this weekend...SURELY he's too busy to make an impact

[jimrtex]

Bob Schieffer's brother has withdrawn from the governor's race and endorsed Bill White.  White will announce by Friday week (the 4th) whether he is switching races.

Were he to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, it is not really clear what effect that would have on a special senatorial election, especially if it were held in November 2010.

If the special election were held before November, he could run in that, and if he won, the Democratic party could name a new gubernatorial nominee.

But if the special election were held in November, he could not run for both offices.  If he voluntarily withdraws from the gubernatorial party, the party can not replace him.  The only way they could do that is if the party determined that he were ineligible.  In the case of legislative candidates, this has sometimes been accomplished by the candidate moving out of his district (Texas requires one year district residency before the election).  But for a statewide office he would have to move out of state, or be convicted of a felony, die or suffer a catastrophic illness - none of which would be particularly effective strategies for someone running for senator.

Or maybe there won't be a special senatorial election.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

White is probably going to just switch over to Governor, since he can transfer his money (no contribution limits in Texas). That'll leave John Sharp in the theoretical Senate race.

I'm betting KBH will just not resign, since she just keeps backpedaling on it.

[Sam Spade]

KBH isn't resigning unless she wins the primary and I'm sure then she would make sure the election occurs in November.

If she wins the primary, Bill White is a dead duck.  He can beat Perry, however (even though the environment probably won't be favorable).

I think that covers it all.  I'm not really giving the Dems a chance of picking up the Senate seat in a November election, though it could happen, I guess.

[Sam Spade]

So Zogby did a poll for the Houston Crapsicle, and it said -

Parker 41.9%
Locke 36.4%
Lots of undecideds.

FWIW. (maybe two cents)

Btw, Spade's father, after voting for Parker in the general (he did that, even though Brown obviously benefited him and would have voted for him in the runoff - go figure), will be voting for Locke in the runoff.  He met Locke personally and thinks he's better for business (though he probably is leery of the gays - I can understand).

Spade's mother is still undecided (and voted for Parker in the first round as well).  I suspect she votes for Parker in the end, because, well, she's a liberal and I can predict how she votes.

[Magic 8-Ball]

So Zogby did a poll for the Houston Crapsicle, and it said -

Parker 41.9%
Locke 36.4%
Lots of undecideds.

FWIW. (maybe two cents)

Btw, Spade's father, after voting for Parker in the general (he did that, even though Brown obviously benefited him and would have voted for him in the runoff - go figure), will be voting for Locke in the runoff.  He met Locke personally and thinks he's better for business (though he probably is leery of the gays - I can understand).

Spade's mother is still undecided (and voted for Parker in the first round as well).  I suspect she votes for Parker in the end, because, well, she's a liberal and I can predict how she votes.

While I resent any Zogby poll seeing the light of day, I suppose it's fitting that it is in the Chronicle.

Did you see the debate?  While both were unimpressive, Locke struck me as particularly dense.

[Meeker]

Very close with early and absentee votes in...

Parker: 50.99%
Locke: 49.01%

[Eraserhead]

What is it with the insanely close mayoral races this year?

[Sam Spade]

Right now, we're merely in guess mode.  And this is way too close to call.

My gut questions whether this is good for Parker because I suspect Locke's voters will lean towards being same day (especially blacks), but this analysis could be completely wrong.

The question is whether "hate-a-gay" or "hate-a-black" triumphs, honestly.

[CatoMinor]

Very close with early and absentee votes in...

Parker: 50.99%
Locke: 49.01%

Much closer than I expected.