Rasmussen: IL Senate, Kirk + 3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Illinois senate race will certainly be a referendum on the Obama performance. If Obama gets the economy to turn around and he gets his health care reform through, which the Coops sounds better and better everyday, the senate race won't be a problem. But, if he has trouble, this Senate race will be easy pickings.

[Bacon King]

According to this poll, 14% of Illinoisans have a strong opinion of Kirk, while 24% have one of Giannoulias. At this point in most people's minds this race is basically Generic R vs. Generic D. Considering how bad the Democratic brand is in Illinois state politics right now (according to this poll, 29% of voters less likely to vote Democratic because of Blago) this result is entirely expected. Pay attention to the number of undecideds though, especially the 37% of independents. Though this poll does display a lot of the strengths and potential advantages Kirk has going into this race, these actual numbers don't really mean much- the candidates haven't really even begun to define themselves to the voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most of all redistricting will play a part in this race, the Republicans did themselves no good in opposing Sotomayor.  Redistricting will show and increase in the Latino population in the northwest suburbs like Schumburg, Arlington Heights and Dupage County.  The redistricting map will not be finished by then, but the votes of those immigrants will play a role in electing Giannoulias our next Senator from Illinois.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Kirk will not win. The Dems could lose PA, DE, CT, but they're not gonna lose IL.

Republicans said the same of AK, NC and VA (in 06) i'm sure. Dems shouldn't get complacent with a still rocky economy and an apparently bungled attempt at health care reform. Although, I really hope Kirk doesn't pick up this seat.

If the Dems lose ANY one of IL, PA, DE, or CT, it will be their fault.  Kirk, Simmons, and Castle are ok moderates, but their states are just too Democratic and there's no way they should win and in the case of DE, you have Beau Biden.  PA could vote for a GOP candidate, but Toomey is too far to the right for the Southeast and I doubt he'd win a single county in the region- Chester included.  No one has won PA without at least 3 of the 5 and Specter or Sestak would be unbeatable there.   The rest of the state could not outvote the Southeast and I think Sestak could match or beat Toomey in the grittier blue collar areas of the state.

I agree on MO but I would hesitate before calling Rob Portman and Kelly Ayote "weak GOP Candidates" Fisher and Hodes are not exactly strong Dems in the mold of Mark Warner or Bob Casey either.

[Lunar]

I've never heard of a single Republican on this board upset with Portman or Ayotte as candidates. 

[IllinoisFreedomFighter]

Most of all redistricting will play a part in this race, the Republicans did themselves no good in opposing Sotomayor.  Redistricting will show and increase in the Latino population in the northwest suburbs like Schumburg, Arlington Heights and Dupage County.  The redistricting map will not be finished by then, but the votes of those immigrants will play a role in electing Giannoulias our next Senator from Illinois.

Isn't redistricting when they change the congressional districts?  Even so, how would this effect a senate race which is statewide.  Everyone in Illinois votes for their senator regardless of their congressional district and whether or not that changed in 2002, or will change in 2012.

[pogo stick]

I've never heard of a single Republican on this board upset with Portman or Ayotte as candidates. 

Me neither. Both are Pro-Life so that should keep the religious right happy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most of all redistricting will play a part in this race, the Republicans did themselves no good in opposing Sotomayor.  Redistricting will show and increase in the Latino population in the northwest suburbs like Schumburg, Arlington Heights and Dupage County.  The redistricting map will not be finished by then, but the votes of those immigrants will play a role in electing Giannoulias our next Senator from Illinois.

Isn't redistricting when they change the congressional districts?  Even so, how would this effect a senate race which is statewide.  Everyone in Illinois votes for their senator regardless of their congressional district and whether or not that changed in 2002, or will change in 2012.

Minorities have held the most powerful offices in the state of illinois. Regardless of turnout, they have helped Dems maintain the majority in all elected offices.  Dan Seals will be on the ballot and it will help the base turnout for him.  But, that's why have elections and we will have to wait and see.

[muon2]

Most of all redistricting will play a part in this race, the Republicans did themselves no good in opposing Sotomayor.  Redistricting will show and increase in the Latino population in the northwest suburbs like Schumburg, Arlington Heights and Dupage County.  The redistricting map will not be finished by then, but the votes of those immigrants will play a role in electing Giannoulias our next Senator from Illinois.

Isn't redistricting when they change the congressional districts?  Even so, how would this effect a senate race which is statewide.  Everyone in Illinois votes for their senator regardless of their congressional district and whether or not that changed in 2002, or will change in 2012.

Minorities have held the most powerful offices in the state of illinois. Regardless of turnout, they have helped Dems maintain the majority in all elected offices.  Dan Seals will be on the ballot and it will help the base turnout for him.  But, that's why have elections and we will have to wait and see.

The effect of Seals will not be what you think. My reply in the other thread applies here as well.

Seals is running in the 10th CD, which only has significant minority populations in Waukegan and North Chicago. None of the Cook County minority areas will be influenced by Seals. This also assumes that Seals survives his primary challenge from State Rep Hamos so that there can be an effect on the general election.

[SamInTheSouth]

Registration is a poor barometer for predicting an election outcome.

[Lunar]

Mark Kirk seems like a bright enough man to do these calculations himself

everything is so assertive on the forum lately.