By a fluke of the gods: Poher succeeded de Gaulle permanently
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  By a fluke of the gods: Poher succeeded de Gaulle permanently
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Author Topic: By a fluke of the gods: Poher succeeded de Gaulle permanently  (Read 1516 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« on: August 24, 2009, 01:15:04 PM »

Yes, I know It's little probable, but let's say that Interim President Alain Poher went to defeat Georges Pompidou and thus became oficially the 2nd President of the Fifth Republic

How you see a history in such case?
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2009, 04:53:36 PM »

We must think harder about it.

But, well, some lil' things to begin:

Would he have dissolved the National Assembly, which was an archi-Gaullist one ?

Even if the 1968 election was already organized after a dissolution, it was after Pompidou insisted a lot upon de Gaulle. With Pompidou surprisingly defeated, he would have had less power and influence.

So I think Poher would have dissolved, and there would have been a fight inside the right and the centre-right, that the Gaullists would have won.

Either the Gaullists would have won big, and inside the UDR the more rightists, and they would have forced Poher to live in a sort of early cohabitation, maybe with Messmer as PM.

Or the Gaullists would not have won big and a government of the centre and the right would have resulted from this election, with Chaban-Delmas or Edgar Faure as PM.

More later (policies after 1969 and politics after 1969, 1974, 1976, etc).
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2009, 05:02:19 PM »

We must think harder about it.

But, well, some lil' things to begin:

Would he have dissolved the National Assembly, which was an archi-Gaullist one ?

Even if the 1968 election was already organized after a dissolution, it was after Pompidou insisted a lot upon de Gaulle. With Pompidou surprisingly defeated, he would have had less power and influence.

So I think Poher would have dissolved, and there would have been a fight inside the right and the centre-right, that the Gaullists would have won.

Either the Gaullists would have won big, and inside the UDR the more rightists, and they would have forced Poher to live in a sort of early cohabitation, maybe with Messmer as PM.

Or the Gaullists would not have won big and a government of the centre and the right would have resulted from this election, with Chaban-Delmas or Edgar Faure as PM.

More later (policies after 1969 and politics after 1969, 1974, 1976, etc).

One change is clear: there wouldn't be special presidential election in 1974, unless of course due to butterflies something happens to Poher

I'd also say that in this particular time, it's hard to imagime 5th Republic continue without gaullist, or neo-gaullist, President like Pompidou, who, despite all differences with his great predecessor, continued his vision of system.

For the same reason I'd vote for de Gaulle in 1965 instead Mitterrand 
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Hashemite
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2009, 05:05:09 PM »

There was a piece about this in the Revue française de science politique which I read. And now I can't find it. Damn. I need to hunt it down.
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2009, 05:12:47 PM »

We must think harder about it.

But, well, some lil' things to begin:

Would he have dissolved the National Assembly, which was an archi-Gaullist one ?

Even if the 1968 election was already organized after a dissolution, it was after Pompidou insisted a lot upon de Gaulle. With Pompidou surprisingly defeated, he would have had less power and influence.

So I think Poher would have dissolved, and there would have been a fight inside the right and the centre-right, that the Gaullists would have won.

Either the Gaullists would have won big, and inside the UDR the more rightists, and they would have forced Poher to live in a sort of early cohabitation, maybe with Messmer as PM.

Or the Gaullists would not have won big and a government of the centre and the right would have resulted from this election, with Chaban-Delmas or Edgar Faure as PM.

More later (policies after 1969 and politics after 1969, 1974, 1976, etc).

One change is clear: there wouldn't be special presidential election in 1974, unless of course due to butterflies something happens to Poher

I'd also say that in this particular time, it's hard to imagime 5th Republic continue without gaullist, or neo-gaullist, President like Pompidou, who, despite all differences with his great predecessor, continued his vision of system.

For the same reason I'd vote for de Gaulle in 1965 instead Mitterrand 

My 1974 was referring to the legislative election... 5 years after "new" legislative elections in 1969.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2009, 08:02:47 AM »

Well, I guess your predictions are quite accurate. Anyways, I'd see Fifth Republic going back in the way of parliamentarism. Maybe Poher would manage to re-establish the Proportional Representation and the indirect election of the President. Anyways, the battle between gaullists and centrists inside the right would have been very harsh in the next decade.
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