A Time For Unity - The Lost Decades - A Tale of a Potential Future

[Dan the Roman]

To make matters worse for the President, the military was not even being effective at restraining violence. While they found it difficult to police public rallies, it was impossible to protect all Democratic activists all the time. Individuals who were loud in support of a federal presence would disappear only to be found by the side of the road 36 hours later with a number of broken bones. It was said that while the US Army battled to win the day, the ‘Patriots” ruled the night.

They also ruled the schools once they reconvened in September, where children of proponents of a federal presence found themselves harassed physically and socially. Stationing soldiers in schools was impossible, and Progressive superintendents    and School Committees proved reluctant to punish perpetrators with more than a slap on the wrist.

By October, fully convinced that the soldiers would not open fire, the Progressives became more assertive, and on October 7th, 13,000 “Patriots” armed with automatic weapons marched through Cambridge, one of the centers of Democratic support. The sight, broadcast on television to the whole nation of armed paramilitaries marching nearly half a year after the army was sent in had a crushing political impact. People became concerned that the President’s policy was ineffective, either because it was not applied toughly enough, or was turning tyrannical.

Polls at the Beginning of the Intervention and at the November Election

April 12th 2019
Strongly Approve 38%
Somewhat Approve 19%
Somewhat Disapprove 13%
Strongly Disapprove    29%

Do You Approve of the President’s Decision to Use Federal Troops to Restore Order?
Yes 64%
No 31%

December 21st 2019
Strongly Approve 23%
Somewhat Approve 11%
Somewhat Disapprove 14%
Strongly Disapprove    51%

Should the Troops be Withdrawn?
Yes 53%
No 44%


The situation was a boon for Progressive organizing, making them the story of the week all summer, and in the fall they realized that they could take over the media cycle by staging any sort of confrontation. Outside Massachusetts, recruitment sped up by as much as 500%.

The President was furious in the aftermath of the march, but what frustrated him the most was that on November 5th, both Virginia and New Jersey elected Progressive Governors. New Jersey might have been foreseeable, but Virginia had no history of Progressive organization, and the party had fielded only 1 congressional candidate the previous time.

Virginia
Sam Marshall(P) 36%
James Howell(R) 34%
Will Englin(D)    29%

New Jersey
John Balboni(P) 40%
James Sweeney(R)  31%
Will Levy(D)             29%

Determined to break the backs of Progressive resistance he signed an executive order banning the position of any automatic or semi-automatic weapons by para-military groups, or the public display of firearms. He also demanded of congress the authority to try political violence in the Federal Courts.

The first proposal almost derailed the second, causing an outcry from the NRA, and being impossible in effect enforce. A series of raids on private homes in late November resulted in the YouTube spectacle of US Army soldiers storming residence and pointing weapons at children. By January it was all but abandoned.

This was unfortunate, because it was actually reasonably effective in scarring Progressive supporters on the ground when other policies had failed. It was effective to the extent that people began begging the party to take back their weapons, and several raids on de facto state arsenals in December, lost amidst the images of pregnant woman crying at gunpoint, had seriously depleted their arsenals.

It was far more effective than the second law, which succeeded in reminding everyone why the federal courts don’t handle criminal cases. Initially successful in producing a dampening effect, with the US Attorneys indicting 1800 individuals in the month of December alone, it rapidly became clear that there was no capacity to try them, and by the federal pull-out in February, only 160 had appeared in court.

With the Presidential campaign starting up, Governor Walton and his inner circle decided that the end of December to up the ante. Protests against the troops became a daily phenomenon, and began to feature high school students throwing stones and fruit at the troops. Increasingly under fire, moral began to drop massively.

This was a prelude to January 5th, 2020, when during a confrontation outside Faneuil Hall, a crowd of around 400 “Patriots” surrounded 9 soldiers who had gone in to eat. Grabbing garbage, rocks, anything they could get their hands on they closed in. The soldiers fired into the air, or tried to, but with the crowd closing in, three of them fired on the crowd. A 21 and  a 23 year old male were injured, and a 17 year old girl, Rebecca Stark was hit in the head. She died in a hospital later that afternoon.

[Person Man]

Putsch! Putsch! Putsch!

[Dan the Roman]

The country was horrified, as the President attempted to reiterate his determination to continue. Governor Walton saw the opportunity, and in cities across the nation crowds took the streets carrying Rebecca’s picture. The martial law states were all but shut down, and with the nation focused on the protests elseware, the ones in Massachusetts and Connecticut turned violent as Patriots began to seize the streets in street fighting, attacking opposition homes. Determined to restore order the President ordered the troops out, only to have one company mutiny.

The Army was not the only mutinous body. The Progressives, seeing their opportunity, toppled the Republican leadership in both houses of congress, voting Democrats into both, who then introduced articles of impeachment against President Pence. On January 21st, with 12 million people in the streets of the country, the House voted 238-193 to impeach the President.

Normally the process would have continued to the Senate where the motion would have failed with somewhere over the majority but less than two-thirds. However, on a motion proposed by the Progressives, the Senate Republicans voted to go into recess for two weeks before a vote. This allowed them to hear from a public that was less than enamored of the current Administration.

President Pence Approval Ratings Rasmussen

November 1st 2018
Strongly Approve 29%
Somewhat Approve 14%
Somewhat Disapprove 25%
Strongly Disapprove    32%

April 12th 2019
Strongly Approve 38%
Somewhat Approve 19%
Somewhat Disapprove 13%
Strongly Disapprove    29%

Do You Approve of the President’s Decision to Use Federal Troops to Restore Order?
Yes 64%
No 31%

December 21st 2019
Strongly Approve 23%
Somewhat Approve 11%
Somewhat Disapprove 14%
Strongly Disapprove    51%

Should the Troops be Withdrawn?
Yes 53%
No 44%


January 20th 2020
Strongly Approve 12%
Somewhat Approve 7%
Somewhat Disapprove 18%
Strongly Disapprove    63%

Should the Troops be Withdrawn?
Yes 62%
No 33%

It also allowed the President to hear from the military. On the 24th of January, a delegation of senior military commanders had visited him and informed him that his orders were no longer being respected by the occupying troops, and that any further commitment would “break the army”. They urged him to resign for the good of the country, and indicated that the Joint Chiefs would resign en masse if he did not.

President Pence spent the next few hours attempting to judge his ability to survive the resignation of his senior military commanders, conferring with Vice President Perry and his cabinet. Every member of his cabinet with the exception of Jim DeMint at DHS suggested he should resign, and DeMint made his comments conditional on having the votes to survive impeachment.

That afternoon, Perry spoke with Republican Senate Leader David Dewhurst, who indicated that he had barely had the votes before, but with the news of the military ultimatum, it was far too close to call. Futhermore, no one wanted to be the 34th vote to sustain the President in office.

Pence at this point determined to resign, but he wanted to be sure Perry would succeed him the Progressives and Democrats had also introduced articles of Impeachment aimed at the Vice President. In an emergency meeting between the Joint Chiefs, the House Speaker, and the Senate Majority Leader, it was agreed that if Pence would resign, the charges against Perry would be dropped. The Progressives were expected to oppose it, but Senator Martin(UP-MA) indicated that after consultations with Governor Walton, the Progressives would be willing to tolerate Perry’s ascension on the condition that all federal troops were withdrawn.

They need not have worried had they been aware of another meeting that had taken place after the military ultimatum had been delivered.T he Chairman of the Joint Chiefs had met with his fellow officers, and in words that were ominous for the future expressed the view that the US Army could not survive another crisis of the sort that had occurred over the last 11 months. Desertion, mutiny, a collapse in enlistments, they were even under threat of having their domestic strength eclipsed by the “Patriots”. He therefore asked them for an oath to pursue a policy of complete neutrality from hereon out in political matters. Only in the case of armed effort to seize control of the state would they intervene..

Walton had won. The Progressives had scored a decisive victory. They had stood down the US Army and beat them, gaining untold prestige. For 10 months, they had been the most important political issue, and in the months of occupation, local organizations grew rapidly in all fifty states. In fact, the Patriots had increased in membership from 135,000 at the start of the crisis to nearly 400,000 at the end, and the 2020 elections promised to be extremely fertile. As such, it was no surprise that both Rick Perry and many a Democrat and Republican alike had difficulty sleeping that unusually cold January night, the last of the Pence Presidency.

[Person Man]

Gee....you are pretty good. How long were you thinking us this?

[Dan the Roman]

Gee....you are pretty good. How long were you thinking us this?

The basic outline of events over a year, though most of the stuff I came up with takes place later on, namely in the immediate lead up to power and the first six months in office.

Oh and to add to Pence's difficulties, while he was attempting to fight a domestic civil war, the Supreme Court legalized Gay Marriage nationally. Of course he was too busy to care, and the Progressives had no need to become involved with it because they also had other concerns. Frankly almost everyone in politics at this point has more important things to think about.

Perry is inheriting a political graveyard, but the very desolation in some ways makes his job easier. The Democrats are a dis-organized mess, and his most serious opponents are viewed as both northerners and as slightly scary fascists by a large portion of the population. There are votes to be had in being the anti-Progressive party. The Center is badly battered, but it could hold. Well for now. But in the long-run some sort of miracle is required, and god seems to have been taking his vacation days this decade.

[Person Man]

Watcha doin overseas, anyways? I haven't been overseas in like 8 years... I used to go overseas every year...but that was long ago.

[Dan the Roman]

Watcha doin overseas, anyways? I haven't been overseas in like 8 years... I used to go overseas every year...but that was long ago.

Graduate school. Did my undergraduate degree in the US and had such a good time doing study abroad I decided to go back after graduating. Right now I am focusing on Iranian Politics for my degree. Though I am finishing it up at the end of August, so dissertation is competing a bit for my time.

[Person Man]

So, are you a Doctoral or Master's candidate?

[Dan the Roman]

So, are you a Doctoral or Master's candidate?

At the moment finishing up my Masters. In a Doctoral program but I may take time off. Doing some stuff for the Baker campaign freelance now, and may work there, depending how things look in a few months.

[Person Man]

So, are you a Doctoral or Master's candidate?

At the moment finishing up my Masters. In a Doctoral program but I may take time off. Doing some stuff for the Baker campaign freelance now, and may work there, depending how things look in a few months.

Hmmm...shouldn't have gotten my law degree and held out for my MA or MPA...or should have gotten the dual MPA/JD. ...there's just no fun in being a new attorney. ...otoh, it appears that publishers and policy kids have more fun...or is that just the movies?

[Dan the Roman]

So, are you a Doctoral or Master's candidate?

At the moment finishing up my Masters. In a Doctoral program but I may take time off. Doing some stuff for the Baker campaign freelance now, and may work there, depending how things look in a few months.

Hmmm...shouldn't have gotten my law degree and held out for my MA or MPA...or should have gotten the dual MPA/JD. ...there's just no fun in being a new attorney. ...otoh, it appears that publishers and policy kids have more fun...or is that just the movies?

Well I had a lot of fun last month, and managed to generate quite a bit of attention. Everyone has forgotten about Iran.

My parents have warned me that starting attorneys have it hard these days. All my friends at Law School are having real trouble.

[Person Man]

Yeah. Law School is a toughie...and now I am studying for the bar. I had to return to my nest in the seculed plains of Western Wyoming after graduating and leaving my last jackass of a date. At least if I survive the bar, I will never be in want again....hopefully...Hell...I think its worth the extra $20,000 a year (I hope) and at least outside of studying, I have time to finish losing my weight. It feels good to be in 32s again...

[Dan the Roman]

Yeah. Law School is a toughie...and now I am studying for the bar. I had to return to my nest in the seculed plains of Western Wyoming after graduating and leaving my last jackass of a date. At least if I survive the bar, I will never be in want again....hopefully...Hell...I think its worth the extra $20,000 a year (I hope) and at least outside of studying, I have time to finish losing my weight. It feels good to be in 32s again...

Ah, now I have no more stress for the LSAT. I am signed up for the September one, but mabye I would be better off doing poorly.

[War on Want]

Woah shit just hit the fan. So is NRA starting to side with the Progressives?

[Dan the Roman]

Woah shit just hit the fan. So is NRA starting to side with the Progressives?

More that they were displeased with President Pence's efforts to seize firearms, and failed to see the forest for the trees, ie. that there might be a reason why someone who spent their entire political career defending the second amendment might suddenly think this was a good idea.

[Person Man]

Keep it up!!

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah, this is great. It's probably the most realistic future timeline I've ever seen, and this is despite its highly unlikely premise.

[Dan the Roman]

(A bit of background on what else was going on up to Perry's ascension.

Vice President Perry’s ascension to the Presidency occurred at an inauspicious moment. While national attention had been riveted on the events at home, domestic politics had largely been in a sense of stasis. Not so with international affairs. The Middle East, so long the center of American attention, began almost overnight to polarize towards a new Cold War.

The military regime in Saudi Arabia, recognizing its own lack of stability bowed to pressure in the street and appointed a provisional government which organized new elections. These, held in January 2019 were a disappointment both for Western liberals, and for their Wahhabli nemesis, as the Followers of the Line of the Mahdi swept 55% of the popular vote and 70% of the seats in the constieunt assembly. To the surprise of many, the Mahdi, rather than taking power himself, appointed a technocratic government including several prominent human rights activists, and approved a Constitution which while enshrining Islam in law, guaranteed freedom of speech, association, and surprisingly religion.

To the surprise of many, the reverberations of the Revolution were felt everywhere in the region, but nowhere more prominently than in Yeman where the Followers of the Line of the Mahdi had also organized themselves against the regime of President Al-Saleh. After months of street battles the Yemani regime fell in August, and in a referendum organized in September, 73% voted for unification with the rump Saudi state, now renamed the Caliphate of Mecaa.

The Caliphate’s expansion continued in December as the fallout from the 500,000 refugees expelled by the Israeli government of Avidigor Lieberman destabilized the weak Jordanian Monarchy, a situation made worse when King Abdullah was killed in September by a Palestinian in retaliation for a raid on a refugee camp by Jordanian military forces. The political crisis, combined with riots in the streets, led the rump government to request US and EU intervention. But with the EU split down the middle politically between France, Britain, Italy, and the Low Countries on one hand, and Germany on the other, no help could come from that direction. Nor was the US military in any condition to intervene. Faced with a deteriorating security situation on its borders, Caliphate forces moved in on December 1st, and clashed with Syrian forces that had moved in from the north.

At the same time Iran’s petition for membership in the SCO was approved. This came at a time at which the SCO was growing more assertive. Frustrated by a guerilla war in which they had lost nearly 7000 soldiers, SCO forces comprised of Chinese and Russian units moved in to Uzbekistan to depose the regime of President Islam Karimov, exacerbating their problems, but putting them in a position where only Turkmenistan separated them from their allies in Iran.

The US was mostly a bystander to these events. While the US could deploy naval forces, the tying down of nearly 100,000 troops domestically, and the need to rotate troops out of those deployments placed a strain on American resources. The same sort of stasis occurred in domestic politics. With a Presidential campaign in 2020, candidates would normally have rushed to announce by the Spring or Summer of 2019, especially given the problems the incumbent Administration had faced. But the Democrats, still suffering under the unpopularity of the later Obama administration, and smarting from defeats in what should have been a successful 2018, produced a slew of candidates. Prominent among them were New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, Pennsylvania Governor Jack Wagner, and Maryland Governor Chris Van Hollen.

An interesting situation was created, given that Wagner, as the only Conservative, had an advantage in terms of split votes, and though the proportional primary system counteracted this substantially.

Furthermore, the focus of national attention on the situation in the Northeast made a response to the Progressives a major issue, especially given the high likelihood that Michael Walton would be a contender for the Presidency. Important therefore in Wagner’s view, was that the Democrats nominate a candidate who could win over voters in non-traditionally democratic regions. He also felt that the Democrats needed a positive economic message tow in back those voters and that part of the reason for the rise of the Progressives had been the failure of Obama to actually deliver on issues like healthcare and rebuilding the industrial economy. He ran on a platform of economy first, and suggested that he would be open to a coalition at the federal level with the Progressives.

Wagner was by far the candidate most feared in Boston, but he had one fatal weakness in the Democratic primary; he was Pro-life. Liberal voters, having lived under what for them was a far-right administration for the last four years while simultaneously facing a Progressive onslaught were not willing to compromise on that this year. And with public interest in the race non-existent in January, they were the ones who turned out.

The results in Iowa therefore demonstrated this split in the Democratic Party.

Iowa January 10th 2020

Wagner 31%
Cuomo 29%
Van Hollen 27%
Others 13%

Most disturbingly, 45% of Wagner supporters indicated that they would not support the other Democrats in the general.

After Iowa another factor interrupted the Democratic Primary race. New Hampshire was scheduled to host the second primary, but in the final days of the federal intervention the state was in little condition to host any sort of election. Manchester and Concord were shut down, and for any of the candidates to even host meetings was dangerous. Both Wagner and Cuomo partially solved this by attempting to bring in out-of state Democratic volunteers who could fight off the Progressive crowds, but this mainly served to worsen the security situation. In the “Battle of St. Anselm”, the last Democratic Primary debate fell into anarchy when a young woman stood up to demand to know where the Democrats stood on the “War Crimes of the Pence Administration” as the crowd broke into chants and began denouncing the Democrats as accomplices since the Democrats in DC had supported the Administration. When security tried to evict them, they found that a crowd of several hundred armed Patriots had gathered outside who now forced their way in, several of them armed and began making for the stage only to encounter the Democratic toughs. A full melee broke out as the Democratic candidates had to be evacuated out the back. Two dozen were hospitalized, and the televised images were far more important than the primary which was rendered almost moot when the Progressives announced that participation in a primary while “under occupation” was tantamount to collaboration, and the Patriots indicated they would retaliate against those who took part. As a result, a mere 15,000 turned out to vote, mostly in liberal areas where the combined federal and democratic presence was strong enough to allow participation.

Nevertheless, up until this point there was still a feeling that the Republicans would not be a factor. This belief was blasted, when Perry moved rapidly after taking over to position himself as a figure of national unity. He fired several of the more conservative cabinet secretaries, and as a sign of unity, nominated Secretary of State Coakley to the vacant Vice Presidency, while indicating to the Republican party that he wanted her on his "non-partisan" ticket of national unity.

[Person Man]

Is this it?

[Dan the Roman]

Is this it?

No, but its a busy period. I am moving back to the states, and packing up after being here a year is pretty tedious. I also have two other assignments to finish by a deadline tomorrow evening, one of which I am being paid quite a bit on.

[Person Man]

What I meant to say is whether or not this is the breaking point in the storyline, where power is assumed.

[Dan the Roman]

What I meant to say is whether or not this is the breaking point in the storyline, where power is assumed.

No, one more final act. Walton might be able to win the election if he really wanted too, but as will be made clear, he doesn't. Obama proved that there is no point showing up in Washington without overwhelming support. Michael Walton has no desire to be President with 25 Senators, especially given his likely bad relations with the other parties. Better to let them destroy themselves.

Washington is a poisoned chalice. His approach is to strip it of authority gradually.

[Person Man]

So, he's where Paul was just before reproclaiming the Dukeship in Dune.

[Historico]

So ITTL Dan, I assume Rick Perry bested Kay Bailey in the 2010 Texas GOP Primary for Governor, that's how he's able to stay viable 6 years down the line or did he decide to do a big switch/go for the Senate? Also with all the civil strife of Pence adminstration, did NASA make it back to the moon by 2020 with the Constellation project? Can't wait to see how the 2020 general election turns out Dan...Keep it comming

[Dan the Roman]

So ITTL Dan, I assume Rick Perry bested Kay Bailey in the 2010 Texas GOP Primary for Governor, that's how he's able to stay viable 6 years down the line or did he decide to do a big switch/go for the Senate? Also with all the civil strife of Pence adminstration, did NASA make it back to the moon by 2020 with the Constellation project? Can't wait to see how the 2020 general election turns out Dan...Keep it comming

Rick Perry beat KBH, which as of now I think looks likely.

Perry will be an interesting contrast with Pence. Pence was an ideas person and highly ambitious, and that led him to repeatedly overreach himself. Perry is an opportunist, with questionable principles, but that makes him a better politician as will be seen in the next section.