Idaho ignored?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

In recent years, Idaho has become much more high-tech and cosmopolitan.  Boise is the Silicon Valley of the Rockies, with both HP and Micron in town.  Their universities have also been growing.

And we have only one poll (that I know of) out of the state for 2004.

Now, I'm not saying that Kerry has any chance there, but are the days of this state being a GOP lock over?  Could we see Kerry get within 10 points on 11/2?  Could we see a Democrat win the state in the near future?

[AuH2O]

No.


No.

[Sam Spade]

Kerry will be lucky to get within 30 of Bush.  He'll probably be on the opposite side of that too.

[J. J.]

Not this year, but I'll say maybe.  The ARG poll from 9/17/04 showed a 29 point lead for Bush.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

10 points???  Al Gore lost by 40!  Idaho is the most hopeless state in American for Democrats.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No.


No.

I think the Idaho result will surprise a lot of people.  55-40, with Bandarik getting 3 and Nader getting 2, would not surprise me, although it would be a shocker to most.

[agcatter]

No way Kerry gets 40% in Idaho.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

10 points???  Al Gore lost by 40!  Idaho is the most hopeless state in American for Democrats.

No, Utah is.

Demographics will pull Idaho left.  It will follow in the footsteps of Nevada and Arizona.  Someday it will become a battleground.  Maybe as early as 2012.

[AuH2O]

Sure.

Add a high tech corporate office and BOOM a million Democrats are programmed and then released onto the population.

Except... in all probability, the new workers are Republicans already, and there aren't many. And young people from conservative places are still conservative.

I would bet any amount on your proposition-- an only 15 point Bush win. 5 grand? 10 grand?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Nader is not on the ballot in Idaho, BTW.

[Shira]

10 points???  Al Gore lost by 40!  Idaho is the most hopeless state in American for Democrats.

WY and UT are worse.
If the high tech story is substential, then there will be a slow move to the DEMs which won't help too much.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

10 points???  Al Gore lost by 40!  Idaho is the most hopeless state in American for Democrats.

No, Utah is.

Demographics will pull Idaho left.  It will follow in the footsteps of Nevada and Arizona.  Someday it will become a battleground.  Maybe as early as 2012.

Maybe at the presidential level...but at least Utah has a Dem congressman, a Dem mayor of Salt Lake City, and a competitive candidate for Governor this year.

[AuH2O]

10 points???  Al Gore lost by 40!  Idaho is the most hopeless state in American for Democrats.

No, Utah is.

Demographics will pull Idaho left.  It will follow in the footsteps of Nevada and Arizona.  Someday it will become a battleground.  Maybe as early as 2012.

Idaho is not going to be a battleground this year. Or in 2012. Or so long as the parties remain ANYTHING like they are today. Never.

[Shira]

Sure.

Add a high tech corporate office and BOOM a million Democrats are programmed and then released onto the population.

Except... in all probability, the new workers are Republicans already, and there aren't many. And young people from conservative places are still conservative.

I would bet any amount on your proposition-- an only 15 point Bush win. 5 grand? 10 grand?

Kerry has a wide margin among college graduates.

[AuH2O]

Sure.

Add a high tech corporate office and BOOM a million Democrats are programmed and then released onto the population.

Except... in all probability, the new workers are Republicans already, and there aren't many. And young people from conservative places are still conservative.

I would bet any amount on your proposition-- an only 15 point Bush win. 5 grand? 10 grand?

Kerry has a wide margin among college graduates.

Wrong.

Bush won college grads in 2000 and will again.

Better luck next time.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Nader is not on the ballot in Idaho, BTW.

Maybe something like 57-40-3, then.

I'm allowed one outrageous prediction.  If I'm wrong, no one cares.  If I'm right, I look like a genius on 11/3 .

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Sure.

Add a high tech corporate office and BOOM a million Democrats are programmed and then released onto the population.

Except... in all probability, the new workers are Republicans already, and there aren't many. And young people from conservative places are still conservative.

I would bet any amount on your proposition-- an only 15 point Bush win. 5 grand? 10 grand?

Kerry has a wide margin among college graduates.

Wrong.

Bush won college grads in 2000 and will again.

Better luck next time.

I don't think this is true....Bush won college grads who don't have graduate degree, while Gore won those with post-grad degrees by a wide margin.   I believe Gore edged Bush out narrowly when the two groups are combined.

[Dave from Michigan]

will Kerry win Blaine county Idaho, Gore did 47.2% to 44.4%

[AuH2O]

Sure.

Add a high tech corporate office and BOOM a million Democrats are programmed and then released onto the population.

Except... in all probability, the new workers are Republicans already, and there aren't many. And young people from conservative places are still conservative.

I would bet any amount on your proposition-- an only 15 point Bush win. 5 grand? 10 grand?

Kerry has a wide margin among college graduates.

Wrong.

Bush won college grads in 2000 and will again.

Better luck next time.

I don't think this is true....Bush won college grads who don't have graduate degree, while Gore won those with post-grad degrees by a wide margin.   I believe Gore edged Bush out narrowly when the two groups are combined.

I think Bush won the combined group slightly.

But, that's not the point. A lot of post-grads are professors, and they are leftist of course because of all the various reasons people talk about.

Take out college profs, and college grads are clearly Republican.

In other words, getting a more educated work force makes you MORE REPUBLICAN not less. I guess building a college would make you more Democratic.

[Donovan]

Nope,

Idaho is the most Republican State in the Union.

It is becoming more moderate in 8 of the 9 nothern counties and in one south, ADA county. ADA is where Boise is located.

Boise has a Democratic Mayor.

The reason that Idaho in part is so Republican is because of the environmential issues and because people hate taxes and government regulation. They hate it.

Our Representatives are more Libertarians then they are Republican. But Republican is how they vote.

The First Congressional District (Western half of state) is about 45% Democrat 55% Republican. The Second Congression District is about 70% Republican 30% Democrat. So winning the state as a whole will not happen for decades, unless the Republican Party Splits into two parties, Libertarian Republican and Conservative Republican.

The First Congressional District can turn Democrat in about 4-8 years if the Hispanic Population continues to grow and votes. Getting them to vote is the hard part.

The two largest Colleges in the State are not much help. University of Idaho, is mostly conservative students. It is about 95% White, and about 54% Male. There are few liberal organizations on campus. The largest college, Boise State University, is not very well organized, and consists of a large percent of local Boise Residents and older students.
It does though, on occassion, have protests on the steps of the capitol in protest of the Republican controlled legislature.

The state will most likely stay Republican. But the 1st Congressional District might turn out a Democrat in the future is the party gets its act together.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Sure.

Add a high tech corporate office and BOOM a million Democrats are programmed and then released onto the population.

Except... in all probability, the new workers are Republicans already, and there aren't many. And young people from conservative places are still conservative.

I would bet any amount on your proposition-- an only 15 point Bush win. 5 grand? 10 grand?

Kerry has a wide margin among college graduates.

Wrong.

Bush won college grads in 2000 and will again.

Better luck next time.

I don't think this is true....Bush won college grads who don't have graduate degree, while Gore won those with post-grad degrees by a wide margin.   I believe Gore edged Bush out narrowly when the two groups are combined.

I think Bush won the combined group slightly.

But, that's not the point. A lot of post-grads are professors, and they are leftist of course because of all the various reasons people talk about.

Take out college profs, and college grads are clearly Republican.

In other words, getting a more educated work force makes you MORE REPUBLICAN not less. I guess building a college would make you more Democratic.

But why would you remove college professors?  I could just as easily say that if you remove corporate executives, college grads are clearly Democratic.  Teachers are part of the work force too.

[AuH2O]

You didn't read my post very well.

My point was: "high-tech" jobs are not held by Democrats.

Getting Micron does not add Democrats.

That is an issue on this thread.

People with normal degrees and real jobs lean GOP.

[Donovan]

will Kerry win Blaine county Idaho, Gore did 47.2% to 44.4%

Yes, Kerry will win Blaine in the south, maybe Latah, and perhaps as many as 4 or 5 others in the north. But Kerry is unlikly to break 40% percent.

I would guess, 33-38% of the vote.

[ATFFL]

Sure.

Add a high tech corporate office and BOOM a million Democrats are programmed and then released onto the population.

Except... in all probability, the new workers are Republicans already, and there aren't many. And young people from conservative places are still conservative.

I would bet any amount on your proposition-- an only 15 point Bush win. 5 grand? 10 grand?

Kerry has a wide margin among college graduates.

Wrong.

Bush won college grads in 2000 and will again.

Better luck next time.

I don't think this is true....Bush won college grads who don't have graduate degree, while Gore won those with post-grad degrees by a wide margin.   I believe Gore edged Bush out narrowly when the two groups are combined.

I think Bush won the combined group slightly.

But, that's not the point. A lot of post-grads are professors, and they are leftist of course because of all the various reasons people talk about.

Take out college profs, and college grads are clearly Republican.

In other words, getting a more educated work force makes you MORE REPUBLICAN not less. I guess building a college would make you more Democratic.

But why would you remove college professors?  I could just as easily say that if you remove corporate executives, college grads are clearly Democratic.  Teachers are part of the work force too.

Please do not compare my profession to what college professors do.

[Donovan]

You didn't read my post very well.

My point was: "high-tech" jobs are not held by Democrats.

Getting Micron does not add Democrats.

That is an issue on this thread.

People with normal degrees and real jobs lean GOP.

Maybe, but the poor working class in Boise, where Micron is located, is moving Democrat. They elected their first Democrat as Mayor in years, and they voted against the incumbant Republican Governor.

It appears your logic is in conflict with the reality of the situation.