The distant future. The ultimate question for America.

[Person Man]

What do you think? I think the current incarnation of the U.S. could be brought to the end soon,  but I do think that America, like China is destined to be a more or less eternal indivisible continent that swings between civil war and isolation and global dominance.

[Padfoot]

I can't see us going into a civil war anytime soon but I do think we are nearing an end to the era of US dominance over the world scene.  While our fall from "power" won't be nearly as dramatic as the UK's we will probably cease to be the dominant or sole superpower sometime within the next 100 years.  China and India are on the rise so we will probably see a new era of world affairs with power concentrated and/or shifted to southeast Asia.  The US will certainly remain a major player but we won't be able to just demand that people give us what we want.  There will be other major powers to check us.

[Person Man]

So, we could go to a Zarkarian world, where the US doesn't start to splinter or weaken, but the world simply becomes flatter because everyone else becomes more like us.

[JSojourner]

You forgot "The End Is Here.  Repent!" option.

[Frodo]

As a superpower?  Perhaps until the middle of this century.

As a republic? We have a long ways to go, barring a combination of catastrophic natural disasters (Yellowstone Caldera eruption + asteroids hitting Earth + devastating plagues) and another world war. 

America has plenty of life left in it.  We can last as long as the Roman Empire did, if not longer. 

[Dan the Roman]

Republic is funny word. While I am skeptical of Sam Spade's economic collaspe, US turning into a dictatorship thing, mainly because I don't think an openly totalitarian or authoritarian system would work here, I have a hunch that the next century will not be good for anyone, whether it be China, Europe, or the US.

I think resource shortage, falling birthrates, and ethnic strife will hit everyone. Of these three, I actually think the US is best able to weather them. China has a demographic disaster, while Europe is less able to absorb the immigrants it is bringing in as the solution to its own. The US will suffer, but the fact is that is also isolated from where the giant humanitarian disasters are likely to be(Africa, Sub-Continent).

Weather is a mutable word. As the world heads for disaster in the 2020s, I fully expect the US to turn isolationist and xenophobic, probably with a soft-authoritarian de facto one party state. More Children of Men than V for Vendetta.

Oddly I actually came up with a time-line about this in my head that I never posted.

[Zarn]

As a superpower?  Perhaps until the middle of this century.

As a republic? We have a long ways to go, barring a combination of catastrophic natural disasters (Yellowstone Caldera eruption + asteroids hitting Earth + devastating plagues) and another world war. 

America has plenty of life left in it.  We can last as long as the Roman Empire did, if not longer. 

Wouldn't the Roman Republic be a better comparison?

[Person Man]

Republic is funny word. While I am skeptical of Sam Spade's economic collaspe, US turning into a dictatorship thing, mainly because I don't think an openly totalitarian or authoritarian system would work here, I have a hunch that the next century will not be good for anyone, whether it be China, Europe, or the US.

I think resource shortage, falling birthrates, and ethnic strife will hit everyone. Of these three, I actually think the US is best able to weather them. China has a demographic disaster, while Europe is less able to absorb the immigrants it is bringing in as the solution to its own. The US will suffer, but the fact is that is also isolated from where the giant humanitarian disasters are likely to be(Africa, Sub-Continent).

Weather is a mutable word. As the world heads for disaster in the 2020s, I fully expect the US to turn isolationist and xenophobic, probably with a soft-authoritarian de facto one party state. More Children of Men than V for Vendetta.

Oddly I actually came up with a time-line about this in my head that I never posted.

So. Will the 21st century be like the 20th century, the 5th century or the 14th century?

[Dan the Roman]

Republic is funny word. While I am skeptical of Sam Spade's economic collaspe, US turning into a dictatorship thing, mainly because I don't think an openly totalitarian or authoritarian system would work here, I have a hunch that the next century will not be good for anyone, whether it be China, Europe, or the US.

I think resource shortage, falling birthrates, and ethnic strife will hit everyone. Of these three, I actually think the US is best able to weather them. China has a demographic disaster, while Europe is less able to absorb the immigrants it is bringing in as the solution to its own. The US will suffer, but the fact is that is also isolated from where the giant humanitarian disasters are likely to be(Africa, Sub-Continent).

Weather is a mutable word. As the world heads for disaster in the 2020s, I fully expect the US to turn isolationist and xenophobic, probably with a soft-authoritarian de facto one party state. More Children of Men than V for Vendetta.

Oddly I actually came up with a time-line about this in my head that I never posted.

So. Will the 21st century be like the 20th century, the 5th century or the 14th century?

I think a bit like the 5th century. A lot of modern civilization is only possible because of cheap energy. All this talk of alternative energy, new drilling, etc. ignores a key fact, which is that we are on a long-term path of inflation. All alternative fuel types, whether electric or ethanol are still subject to this at the end of the day. How people adapt to that is going to be interesting.

Basically I see in Europe the anti-immigrant euro-skeptic right taking power, either through people like Wilders(not like Haider or Le Pen, they are not credible) or by co-option of the traditional right. This will lead to a cycle of increased polarization, efforts by an EU bureaucracy to crack down that feed anti-EU sentiment. i expect the EU to collapse by the 2030s.

The reason for this is simple. Freedom of trade, freedom of movement are only beneficial if the whole pie is growing. That largely stopped in the West a while ago, and the illusion of it has been kept up by currency inflation. When this myth falls, and it becomes clear that there is a shrinking finite pie, then the cries of the people at Goldman Sachs for efficiency and a flat world will be replaced by demands we keep people employed at our own car companies even if they are inefficient.

Despite the present fight over immigration, I expect the US to mostly avoid that problem, but the rise in gas prices will lead to a lot of political problems and a move towards isolationism. Self-sufficiency.

The really brutal thing will be China trying to grasp resources like oil that it needs cheap, but the sources of which will begin to dry up. Watch what China does in Central Asia. I fully expect them to be the target of Islamic extremism not the West as the US recedes into isolationism.

Ah this sounds science fictiony. Probably better on the other thread.

[Person Man]

Republic is funny word. While I am skeptical of Sam Spade's economic collaspe, US turning into a dictatorship thing, mainly because I don't think an openly totalitarian or authoritarian system would work here, I have a hunch that the next century will not be good for anyone, whether it be China, Europe, or the US.

I think resource shortage, falling birthrates, and ethnic strife will hit everyone. Of these three, I actually think the US is best able to weather them. China has a demographic disaster, while Europe is less able to absorb the immigrants it is bringing in as the solution to its own. The US will suffer, but the fact is that is also isolated from where the giant humanitarian disasters are likely to be(Africa, Sub-Continent).

Weather is a mutable word. As the world heads for disaster in the 2020s, I fully expect the US to turn isolationist and xenophobic, probably with a soft-authoritarian de facto one party state. More Children of Men than V for Vendetta.

Oddly I actually came up with a time-line about this in my head that I never posted.

So. Will the 21st century be like the 20th century, the 5th century or the 14th century?

I think a bit like the 5th century. A lot of modern civilization is only possible because of cheap energy. All this talk of alternative energy, new drilling, etc. ignores a key fact, which is that we are on a long-term path of inflation. All alternative fuel types, whether electric or ethanol are still subject to this at the end of the day. How people adapt to that is going to be interesting.

Basically I see in Europe the anti-immigrant euro-skeptic right taking power, either through people like Wilders(not like Haider or Le Pen, they are not credible) or by co-option of the traditional right. This will lead to a cycle of increased polarization, efforts by an EU bureaucracy to crack down that feed anti-EU sentiment. i expect the EU to collapse by the 2030s.

The reason for this is simple. Freedom of trade, freedom of movement are only beneficial if the whole pie is growing. That largely stopped in the West a while ago, and the illusion of it has been kept up by currency inflation. When this myth falls, and it becomes clear that there is a shrinking finite pie, then the cries of the people at Goldman Sachs for efficiency and a flat world will be replaced by demands we keep people employed at our own car companies even if they are inefficient.

Despite the present fight over immigration, I expect the US to mostly avoid that problem, but the rise in gas prices will lead to a lot of political problems and a move towards isolationism. Self-sufficiency.

The really brutal thing will be China trying to grasp resources like oil that it needs cheap, but the sources of which will begin to dry up. Watch what China does in Central Asia. I fully expect them to be the target of Islamic extremism not the West as the US recedes into isolationism.

Ah this sounds science fictiony. Probably better on the other thread.

What will this new society in the U.S. look like? Are we heading towards theocracy or socialism and what kind of problems will this cause? The way people are all talking, it appears that almost everybody is just desperate in wanting to be killed. The world that the 21st century looks like is making the unification war and the society in the Brave New World look better and better. It would probably suck ass, but at least I would not have to worry about being killed, or one day starving to death.

[Psychic Octopus]

In My Opinion, The "Rome" option is the most likely. We are dominant in almost everything. The question is, I don't think a "superpower" will replace us. I believe we are the last superpower. Nothing will replace us in that sense. What will replace us, centuries from now, is a supranational one world government modeled after the original EU, which will become the "European Federation" one day. Most of Continental Europe will be members, except for Britain, Ireland, Switzerland, some of the Balkans and some of Scandanavia. I can't see an EU-like structure taking hold here, as some as suggested. I also see an "African Union" (which exists, it just is less sucessful then the EU) comprising of some african states. The Far East, which will be powerful economically, will be like a bunch of "Japan/Germany" type economies. I also think that (rather foolishly, and hopefully) we may see Colonization and terraforming of Mars, possibly Venus, and extrasolar planets.

[Person Man]

In My Opinion, The "Rome" option is the most likely. We are dominant in almost everything. The question is, I don't think a "superpower" will replace us. I believe we are the last superpower. Nothing will replace us in that sense. What will replace us, centuries from now, is a supranational one world government modeled after the original EU, which will become the "European Federation" one day. Most of Continental Europe will be members, except for Britain, Ireland, Switzerland, some of the Balkans and some of Scandanavia. I can't see an EU-like structure taking hold here, as some as suggested. I also see an "African Union" (which exists, it just is less sucessful then the EU) comprising of some african states. The Far East, which will be powerful economically, will be like a bunch of "Japan/Germany" type economies. I also think that (rather foolishly, and hopefully) we may see Colonization and terraforming of Mars, possibly Venus, and extrasolar planets.

Well, the instagation of human exploration and small-scale colonization of the Moon and Mars seems to have the world's attention...nevermind the full colonization of LEO...after that...well, we will have to see. ...but like what Ronald Reagan said in his Watchmen-inspired address to the UN in 1986- There would be no "international relations" or need for them if we were invaded by little green or grey men. We would either become One Nation One World or get our asses kicked, whether that means being made to die out or thousands of years of darkness for us.

[Psychic Octopus]

In My Opinion, The "Rome" option is the most likely. We are dominant in almost everything. The question is, I don't think a "superpower" will replace us. I believe we are the last superpower. Nothing will replace us in that sense. What will replace us, centuries from now, is a supranational one world government modeled after the original EU, which will become the "European Federation" one day. Most of Continental Europe will be members, except for Britain, Ireland, Switzerland, some of the Balkans and some of Scandanavia. I can't see an EU-like structure taking hold here, as some as suggested. I also see an "African Union" (which exists, it just is less sucessful then the EU) comprising of some african states. The Far East, which will be powerful economically, will be like a bunch of "Japan/Germany" type economies. I also think that (rather foolishly, and hopefully) we may see Colonization and terraforming of Mars, possibly Venus, and extrasolar planets.

Well, the instagation of human exploration and small-scale colonization of the Moon and Mars seems to have the world's attention...nevermind the full colonization of LEO...after that...well, we will have to see. ...but like what Ronald Reagan said in his Watchmen-inspired address to the UN in 1986- There would be no "international relations" or need for them if we were invaded by little green or grey men. We would either become One Nation One World or get our asses kicked, whether that means being made to die out or thousands of years of darkness for us.

I'm not so sure spacefaring intelligent life, (If they exist, and are visiting Earth, Which I don't believe) would have a need for war. Perhaps they would be only be observing us.

[Person Man]

Oh. I am pretty sure there are aliens out there. They probably have never visited Earth, but I think that I am being abducted when I get sleep paralysis at night. My Fundamentalist aunt tells me to pray when that happens and I do that anyways. ...but long story short- they are out there and we cannot yet make any assumptions about them.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Option 3, maybe 4

[pbrower2a]

The United States is an empire in scale even with a republican government. Even before the Louisiana Purchase the United States was huge by national standards of the time.

Most of the empires of the past had built-in flaws that people thought virtues.  Those empires couldn't re-define themselves, and although they seemed unchanging, the stasis hid the rot. The United States can redefine itself -- and does so. We don't commit ourselves to obsolete technologies and ideologies.  

[Psychic Octopus]

Oh. I am pretty sure there are aliens out there. They probably have never visited Earth, but I think that I am being abducted when I get sleep paralysis at night. My Fundamentalist aunt tells me to pray when that happens and I do that anyways. ...but long story short- they are out there and we cannot yet make any assumptions about them.

I'm sure there are aliens out there given the incomprehensible size of the universe, but are they intelligent? I'm not so sure. It is possible there is intelligent life out there, but what would they be like, or look like, would they be humanoid, or some sort of spacefaring insectoid guided by a hive-mind intelligence? Like spacefaring bees? That would be my worst nightmare.

[Person Man]

Oh. I am pretty sure there are aliens out there. They probably have never visited Earth, but I think that I am being abducted when I get sleep paralysis at night. My Fundamentalist aunt tells me to pray when that happens and I do that anyways. ...but long story short- they are out there and we cannot yet make any assumptions about them.

I'm sure there are aliens out there given the incomprehensible size of the universe, but are they intelligent? I'm not so sure. It is possible there is intelligent life out there, but what would they be like, or look like, would they be humanoid, or some sort of spacefaring insectoid guided by a hive-mind intelligence? Like spacefaring bees? That would be my worst nightmare.

Nope. Can't neogotiate something like that. There are most likely intellegent life forms in our galaxy and they are probably at least as physically complicated as we are....but they will not be like anything that is on our Earth....then again, maybe little grey men are real...but how do they biologically compare with Earth Life?

Long story short- anything we can think of is probably real...even in this galaxy.

[Psychic Octopus]

Oh. I am pretty sure there are aliens out there. They probably have never visited Earth, but I think that I am being abducted when I get sleep paralysis at night. My Fundamentalist aunt tells me to pray when that happens and I do that anyways. ...but long story short- they are out there and we cannot yet make any assumptions about them.

I'm sure there are aliens out there given the incomprehensible size of the universe, but are they intelligent? I'm not so sure. It is possible there is intelligent life out there, but what would they be like, or look like, would they be humanoid, or some sort of spacefaring insectoid guided by a hive-mind intelligence? Like spacefaring bees? That would be my worst nightmare.

Nope. Can't neogotiate something like that. There are most likely intellegent life forms in our galaxy and they are probably at least as physically complicated as we are....but they will not be like anything that is on our Earth....then again, maybe little grey men are real...but how do they biologically compare with Earth Life?

Long story short- anything we can think of is probably real...even in this galaxy.

Huh. Strange to think of, but what if there is some Alien-like United Nations out there, and we don't even know it. Maybe were in an life-isolated corner of the galaxy, like an Australia floating in space.

[Mechaman]

The inevitable truth: We're all going to die. Get used to it bitches. Nothing lasts forever. Just pray to whatever gods or spirits you believe in that you go before this country does, because it's going to be one hell of an implosion.

[Free Palestine]

If we continue down the path of big government, we'll go the way of the Roman Empire and the USSR.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Option 4 : We'll be around for a few centuries, I just think our country will eventually get tired of its self after that. Think Rome. That's exactly what I've ever thought.

[Sam Spade]

Republic is funny word. While I am skeptical of Sam Spade's economic collaspe, US turning into a dictatorship thing, mainly because I don't think an openly totalitarian or authoritarian system would work here, I have a hunch that the next century will not be good for anyone, whether it be China, Europe, or the US.

Um, be careful in assuming that "this is what I think will happen".  I often have a number of scenarios in mind as to what will occur and because of the general unpredictability of human affairs, I will hedge based on what I think are reasonable possibilities.  I do try to state them often enough so that people are aware of what I'm thinking, but as with most things in life, most folks will attach to one or two ideas and forget the rest.

So, I think it is fair to assume that most people have attached onto the economic collapse scenario, because it is, well, the most interesting.  Even if that were to occur, I'm pretty certain that I've stated it would be more of a soft authoritarianism (most likely led by the military), rather than a hard one, precisely for the reasons you note.

As such, here's what I think:  The most likely answer, economics-wise, is some type of debt-deflation which lasts roughly 6-7 years from its start date (October 2007), as have most historical debt-deflations (see 1837, 1873, 1929 (not US, btw)).  That is highly unlikely to result in government overthrows or authoritarianism in the US, because as the biggest debtor nation, we would be in the best position.  For China and any other emerging markets, their scenarios are much worse, so I can't throw out such a result there.

However, I have a number of problems with this scenario, for example: 1) We no longer live in a hard-money currency world which makes it much easier to devalue your currency (bad for US); 2) Most countries in the world are borrowing (or in some cases like China, simply printing) money in attempting to reinflate the bubble - the actual effects of this strategy are unknown, though the attempts in the US in the 1930s and Japan in the 1990s *at a local level* suggests that it just prolongs the "pain", *at a worldwide level*, the result may be the same or quite different; 3) As you mention, there are a whole host of demographic, financial and other issues that could potentially blow up now and they grow by the day (or at least have since October 2007 or so).

Which actually gets me to the rest of your post.  If history is any guide, the problems you raise will either blow up very soon in a monumental way (because of the catalyst event in October 2007 - leading to my "economic collapse" scenario, it would probably be some sort of societal collapse too) or they will not blow up at all (in other words, it would be another sequence in long-term growth - this would occur, btw, in the debt-deflation scenario I outlined above). 

In other words, we face another "Malthusian problem".  Do all the parabolic growth charts I've seen popping up recently (not just recently of course, some of them go back hundreds of years) keep going (perhaps for my lifetime and beyond) or do they fail now?  You see, Malthus, for all the maligning comments made about him, is always right - parabolas always collapse.  The trouble is figuring out where and when.  And you can be dead for hundreds of years before they do.

I may post something on this later - it's an interesting intellectual topic beyond the economics angle.

[Person Man]

Well, what would we do if it does come to your Malthusian problem? I sort of agree with you on the New Deal but agree with it on a sociological level, not an economic level. The basic goal of "prolonging the pain" is to simply spread it over time. I mean, the market WILL correct itself in the end, but at what cost?

[Sam Spade]

Well, what would we do if it does come to your Malthusian problem?

There's nothing you can do about it.  Either growth or innovation allow such expansion to continue or it curls over.  In other words, as like to put it, you either get "destruction" or "implosion", the former being much more common in human history than the latter.  "Moderating the growth" is not a viable option with these sorts of things.

Let me give one major caveat to that which continues on the "destruction" theme.  In any exponential ascent, you do need corrective periods every so often to continue upwards and we are well overdue for one anyways.  If a major correction is allowed to occur (and I don't know how large a correction would be needed), then the ascent is much more likely to continue.  If that's the type of "moderation" being mentioned, it can be done.  But it is not easy or painless.

Which is one of the reasons why, ironically, I'm a bit concerned that if the government is able to hold up and attempt to reflate the bubble for any length of time (i.e. more than, at minimum, the end of this year, 2009).  It actually places more weight on the "economic collapse" scenario because it makes it much more likely that the last 25 years or so (maybe since 1949 even) has been a final "blowoff" of some of the really large-scale parabolas.  Government is the classic "last engine" of bubble formations - go read Hyman Minsky on that front.

Which reminds me, I can always list the worst types of "economic collapse" scenarios to watch out for if you want to, but since I already get made fun of enough for scaremongering, I'll pass unless asked.

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Don't know whether you're talking about the original New Deal or what the government is presently doing.