How was Nebraska a toss up?

[JerryBrown2010]

How was Nebraska a toss up with a lot of poll maps during May with Obama vs Mccain?

[Tender Branson]

NE was never a toss-up according to polls. The SurveyUSA poll in February 2008 was the only close one with McCain+3, but that was before the Rev. Wright scandal. After this, Obama's numbers dropped in almost every state.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ne/nebraska_mccain_vs_obama-616.html

By toss-up, do you probably mean North Dakota ?

[Person Man]

Well...Obama was arguably very close in North Dakota and Montana. Nebraska...yeah. I go with that. He was probably pretty popular in non-southern rural areas until he was pinned as being too urban for rural areas, but not too urban for the suburbs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

he was pinned as being too urban for rural areas, but not too urban for the suburbs.

Silly arguments...

[Person Man]

he was pinned as being too urban for rural areas, but not too urban for the suburbs.

Silly arguments...

I guess that's the most watered down argument, I suppose. Perhaps Revered Wright just made Conservative Independents go back to their Republican Caucus.

[hcallega]

he was pinned as being too urban for rural areas, but not too urban for the suburbs.

Silly arguments...

I guess that's the most watered down argument, I suppose. Perhaps Revered Wright just made Conservative Independents go back to their Republican Caucus.

It nullified any potential gains that Obama could have made via conservatives who dissaproved of Bush and weren't impressed with McCain.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It really wasn't.  Only NE-02 was a Toss-Up; NE-01 and NE-03 weren't very close at all, and neither was the statewide total.

[Person Man]

he was pinned as being too urban for rural areas, but not too urban for the suburbs.

Silly arguments...

I guess that's the most watered down argument, I suppose. Perhaps Revered Wright just made Conservative Independents go back to their Republican Caucus.

It nullified any potential gains that Obama could have made via conservatives who dissaproved of Bush and weren't impressed with McCain.

So, it sort of unified the base, more or less.

[Vepres]

he was pinned as being too urban for rural areas, but not too urban for the suburbs.

Silly arguments...

I guess that's the most watered down argument, I suppose. Perhaps Revered Wright just made Conservative Independents go back to their Republican Caucus.

It nullified any potential gains that Obama could have made via conservatives who dissaproved of Bush and weren't impressed with McCain.

So, it sort of unified the base, more or less.

I read somewhere that Palin netted McCain votes. However, I suspect many were in states that would've voted for him anyway. Who knows how many people Palin turned off who didn't even realize it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I read somewhere that Palin netted McCain votes. However, I suspect many were in states that would've voted for him anyway. Who knows how many people Palin turned off who didn't even realize it.

Yeah, precisely. That was the right way to definitely disgust moderates from GOP.

[pbrower2a]

Well...Obama was arguably very close in North Dakota and Montana. Nebraska...yeah. I go with that. He was probably pretty popular in non-southern rural areas until he was pinned as being too urban for rural areas, but not too urban for the suburbs.

That's how Obama could win NE-02 (Greater Omaha), lose NE-01 (eastern Nebraska other than Greater Omaha, which includes Lincoln) about 55-45, and lose NE-03 by about a 70-30 margin. Greater Omaha isn't that much different from Kansas City, Des Moines, or the Quad Cities, all of which went firmly for Obama. Lancaster County (which includes Lincoln) went for Obama, likely because of the large University of Nebraska. But the University of Nebraska isn't quite as large as is the University of Michigan system, and aside from Lincoln, NE-01 is quite rural.
 
I made many predictions suggesting that Obama would win NE-02 because Omaha is what it is, although it would be closer because of the large Air Force presence (SAC) that would make it less liberal than, say, Kansas City. Because eastern Nebraska (NE-02) is indistinguishable from Iowa I figured that it would be much like the more rural parts of Iowa and would be at most 10 points away. Western Nebraska? The last electoral vote that Obama would ever get -- after Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming. 

[Person Man]

Well...Obama was arguably very close in North Dakota and Montana. Nebraska...yeah. I go with that. He was probably pretty popular in non-southern rural areas until he was pinned as being too urban for rural areas, but not too urban for the suburbs.

That's how Obama could win NE-02 (Greater Omaha), lose NE-01 (eastern Nebraska other than Greater Omaha, which includes Lincoln) about 55-45, and lose NE-03 by about a 70-30 margin. Greater Omaha isn't that much different from Kansas City, Des Moines, or the Quad Cities, all of which went firmly for Obama. Lancaster County (which includes Lincoln) went for Obama, likely because of the large University of Nebraska. But the University of Nebraska isn't quite as large as is the University of Michigan system, and aside from Lincoln, NE-01 is quite rural.
 
I made many predictions suggesting that Obama would win NE-02 because Omaha is what it is, although it would be closer because of the large Air Force presence (SAC) that would make it less liberal than, say, Kansas City. Because eastern Nebraska (NE-02) is indistinguishable from Iowa I figured that it would be much like the more rural parts of Iowa and would be at most 10 points away. Western Nebraska? The last electoral vote that Obama would ever get -- after Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming. 

Well, there could be another reason for this. But if this is true, perhaps there needs to be more education to voters that only vote Republican because of their status. The same could be said for minorities that vote Democratic. Perhaps if certain people knew more, they wouldn't be as Republican or Democratic. Then again, military guys remember President Johnson's mistakes and minorities remember President Nixon's southern stragery. It appears that lower middle income people may have stopped remembering Presidents Coolidge and Hoover in the 80s and could have started to become more of a competitive demographic. They still are a little more democratic than professionals and rich people, but it gets closer each year. Maybe the military and the minority community will learn to forgive and forget the 60s in another 10 to 20 years.

[Husker]

Well...Obama was arguably very close in North Dakota and Montana. Nebraska...yeah. I go with that. He was probably pretty popular in non-southern rural areas until he was pinned as being too urban for rural areas, but not too urban for the suburbs.

That's how Obama could win NE-02 (Greater Omaha), lose NE-01 (eastern Nebraska other than Greater Omaha, which includes Lincoln) about 55-45, and lose NE-03 by about a 70-30 margin. Greater Omaha isn't that much different from Kansas City, Des Moines, or the Quad Cities, all of which went firmly for Obama. Lancaster County (which includes Lincoln) went for Obama, likely because of the large University of Nebraska. But the University of Nebraska isn't quite as large as is the University of Michigan system, and aside from Lincoln, NE-01 is quite rural.
 
I made many predictions suggesting that Obama would win NE-02 because Omaha is what it is, although it would be closer because of the large Air Force presence (SAC) that would make it less liberal than, say, Kansas City. Because eastern Nebraska (NE-02) is indistinguishable from Iowa I figured that it would be much like the more rural parts of Iowa and would be at most 10 points away. Western Nebraska? The last electoral vote that Obama would ever get -- after Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming. 

Pretty spot on analysis. Lincoln is very much of a middle of the road city currently with liberals and conservatives well represented. The difference in 2008 seemed to be the defection of many moderates to Obama. As time goes on and UNL grows, the city becomes more diverse (we are a huge haven for refugees here), and my generation starts taking control.. the more liberal this area will tilt. There has been a slow, gradual tilt to democrats here since the 1960's and I expect that to continue.. unless the GOP can win back moderates. Omaha will probably also become more democratic; thus, I could see (at least portions of the state) being competitive in the future. Democrats can win some places in rural eastern Nebraska if things are right but Hell will freeze over before anything in the west goes democratic.