Maine's Question 1

[Holmes]

I like how the No side is now saying that the other side is trying to harm kids from diverse families (and it's not too hard considering Yes is attacking books and videos teaching about diverse families) ... I mean, I know this is really the first time a campaign for same-sex marriage uses the kid argument and it probably won't be that effective at first, but if it can win some votes, who knows.

Occasionally you'll find the "all gays have AIDS" and "everyone and their mom will get sued for no reason" arguments.

oh cool so they're getting their talking points from my dad

Is there something you want to share with us?

[Holmes]

Here it is - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKBkVF6aexA

I also read an editorial about how divorce rates are lower in states with marriage equality, and one of the comments was like "What a great article in support of question 1! Let's send those homosexual activists packing!" Obviously someone can't read.

[Lunar]

another fantastic ad: going after their opponent's strengths

Catholic voters voting on their faith
and they're the ones protecting the institution of marriage

[Holmes]

http://www.wgme.com/newsroom/top_stories/videos/wgme_vid_869.shtml

No on 1 has the cell phone users vote? No way.....

[Lunar]

Next they're going to say No is winning pet owners who who make their small dogs wear sweaters

[Holmes]

$$$

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The NO on 1 campaign, which released its campaign revenues and expenditures in accordance with Maine campaign finance laws, offered these highlights from Q3, the latest reporting period:

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[/quote]


There was a press release/thing from Yes on 1, but like... it was just them complaining that No on 1 totally outraised them, homosexual activists, this is SERIOUS, hamasecsual marriage to 5, 6, 7 year old... blah blah. Here's a run down:

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No on 1: $2.7 million
Yes on 1: $800k ($400k in debt, only $66k CoH :o)

[Holmes]

Also: why is Yes on 1 asking for money by saying it'll help air ads and stuff when it'll probably go to pay off their $400k debt? whatevs.

[Holmes]

From the Pan Atlantic SMS Group

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM41_omnibus_fall_2009.html

[Lunar]

This is great news, especially the fundraising...they're doing better than Harry Reid in a tiny state.

I fully expect the prop to fail, based upon how well put together the campaign is. 

[Lunar]

Maybe the HRC is good for something after all.  The Yes on  8 folks had a natural base of conservative money base in CA before even start looking at Utah...I'm not sure there is such a thing in the small states in the Northeast...and, since the law was passed legislatively, there is less of a procedural argument to make against the gay marriage folks.

[Holmes]

Paul Hogarth was volunteering in Maine the other week, but he's gone now(so no more blog updates ). But he made one recently talking about how we can win in Maine. Has some good insider perspective(all his entries about Maine do... good reads).

http://www.beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=7446


And early voting officially starts statewide today!

[Holmes]

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/2357628

It's almost an hour long, if anyone is interested. Ack, I've been following this campaign too much. I was able to mouth quite a bit of both side's talking points... ha.

And this is cute, the Harry Potter Alliance is going to Maine next weekend. They're gonna have some concert thing, then have about 100 volunteers canvassing for the day. I've never heard of these people before, but I'm not complaining about 100 canvassers.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/10/15/harry-potter-alliance-asks-maine-muggles-to-oppose-gay-marriage-repeal/

[Holmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YWDTbGBivc

sigh.

If this law stays, kindergardeners will be taught what gay sex is, because some 8th grade teacher in Massachusetts thought about telling her class what's legal in the state.

[Lunar]

I like the kissing and hugging in the background.

Interesting ad strategy, they basically want to have people thinking about two gay guys plowing each other when they vote.  Probably the right bigotry-based strategy, but that particular ad seems a bit banal

[Holmes]

Mmm, I guess so. The Massachusetts teacher was a sex-ed teacher for what it's worth, plus all the references to sex in the ad might stir up some abstinence-only program supporters to move more into the yes column. Maybe. All of Yes on 1's ads have basically been about mobilizing the base to get out, though. Not targeting swing voters/independents like the no side.

Portland has to order 2000 additional absentee ballots. 25,000+ absentees mailed statewide. They've been working hard on getting supporters to vote absentee. Early voting in person began yesterday.

[Lunar]

dawg, you're part of this campaign, but this one is done, we won

The No folks are just doing everything right, and the Yes folks don't have their act together.  


hard to believe the gays can win anything held to popular vote, isn't it?  I can imagine that even if the polls showed No winning by a 40 point margin, a number of stalwarts would refuse to believe it, because of how many times they've seen the public be total d-bags

[Holmes]

Oooh, Yes on 1's spokesman is the owner of the site "As Maine Goes"? Well, that's not really important.

Bangor Daily News endorses No on 1. Yeah, paper endorsements aren't worth much anymore, but it's a pretty old/influential and conservative-ish paper in the 2nd CD fwiw. Plus there is a number of people up there without internet who still read the papers.

[Tender Branson]

PPP, which is showing a tight race for Q1 tomorrow, on the "Milk-Effect" (or whatever it is called when people voice support for homos in polls, but not in the voting booth):

Looking at Gay Marriage Polling

Our Maine poll tomorrow is going to show a much rosier picture for opponents of same sex marriage than two other polls released recently by Pan Atlantic SMS and Democracy Corps, which showed the referendum failing by an average of 51/42.

It is of course always possible that we're wrong. But I think it's more likely that this is one issue where automated polls might have an advantage over live interviewers. There is probably some segment of the population that knows opposing same sex marriage is wrong and not intellectually defensible but still does. Those are the kinds of folks who might tell an interviewer what they believe they should think rather than what they do think.

Perhaps someone with more time can do a more thorough look at how polling on gay marriage and affirmative action bans reflected the actual results, but on Proposition 8 in California last year three IVR polls from SurveyUSA showed it passing by an average of 47/46 while the Field Poll and Public Policy Institute of California, both using live interviewers, showed it failing by an average of 51/44. It's a limited sample size but there was an eight point difference on the margin between live interview and automated polls. And of course the ultimate result, passage by a margin of 52-48, was not something any pollster showed in the last couple weeks of the campaign.

Because the referendum is so close we're probably going to sneak in another poll of it between now and November 3rd.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/looking-at-gay-marriage-polling.html

BTW, why is this in "2010 elections" ?

[Holmes]

Mmm, everyone knows it's close. But I hope yes isn't ahead. NOM will probably say that they increased their support by like 10% in less than a week. Cause their ads about gay sex are working.

No on 1 is out with a new ad today. It's alright. I kinda don't like the beginning, it kinda goes in the opposite direction of every other ad they've released.

No on 1 press conference on Yes on 1 lies: Part 1, Part 2


(I put this in the 2010 elections board because it's not a Gubernatorial or State Legislature race, or a Congressional race. Maybe we could use a ballot initiative board. )

[Eraserhead]

I won't be surprised if "yes" pulls out a close upset. Lunar's little victory dance is pretty ridiculous.

[Lunar]

Sometimes it's easiest to guess the nature of my posts by how late at night I post them.

[Holmes]

Ughh, these people are so annoying. Nothing in the law about education, over 400 state lawyers say there's nothing to do with schools, and the attorney-general and the education commissioner says that same-sex marriage won't be taught in school if no wins.

But their only argument for the last month and a half has been, "it might be taught." It must be like talking to a 3 year old child that sadly convinces a lot of voters.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ughh, these people are so annoying. Nothing in the law about education, over 400 state lawyers say there's nothing to do with schools, and the attorney-general and the education commissioner says that same-sex marriage won't be taught in school if no wins.

But their only argument for the last month and a half has been, "it might be taught." It must be like talking to a 3 year old child that sadly convinces a lot of voters.

unfortunately, plenty of people really do believe it.  Tolerance and acceptance is scary!  (Just like a lice and let live attitude.)

[Linus Van Pelt]

What does it even mean to teach same-sex marriage, or any kind of marriage, in school?

[Holmes]

What does it even mean to teach same-sex marriage, or any kind of marriage, in school?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8j2y9WtTPw

I don't know, probably they're talking about same-sex marriage being discussed in class or something, or maybe they're talking about teachers teaching kids how to pair up with another boy or girl, go to city hall and fill out a marriage license under Party A and B. Because that happens.

Also, lice can be scary.