Scattered party politics

[big bad fab]

Well, there is a long history of divided political parties landscapes:
Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Italy.

But, what is fascinating for some years is the rise of more middle-sized parties, able to ruin the old 2-party or 2-and-a-half party or 2 big-coalition systems or, at least, resulting in a bigger mess with the absence of clear majorities :

Germany, with the Greens and, next, Die Linke
Austria, with 2 parties on the far-right and the rise of the Greens
France, with the FN, then the Greens, now the far-left and an "autonomous" MoDem
Spain, with no big party any longer able to gather an absolute majority
Portugal
Greece
Ireland, for some years now
Italy, back to the intricated past, after some years of apparently simpler landscape
New Zealand
Canada, sort of
UK, where the electoral system is the only reason why the party system hasn't exploded.
USA, for which we may say the same...

The Central and Eastern European countries are making some small headway on the path to clearer and more stable party landscape. It's still unstable, with many parties and many new parties that live for just one or two elections (Bulgaria, Baltic states, Slovakia) or artificial stability due to ethnic voting (Macedonia, Bosnia) or deeply divided electorate (Serbia, Montenegro, Albania).
Indeed, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and, now maybe, Poland, Croatia and Romania, seem to have clearer choices. But, still, in Czech Republic or Poland or Romania, it remains a pretty divided landscape.

So, are European and European-like democracies bound to have scattered political landscapes, troubled coalitions and artificial stability in majority electoral systems (UK, France) ?

Or is it just transitional, mainly because of the crisis of the left and centre-left ?

Indeed, the fragmentation seems to result, in most cases, from the rise of Greens and far-left parties (Germany, Portugal, Greece, Ireland,...)
Even in France, the FN was first a popular party, based on the ruins of PCF and, only after, on the inability of the "clean" right to understand popular concerns. And even in France, MoDem's electorate is now more a centre-left one.
In the UK, the Liberals have gathered more votes since they tilted towards the left.
And in Italy, the problem is now mainly on the left (even though the Berlusconi "thing" may divide itself afterSilvio's death -political or real death....).
The far-right in Austria may be one exception, as it was first a very "traditional" conservative vote.

[Јas]

Indeed, the fragmentation seems to result, in most cases, from the rise of Greens and far-left parties (Germany, Portugal, Greece, Ireland,...)

Speaking only on Ireland, 'party fragmentation' is neither due to the rise of the Greens of the rise of the 'far-left'. Arguably, this 'fragmentation' has been the norm since the foundation of the State and is mostly due to the electoral system.

The 'fragmentation' dissipated during the 60s and re-emerged in the mid-80s, due as much to the rise of the Progressive Democrats (known neither for their environmentalist nor socialist credentials) as anything else - certainly they were the most successful.

If anything, we may now be heading back towards an era of fewer rather than more parties. The PDs are being wound-up; the Greens were wiped out in the Local Elections and would face the same fate in any near-term election. Sinn Féin are hanging-on, but are struggling; they seem to have hit something of a glass ceiling here at the moment. The far-left have the potential to make a breakthrough and gain a few seats but it's too early to tell whether more than 1 or 2 seats is a realistic possibility.

[afleitch]

Scotland may as it is too early to say, be developing a '2 and 2 half' party system; not too dissimilar to Germany where power alternated between Labour and the SNP with the Lib Dems and the Tories shoring up these administrations formally or informally.