Maine's Question 1

[Holmes]

Mary did a great job for the No side... she took the bait for the polygamy rhetoric though. But the Yes debater kinda made a lot of weird gaffes that went in circles... mmyeah.

The most awkward part was when he went on about how the law says that if you disagree with same-sex marriage, you're a bigot, and how in reality, you're not... he went on for like 2 minutes. Yeesh.

My favourite quotes...

Yes:
"There is no separation of church and state in the constitution."
"Does it make me a bigot because I want to protect traditional marriage?"
"Separation of church and state has to do with keeping the state out of religion."
"I'm not a lawyer, and not comfortable talking about legal aspects."
"This radical redefinition of marriage erodes the values and hurts children."

Among others about special interests and how marriage is all about procreation and nothing else, and if this law passes then we won't have another generation.

No:
"If No wins, then there will be an outbreak of happiness. And weddings. And joy."
"Schools need to create environment where ALL children feel comfortable, safe, and respected."
"I don't see how my marriage is going hurt Brian Souche's ability to raise a family."
"In regard to economic benefits, providing equality to everyone is priceless."

[Holmes]

Why is Yes on 1 asking university students to vote?


New kos poll on Question 1

No - 48 (+2)
Yes - 47 (-1)
Undecided - 5


New ads!

No on 1
Yes on 1

How nice to see Yes on 1 going back to fear mongering after flirting with positivity in their previous ad. This one is cute... "DON'T BE FOOLED! IT WILL HAPPEN! YOUR LITTLE SON WILL BE TAUGHT ABOUT GAY GAY GAY JUST LIKE IN OTHER STATES! IT WILL HAPPEN!"

[Alcon]

Why is Yes on 1 asking university students to vote?

Meh.  This is the same issue that came up when we were deciding whether to dispatch sign-wavers to an intersection by a megachurch/Christian academy.  If the anti-gay people are going to have visibility there, visibility is already established; the wrong people are already being reminded about the election, so at that point it becomes a resource allocation issue.  If you can get better raw numbers than, say, by dispatching volunteers to a small church, it's smart enough.  Plus it gives a sense of social viability in a voting population group inclined toward apathy.

Also, some strategists are morons who think that visibility is inherently good, as if pro-X people are reminded by a "VOTE FOR X" sign and anti-X people don't see the sign or something.  It's always possible that it's that.

[East Coast Republican]

What's going on in Maine with the Vote Yes on 1 movement is absolutely disgusting.

[tmthforu94]

I think "Yes" will win in the end. There will be a % of people, who will tell everyone they're voting no, trying to look all gay rights. But in the end, I think there will be some people that at the end of the day, don't feel letting two people of the same sex marry. It didn't pass in California, despite the state's liberalness. If it didn't make it through there, I don't think gay marriage will make it in Maine either.

[Holmes]

^ Don't worry, Maine is very homogeneous(96% white, independent, sense of community[biggest city is 62k not counting the metro]), less catholic than California, and the no campaign is running a real campaign. Not to mention the No side has 8000+ volunteers to GOTV this weekend and on election day, and the Yes side... doesn't.

Maybe you're just underestimating California's liberalness, although we still could've won there last year. But anyway.

What's going on in Maine with the Vote Yes on 1 movement is absolutely disgusting.

You think so?

[Sbane]

I think "Yes" will win in the end. There will be a % of people, who will tell everyone they're voting no, trying to look all gay rights. But in the end, I think there will be some people that at the end of the day, don't feel letting two people of the same sex marry. It didn't pass in California, despite the state's liberalness. If it didn't make it through there, I don't think gay marriage will make it in Maine either.

I think you are overstating California's liberalism, especially social liberalism. Southern California is much more populist than it is liberal. Just see how well Bush did there in 2004. But in a year like 2008 with the economy collapsing they swung back to the democrats. The bay area is of course very socially liberal but it only makes up about 20% of the voting population. The central valley is very socially conservative and so is a large chunk of Southern California. It wouldn't be very surprising if states in the northeast or the pacific northwest states would be more receptive to gay marriage than California. The bay area may be the most liberal metro area in the country on the gay marriage issue, but it doesn't matter as much on the larger scale of California politics.

[Holmes]

[Oops, I meant to say overestimate in the previous post, not underestimate]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9Ec1m5nH3k

This story was on the news statewide news last night. The yes couple just talks about religious right talking points, and even have their children chime in. And the no couple is just some boring lesbian couple of 24 years with kids. Cute contrast.

GOTV meeting pics:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ndAyv4BjPbk/SunBG3uN_1I/AAAAAAAABAI/H0Qjl02KhkE/s1600-h/Screen+shot+2009-10-29+at+12.13.56+PM.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ndAyv4BjPbk/SunA5aGzKiI/AAAAAAAABAA/t1E_jiMbZHA/s1600-h/Screen+shot+2009-10-29+at+12.14.40+PM.png
http://wockner.blogspot.com/2009/10/maine-gay-marriage-battle-update-1.html

[Holmes]

Watch these local news stories:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnjuNrA8Nf8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8Y-lpvUVCI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQAcB-RW3lY

Sigh. How sad and annoying. And the Yes campaign has too many signs, in all the same places. Reminds me of McAullife.

eta: In regards to the sign vandalism, this guy thinks the Yes campaign did it to themselves to fire up their base. And that it's a hate crime... what?

[Hash]

I think "Yes" will win in the end. There will be a % of people, who will tell everyone they're voting no, trying to look all gay rights. But in the end, I think there will be some people that at the end of the day, don't feel letting two people of the same sex marry. It didn't pass in California, despite the state's liberalness. If it didn't make it through there, I don't think gay marriage will make it in Maine either.

I think you are overstating California's liberalism, especially social liberalism. Southern California is much more populist than it is liberal. Just see how well Bush did there in 2004. But in a year like 2008 with the economy collapsing they swung back to the democrats. The bay area is of course very socially liberal but it only makes up about 20% of the voting population. The central valley is very socially conservative and so is a large chunk of Southern California. It wouldn't be very surprising if states in the northeast or the pacific northwest states would be more receptive to gay marriage than California. The bay area may be the most liberal metro area in the country on the gay marriage issue, but it doesn't matter as much on the larger scale of California politics.

Yeah, California isn't a tree-hugging pot-smoking hippie social liberal state like most people in the US think it is.

Obviously, go NO.

[Sbane]

I think "Yes" will win in the end. There will be a % of people, who will tell everyone they're voting no, trying to look all gay rights. But in the end, I think there will be some people that at the end of the day, don't feel letting two people of the same sex marry. It didn't pass in California, despite the state's liberalness. If it didn't make it through there, I don't think gay marriage will make it in Maine either.

I think you are overstating California's liberalism, especially social liberalism. Southern California is much more populist than it is liberal. Just see how well Bush did there in 2004. But in a year like 2008 with the economy collapsing they swung back to the democrats. The bay area is of course very socially liberal but it only makes up about 20% of the voting population. The central valley is very socially conservative and so is a large chunk of Southern California. It wouldn't be very surprising if states in the northeast or the pacific northwest states would be more receptive to gay marriage than California. The bay area may be the most liberal metro area in the country on the gay marriage issue, but it doesn't matter as much on the larger scale of California politics.

Yeah, California isn't a tree-hugging pot-smoking hippie social liberal state like most people in the US think it is.

Obviously, go NO.

Well some parts of it most certainly are, but not the whole state is. The bay area is the most liberal area in the country and I am not denying this but it is only 20% of the state. The LA area is about as liberal as any typical northern US metro area. On the issue of gay marriage it didn't vote that much differently than the Detroit or Cleveland metro area (and I am obviously including the IE in the LA area). San Diego is similar. On the issue of pot....well in that regard California is very liberal (north and south) but that is more a testament on how conservative the rest of America is on the issue.

[Хahar 🤔]

LA is a typical metropolitan area, in that the cities vote Democratic and the suburbs Republican. San Diego is somewhat to the right of LA, but a good Democrat can carry it. In the Bay Area, on the other hand, the cities and suburbs both vote Democratic.

[Holmes]

PPP has it 51 - 47 for yes. With younger voters support No by only 3%?

What a surprise considering their track for the night.

[East Coast Republican]

Their track hasn't been questionable in the past.

With that said, I expect Yes on 1 to pass in Maine.  Another humiliation for human rights.  The day when people realize there is nothing wrong with people of the same sex marrying cannot come fast enough.

[Holmes]

I dunno, every other poll has it going the other way, plus the young vote being that closely divided is questionable. And they will show up. Granted, not as much as they did for Obama, obviously.

There's only one more day left to contemplate polls anyway, and you might be happy to know that the No on 1 side has the better GOTV effort. They had 500 canvassers each day this weekend, and thousands of phone bankers, and those same people will show up again for Tuesday to get people to the polls.

When the Yes on 1 side isn't crying about a "possibility" that something will discussed in class, they're busy planting hundreds of signs in the same area and whining to the media that two or three got vandalized.

[Holmes]

Just anecdotal stuff right now. Weather is good, not raining and sunny in some places. Some volunteers are saying that some polling locations are having record turnout for off-off year elections, mostly in Portland.

Final No on 1 rally part 1, part 2

In Portland. Drew a good crowd for short notice.

[Hash]

No, no, no, no, no all the way!

[Franzl]

No, no, no, no, no all the way!

[Phony Moderate]

No, no, no, no, no all the way!

[Dan the Roman]

http://www.openleft.com/diary/15805/gametime-by-Adam-Bink

Matthew Dunlap now thinks that turnout could reach 50% rather than the 35% he predicted or the 23% of the last off-year elections. I really think PPP was out to lunch here on turnout. That said, incidental reports suggest they were right on everywhere else. It is probably just unfamiliarity with Maine, and the local dynamics.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm very much worried about this one.  Terrified, even.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

No, no, no, no, no all the way!

[Dan the Roman]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1109/Turnout_high_in_Maine.html?showall

Turnout high in Maine

Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap told me just now that turnout there is far exceeding his projections -- news that would be good news for backers of same-sex marriage.

"We're seeing heavy and very steady turnout," he said, attributing the surprise to the contested vote on a "people's veto" of a same-sex marriage law driving Mainers to the polls.

The city of Bangor -- Maine's third largest, and likely to tilt against repeal -- is projecting turnout over 50%, he said, and local analysts have said that higher turnout would likely favor the marriage law.

"I think we could be over 50%" for the state," Dunlap said. "We originally projected 35%."

The day is "comfortable," he said, by local standards, partly cloudy with weather in the upper 40s. The polls close at 8:00 p.m.
Posted by Ben Smith 01:28 PM

[Meeker]

Awesome. As someone stated earlier, this (and R-71) are the only things that really matter in the long-term so it's good to see it going well.

[Eraserhead]

The early word seems promising here. Good, we'll need a few bright spots tonight.