Either the NRCC or the AP really, really sucks (or both)

[Meeker]

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Anyone want to count how many of these districts don't meet either of those requirements? I noticed five off the top of my head (HI-01, NY-01, WI-07, OR-01, OR-04) but I'm sure there's more.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

"Lorraine" Sanchez, John Barrow, Leonard Boswell, Debbie Halvorson, Bill Foster, Dennis Moore, Larry Kissell, Paul Hodes, Martin Heinrich, John Hall, David Wu, Pete DeFazio, Joe Sestak, Ron Kind, and Dave Obey all don't fall under either of those definitions. I'm gonna say lazy reporting on the part of AP here.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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Anyone want to count how many of these districts don't meet either of those requirements? I noticed five off the top of my head (HI-01, NY-01, WI-07, OR-01, OR-04) but I'm sure there's more.

Someone really F**ked up here. I think its good to challenge as many seats as possible but if you are going to try for HI-01 and OR-01 they might as well pick every seat that went to McCain, as well as every seat held by the GOP at one point of another since the last redistricting cause they would have to win all of them before those seats would be on the list of takeovers. They would also need to be winning the Asian vote and we all know how likely that is.

[Padfoot]

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Anyone want to count how many of these districts don't meet either of those requirements? I noticed five off the top of my head (HI-01, NY-01, WI-07, OR-01, OR-04) but I'm sure there's more.

I count 15 and there's even more where the Democrat got 54% of the vote and Obama won the district.  This list is just sloppy.

[Rob]

DeFazio? lol!

[Lief 🗽]

Hahaha, I hope this list is real.

[Mr.Phips]

They are not taking out Himes(CT-04) without McKinney, nor Boswell,  Moore, Chandler, Skelton, Pomeroy, Bishop, Boren, Wu, DeFazio, Sandlin, Matheson, Boucher, Kind, Mollahan and Obey who have all won in Republican years(some survived 1994!!!). 

[cinyc]

Taking what some of you think are the most egregious cases first:

HI-01 is an open seat.  Abercrombie is running for governor instead of reelection.  It makes sense to spend money on an open seat IF the Republicans can recruit a good candidate.

For whatever reason, Republicans didn't run a candidate against Wu (OR-01) in 2008.  OR-01 has been a little closer in the not-so-recent past - though Wu has usually broken 60%.  Nevertheless, it's the type of suburban seat that Republicans have to try to win if they have any chance of taking back control of the House.

IL-11 and 14 are very recent flips to the Democrats.  IL-14 was Hastert's seat.  Republicans have a better chance of recapturing them in an off election year when a presidential candidate from Illinois ISN'T on the ballot (probably IL-11 moreso than IL-14).

Boswell (IA-03) is a Blue Dog Democrat who only broke 60% once in 7 elections - and usually does worse during off years.

Barrow (GA-12) ran in very close races in 2004 and 2006, winning by less than 4 points.

NM-01 was an '08 flip.  It was Heather Wilson's district.  Besides, 55.65% is 55%, without the decimal point.  Same story in NC-08 - it was a 2008 pickup that was held by Republican Robin Hayes for 10 years.  And 55.38% is 55% rounded down.

NY-01 and NY-19 are marginal districts.  Obama barely won them.  Bush won both districts in 2004.  Both seats have been held by Republicans this decade.  And both incumbent Democrats faced very weak challengers in 2008.

VA-11 was held by Republican Tom Davis until 2008, and was won by George Bush in 2000 and 2004.

WI-3 and WI-7 were closer on the Presidential level in 2004, when Kerry won with 51% of the vote. Obey is pretty well entrenched in his seat, though.

CA-47 doesn't make much sense at all.   George Bush did win the district in 2000 and 2004.  Sanchez seems to win it by much larger margins, though - breaking 60% in 2002-2008.

DeFazio in OR-4 is pretty well entrenched, too.   My guess is Republicans are targettng it due to Obama's relatively poor showing.

[Rob]

HI-01 is an open seat.  Abercrombie is running for governor instead of reelection.  It makes sense to spend money on an open seat IF the Republicans can recruit a good candidate.

Not in Hawaii, dude, and not with Obama as President.

DeFazio in OR-4 is pretty well entrenched, too.

Yeah, you could say that. Jim Feldkamp was a semi-credible candidate with some cash in 2004 and 2006, and he got smoked both times- even losing Roseburg's Douglas County, a depressed lumber area that hates liberals and environmentalists and is solidly Republican on all levels. (Since 1936, Kennedy and Johnson are the only Democrats to carry the county, and Wyden couldn't even break 50 percent against a joke candidate in 2004). It was Feldkamp's home county, to boot.

Point being, even the rural and small-town conservatives in this district like DeFazio, for his constituent service and his maverick streak. 

My guess is Republicans are targettng it due to Obama's relatively poor showing.

This isn't really a Democratic district in national elections. Kerry only won it by a handful of votes, and it actually voted for Bush by five points in 2000. Dukakis ran better than Obama here, just because Democrats were not yet blamed for the collapse of the logging industry.

All of which is moot.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

HI-01 on that list means the list is epic fail.

[Mr.Phips]

NM-01 was an '08 flip.  It was Heather Wilson's district.  Besides, 55.65% is 55%, without the decimal point.  Same story in NC-08 - it was a 2008 pickup that was held by Republican Robin Hayes for 10 years.  And 55.38% is 55% rounded down.


VA-11 was held by Republican Tom Davis until 2008, and was won by George Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Wilson's district went for Obama by a 60%-39% margin and she only barely held it each time she won.  VA-11 went for Bush by around 500 votes in 2004 when he was winning by three points nationally.  It swung to Obama by a 57%-42% margin and Connelly won by a huge 55%-43% margin. 

 WI-3 and WI-7 were closer on the Presidential level in 2004, when Kerry won with 51% of the vote. Obey is pretty well entrenched in his seat, though.

Again, Kerry WON these districts while Bush was beating him by a decent margin nationally. 

For whatever reason, Republicans didn't run a candidate against Wu (OR-01) in 2008.  OR-01 has been a little closer in the not-so-recent past - though Wu has usually broken 60%.  Nevertheless, it's the type of suburban seat that Republicans have to try to win if they have any chance of taking back control of the House.

This district may have been close a couple of times in the 1990's, but not anymore.  Even John Kerry won here by a 55%-44% margin. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Also, where is the ultra-vulnerable Gabrielle Giffords on this list? She could be beaten by anyone in Arizona, you know.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Considering that Obama's popularity is pointed south and seems unlikely to rebound in the short term, a lot of these "jokes" could turn out being not-so-funny in a year and a half.

It's like taking a time machine back to 1981 and saying that all these southern Republicans are safe cause "REAGAN WINZ" and "TRENDZ" and then lol all the way to the bank about democrats trying to pick up Barry Goldwater Jr.'s district.

[minionofmidas]

I doubt Giffords is the only accidental exclusion, either. Somebody try find all the seats that fulfill the criteria and aren't listed.

[cinyc]

HI-01 is an open seat.  Abercrombie is running for governor instead of reelection.  It makes sense to spend money on an open seat IF the Republicans can recruit a good candidate.

Not in Hawaii, dude, and not with Obama as President.

All bets are off if Governor Lingle decides to run for it.  No, she doesn't live in the district, but she doesn't need to in order to run. 

It's doubtful she will run, though.

[Padfoot]

VA-11 was held by Republican Tom Davis until 2008, and was won by George Bush in 2000 and 2004.

I'd like to see Tom Davis or any candidate like him survive a Republican primary nowadays.  And despite Bush's 2004 victory here, he lost ground in this district while virtually the entire rest of the state swung towards him.  This seat is only getting more Democratic.  Unless Connolly screws something up he shouldn't be in too much trouble.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Considering that Obama's popularity is pointed south and seems unlikely to rebound in the short term, a lot of these "jokes" could turn out being not-so-funny in a year and a half.

It's like taking a time machine back to 1981 and saying that all these southern Republicans are safe cause "REAGAN WINZ" and "TRENDZ" and then lol all the way to the bank about democrats trying to pick up Barry Goldwater Jr.'s district.

As I've said before, there's no point in worrying about HI-01, because if the Republicans win it, then they'll have retaken Congress anyway, so there will be bigger problems to worry about.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Considering that Obama's popularity is pointed south and seems unlikely to rebound in the short term, a lot of these "jokes" could turn out being not-so-funny in a year and a half.

It's like taking a time machine back to 1981 and saying that all these southern Republicans are safe cause "REAGAN WINZ" and "TRENDZ" and then lol all the way to the bank about democrats trying to pick up Barry Goldwater Jr.'s district.

As I've said before, there's no point in worrying about HI-01, because if the Republicans win it, then they'll have retaken Congress anyway, so there will be bigger problems to worry about.

I doubt Republicans will play there, never mind actually winning there.  But August 2009 is a good of a time as any for casting a wide net.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In HI-1 the Republicans are hopeful about their candidate.
Plus, hawaii is very pro-incumbent and with this being an open seat. It is a good chance to try to take this seat. If you wait till there is an incumbent, it would be nearly impossible. Take chances as you get them.

Charles Djou Campaign:
http://www.djou.com/

I do agree that if ever there would be a time to take it that is now.

Considering that Obama's popularity is pointed south and seems unlikely to rebound in the short term, a lot of these "jokes" could turn out being not-so-funny in a year and a half.

It's like taking a time machine back to 1981 and saying that all these southern Republicans are safe cause "REAGAN WINZ" and "TRENDZ" and then lol all the way to the bank about democrats trying to pick up Barry Goldwater Jr.'s district.

As I've said before, there's no point in worrying about HI-01, because if the Republicans win it, then they'll have retaken Congress anyway, so there will be bigger problems to worry about.

I doubt Republicans will play there, never mind actually winning there.  But August 2009 is a good of a time as any for casting a wide net.

For sure, you don't want the Dems to be able to focus on just the 10 or 15 seats that we are "really going after" that will actually be competative.

[Mr.Phips]

HI-01 is the kind of district that Republicans could take if people in the district know their is no hope of Republicans getting anywhere near a majority in the House.  If it looks like there is a chance that Republicans could take the House or get close, Republicans wont have any chance of taking this district. 

[Holmes]

Well, Djou does have the support of the state's Republicans. All 5 of them.

[Badger]

In HI-1 the Republicans are hopeful about their candidate.
Plus, hawaii is very pro-incumbent and with this being an open seat. It is a good chance to try to take this seat. If you wait till there is an incumbent, it would be nearly impossible. Take chances as you get them.

Charles Djou Campaign:
http://www.djou.com/

I do agree that if ever there would be a time to take it that is now.

Considering that Obama's popularity is pointed south and seems unlikely to rebound in the short term, a lot of these "jokes" could turn out being not-so-funny in a year and a half.

It's like taking a time machine back to 1981 and saying that all these southern Republicans are safe cause "REAGAN WINZ" and "TRENDZ" and then lol all the way to the bank about democrats trying to pick up Barry Goldwater Jr.'s district.

As I've said before, there's no point in worrying about HI-01, because if the Republicans win it, then they'll have retaken Congress anyway, so there will be bigger problems to worry about.

I doubt Republicans will play there, never mind actually winning there.  But August 2009 is a good of a time as any for casting a wide net.

For sure, you don't want the Dems to be able to focus on just the 10 or 15 seats that we are "really going after" that will actually be competative.

For me all the naval-gazing and "what if" scenarios should be boiled down to one question:
"What odds would you demand before betting $100 on the candidate?"
Anyone?

For me, it would be at least 9-1 before putting that kind of money down on Djou. Anyone that wants to place a bet at 8-1 odds please contact me and I'll be happy to take your money.

[MasterJedi]

Pour money against Kagen in WI. Don't even try and take out Obey and Kind because it just isn't going to happen.

[Mr.Phips]

Pour money against Kagen in WI. Don't even try and take out Obey and Kind because it just isn't going to happen.

The same thing is quickly happening to Kagen.  The Republicans best chance to take him out before he got intrenched was 2008.

[MasterJedi]

Pour money against Kagen in WI. Don't even try and take out Obey and Kind because it just isn't going to happen.

The same thing is quickly happening to Kagen.  The Republicans best chance to take him out before he got intrenched was 2008.

True but they still actually have a chance to take him out while there is no hope in getting rid of Obey and Kind.