Date of Next UK General Election

[Phony Moderate]

I think it will be in April 2010.

[You kip if you want to...]

June. Brown's gonna let this go as late as he possibly can. Plus, who know, with all this talk of recovery on the way, a later election may be able to save a handful of seats which would otherwise go blue or gold.

[Јas]

April or May. Presumably he'd prefer to not have to pass another budget.

[Peter]

From my own perspective I would prefer 3 June 2010 because it falls in school holidays and so I can stay up all night (and most of the next morning if its close) to watch it. Failing that, the beginning of April is good because that is school holidays as well. Worst time is May, which realistically, is when it will probably fall.

[The Oncoming Storm]

It will be May 6th 2010. There are local elections in England on that day and GE's are usually timed to coincide with local polls, historically Callaghan and Major went on the equivalent dates in 1979 and 1997, both of them were PM's at the end of a 5 year parliament and who led unpopular governments.

Brown can go on until June but the consensus on UK political sites is that if he tries on go on past May 6th, the electorate will be very unhappy and will give Labour an almighty hiding in those polls. This will destroy much of what remains of Labour's activist base across most of England and they may not be able to put up a credible election campaign in many areas.

If the locals coincide with the GE then it will be interesting to see how they pan out. A fact lost from Blair's triumph in 1997 was that the Tories actually did very well in the county council elections that year, regaining control of authorities such as Essex and Surrey that they had lost in 1993, which was held in the aftermath of Black Wednesday and was the first chance the electorate had to express it's displeasure with Major. Similarly it will be interesting to see if Labour can start to claw back some of the strength it's lost in local government over the last few years.

[Harry Hayfield]

The idea that locals and generals are held on the same day is only very new.

1979: Locals held on General
1983 - 1992: Locals held before / after General
1997 - 2010: Locals held on General

[AMOLAK MANN]

Yes and the dates for the 1945 to 1974 elections are interesting in themselves including a July date in 1945(and some constituencies voting on different days)

[Psychic Octopus]

Never. The UK will become a fascist state by then. *chuckes*

Next June.

[The Oncoming Storm]

It's also rare for a parliament to run into it's fifth year, this is the 6th time since the war. Certainly Callaghan was forced to go on May 3rd after losing the confidence vote when he could, in theory have hung on until November 1979. Major in 1992 was level pegging with Labour in the polls and he was able to choose his moment, in contrast to 1997 when all he could do was wait until the last possible moment and hope that something came up.

In contrast Thatcher in 1983 and 1987 was able to use the local elections as a barometer of the public mood so she could go to the country a month later. Had those results been disappointing then she had the option of waiting for another year.

[AMOLAK MANN]

I think it was Professor Anthony King who pointed out that since the war whoever has been ahead in the polls 4 months before polling day has won(posibly only 1950 and 1992 are the exceptions)

[Harry Hayfield]

Projected National Share (Locals) vs General
National Projected Share
1983 (before general): Con 39% Lab 36% All 20%
1987 (before general): Con 38% Lab 32% All 27%
1992 (after general): Con 46% Lab 30% Lib Dem 20%
1997 (on general): Con 34% Lab 36% Lib Dem 25%
2001 (on general): Con 39% Lab 31% Lib Dem 25%
2005 (on general): Con 40% Lab 25% Lib Dem 28%

General Election Vote Share
1983: Con 44% Lab 28% All 26%
1987: Con 43% Lab 32% All 23%
1992: Con 43% Lab 35% Lib Dem 18%
1997: Con 32% Lab 44% Lib Dem 17%
2001: Con 33% Lab 42% Lib Dem 19%
2005: Con 33% Lab 36% Lib Dem 23%

[Хahar 🤔]

The Opposition polls far better in the Locals than in the General, but we all knew that.

[doktorb]

Gordon Brown is the only person I can think of who gives me genuine fear of having the General Election postponed for "reasons of national security"or other such bogus flim-flam.

We SHOULD have the election by June 2010. The fact is, under Brown, we may never have an election at all.