What do the President need to do to seal the deal in Missouri?

[JSojourner]

He almost pulled off a trifect of improbable electoral proportions, with Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri.  Unless the economy is booming and there have been no major scandals, I expect Indiana to revert to its old ways and North Carolina to remain Democratic. (Of course, if there is scandal or a second recession, NC is probably lost.)

But what of Missouri?  Is it a matter of jobs, jobs and more jobs?  I almost think Arizona is an easier reach for Obama without McCain in the race now. 

What does he need to "show them" to win in the Show Me state?

[Reaganfan]

To sound like a liberal, your grammar in the topic sentence should read "What DOES the President need to do..." j/p JS still one of my fav posters

I think that 2012 will either be a narrow Obama re-election (Ala Bush 2004) or a blowout for the GOP candidate. No middle ground or repeats.

[JSojourner]

To sound like a liberal, your grammar in the topic sentence should read "What DOES the President need to do..." j/p JS still one of my fav posters

I think that 2012 will either be a narrow Obama re-election (Ala Bush 2004) or a blowout for the GOP candidate. No middle ground or repeats.

OMG Mike.  I can't believe I did that. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama will have problems winning Missouri if the economy has recovered and we are seeing strong, positive growth.

He just did not appeal to the rural voters like a Hillary Clinton did, and that hurt him in Missouri. I think Indiana will return to the GOP in 2012, but Missouri could flip. North Carolina is a tossup, but it may be leaning Democrat. That said, the newly elected Democratic governor is very unpopular right now. I don't know if that will hurt Obama's chances.

[pbrower2a]

Ride the Age Wave -- the replacement of older and more GOP-leaning voters by younger, more Democratic-leaning voters through attrition of the former through natural attrition (senescence and death) will be enough to flip Missouri for Obama (the same can be said of Montana but not Georgia or either of the Dakotas).  Should Obama win Arizona it will be for other reasons.

Voters under 30 went 59-39 for Obama in Missouri, the closest state that he lost. Make that age group 18-34 in 2012 and Obama picks up more than enough voters in Missouri.

Things are no better for the GOP among young voters in Indiana or North Carolina, either.

[DariusNJ]

He only lost by a couple of thousand votes. I'm sure if the economy improves and Obama gets around 53-54% of the popular vote, he'll win Missouri.

[Mr.Phips]

To sound like a liberal, your grammar in the topic sentence should read "What DOES the President need to do..." j/p JS still one of my fav posters

I think that 2012 will either be a narrow Obama re-election (Ala Bush 2004) or a blowout for the GOP candidate. No middle ground or repeats.

When Presidents get reelected, they almost always do better than they did in their initial election.  It will either be an Obama landslide or an Obama loss. 

[You kip if you want to...]

To sound like a liberal, your grammar in the topic sentence should read "What DOES the President need to do..." j/p JS still one of my fav posters

I think that 2012 will either be a narrow Obama re-election (Ala Bush 2004) or a blowout for the GOP candidate. No middle ground or repeats.

When Presidents get reelected, they almost always do better than they did in their initial election.  It will either be an Obama landslide or an Obama loss. 

Or he could pull a Clinton, not try as hard as he could with his re-election campaign, and win by a similar margin.

[Holmes]

It's always a St. Lois metro + Kansas City metro vs. rural Missouri turnout battle. So, if he does good and the Republican candidate is bad, the rural voters might not turn out, or vice versa.

[Lief 🗽]

If he wins re-election by more than he did in 2008 (which, historically, is more likely than winning by a smaller margin) then he should take Missouri. I suspect (and also hope a little) that after four years the rural white voters who weren't familiar with Obama and swung against him will have realized that he isn't a Muslim or a terrorist or a socialist (or, if a socialist, at least one that's made their lives better), and thus swing in his favor some.

[Rob]

I suspect (and also hope a little) that after four years the rural white voters who weren't familiar with Obama and swung against him will have realized that he isn't a Muslim or a terrorist or a socialist (or, if a socialist, at least one that's made their lives better), and thus swing in his favor some.

I was actually surprised at how "well" Obama did in the Missouri Ozarks. Most of the region swung toward him, a stark contrast to similar areas in Appalachia.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I suspect (and also hope a little) that after four years the rural white voters who weren't familiar with Obama and swung against him will have realized that he isn't a Muslim or a terrorist or a socialist (or, if a socialist, at least one that's made their lives better), and thus swing in his favor some.

I was actually surprised at how "well" Obama did in the Missouri Ozarks. Most of the region swung toward him, a stark contrast to similar areas in Appalachia.

Maybe because he actually contested the state unlike West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee.

[marvelrobbins]

Missouri Is the Mccain state most likely to flip.Plus Mccain just barely won Missouri.The wisedom was here It would be a easy win for Mccain yet he just barely won the state.


Missouri Is the Mccain state that Obama has the best approval In.The way things are going If he campagins In Missouri he can take the state.

For those thinking Hillary would have been stronger remember Obama beat her In the primary.
And If people think the younger voters that came out for Obama would have come out for her they are crazy.She had her own problems with some Democrats too.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Missouri Is the Mccain state most likely to flip.Plus Mccain just barely won Missouri.The wisedom was here It would be a easy win for Mccain yet he just barely won the state.


Missouri Is the Mccain state that Obama has the best approval In.The way things are going If he campagins In Missouri he can take the state.

For those thinking Hillary would have been stronger remember Obama beat her In the primary.
And If people think the younger voters that came out for Obama would have come out for her they are crazy.She had her own problems with some Democrats too.

Wrong. Disproportionate power to black voters in Democratic primaries and caucuses that clearly don't reflect a population's will did Hillary in. She was much stronger as a candidate and would've won a landslide. I would've voted Hillary over McCain without thinking twice. Obama, on the other hand, is bad enough to make me vote for someone like Huckabee.

[Ebowed]

Disproportionate power to black voters in Democratic primaries and caucuses that clearly don't reflect a population's will did Hillary in. She was much stronger as a candidate and would've won a landslide.

Your predictions aside, how is the Democratic nomination process rigged in a way that gives disproportionate power to black voters?

[Alexander Hamilton]

Disproportionate power to black voters in Democratic primaries and caucuses that clearly don't reflect a population's will did Hillary in. She was much stronger as a candidate and would've won a landslide.

Your predictions aside, how is the Democratic nomination process rigged in a way that gives disproportionate power to black voters?

Because delegates are appointed based on how often a particular place votes for the Democratic candidate. Obviously blacks are the most loyal Democrat partisans.

[pogo stick]

Indiana : Lean R
North Carolina : Likely D
Missouri : Lean R
Arizona : Likely R
Montana : Likely D
North Dakota : Tilt R

[Alexander Hamilton]

Indiana : Lean R
North Carolina : Likely D
Missouri : Lean R
Arizona : Likely R
Montana : Likely D
North Dakota : Tilt R

WTF??

Let me guess...

WV- Safe D
Texas- Lean D
Vermont- Likely R
PA- Lean D
MA- Toss-up
JC- Lean Gay

Let's just pull ratings out our asses from now on.

[pogo stick]

actually :


Texas : Lean R

[Alexander Hamilton]

actually :


Texas : Lean R

ohmygod

[Zarn]

Michigan: Strong Libertarian
New Hampshire: Tilt Nazis
Candy Land: Lean R

[Alexander Hamilton]

Michigan: Strong Libertarian
New Hampshire: Tilt Nazis
Candy Land: Lean R

LOL at Richius being the only New Hampshire resident in 2012.

[JSojourner]

Indiana : Lean R
North Carolina : Likely D
Missouri : Lean R
Arizona : Likely R
Montana : Likely D
North Dakota : Tilt R

This thread is about Missouri.  And most of your projections are, as usual, absurd. Go away.

[Rowan]

It'll be tough for him to win MO. After all, it was 8 points more Republican than the national average.

[Tender Branson]

It'll be tough for him to win MO. After all, it was 8 points more Republican than the national average.

I agree. MO has been moving away from the Democrat since at least 1988 or so.

In 2012, Obama probably needs to win by an even bigger margin nationally than last year to carry MO, barring a reversal of this 20 year old trend.