Kerry Pulls Campaign Ads From Four States: AZ, AR, LA, MO

[NHPolitico]

By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

WASHINGTON - Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri.

The decision to shrink his political playing field reduces Kerry's strategic options — at least for now — in the homestretch of the campaign. George W. Bush won all four states in 2000, and Kerry can't win the White House without taking a state or two from the Republican incumbent.

While pulling back from some states that Bush carried, Kerry is still strongly competing in several GOP-leaning battlegrounds, including Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Ads were scheduled to begin airing Oct. 5 in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri as part of a $5 million investment through Nov. 2, but campaign advisers concluded Kerry isn't doing well enough in the states to justify the cost.

The campaign, which has reserved commercial time in 20 states through Election Day, notified television stations in the four states that Kerry would not follow through on his plans for the first week of October.

Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Arizona, Arkansas and Louisiana are unlikely to see Kerry ads unless there is a major shift in the campaign's dynamics. Missouri is still the subject of debate inside the campaign, with some advisers pushing to advertise in the traditional swing state.

With its burgeoning exurbs and rural areas turning more Republican every day, Missouri cannot be won by Kerry in a close race, some advisers have concluded. But some think it's important for the Democrat to spend money there, forcing President Bush to defend the GOP turf.

Bush and the Republican National Committee have been advertising moderately in Arizona and Missouri. With Kerry chased from those states, Bush can shift their budgets — $330,000 this week alone — to states that Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore won four years ago.

Kerry spent about $15 million in the four states, half of it in Missouri, trying to put them in play. It was part of a strategy to stretch the battlefield into GOP territory, from Virginia and North Carolina in the South to Arizona in the Southwest and Nevada in the West.

Constantly shifting their strategies, both campaigns recently increased their ad budgets in West Virginia and Colorado. Bush has boosted his ads in Minnesota, Maine and Oregon — all states won by Gore that Kerry can't afford to lose.

Kerry ads are running in 14 of the 20 states in which he reserved commercial time. His schedule calls for ads to begin airing next month in Washington state and North Carolina.

[A18]

Uh, Kerry was running ads in Louisiana?

[NHPolitico]

I'm just upset he learned how fruitless this spending was so early. Too bad he didn't flush more cash down the toilet.

[Sam Spade]

Missouri is the big one here.

Why he was advertising in LA is beyond me.

[Lunar]

He rightly was trying to keep as many states in play as possible before it was clear where the chips lay.

I'm surprised about Missouri which only seems to be +3% in favor of Bush.  I don't know about Arkansas due to the lack of polling in the state.

[The Vorlon]

Uh, Kerry was running ads in Louisiana?

Token buy about $300K or so

[A18]

I think they misoverestimated (intended) a northeasten candidate's chances.

[Sam Spade]

Reasearch 2000 and Mason-Dixon have polled Missouri recently and told us both Bush was up 7.  I believe that margin.

I personally believe Bush is probably up the same margin in Arkansas, though no polls will prove this to me.  I'm just basing this on today's ARG poll, which says Bush up 3 and adding the ARG typical 3% point bias or more in Southern states.  Also, Bush has moved some of his campaign staff out of Arkansas too, and there is no advertising there right now, telling me that his campaign and Kerry's are on the same page.

What rule does this tell us?  Don't believe Zogby's internet-based poll junk.

[The Vorlon]

I'm surprised about Missouri which only seems to be +3% in favor of Bush.  

ARG  - Bush +6
Mason-Dixon - Bush +7
Research 2000  - Bush +7

Kerry needs to move things nationally by 6-7% to get Missouri.

If he can't move it 7, he wastes money in Missouri.

If he does move it 7, he doesn't need Missouri.

The right call for Kerry

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Kerry needs to move things nationally by 6-7% to get Missouri.

If he can't move it 7, he wastes money in Missouri.

If he does move it 7, he doesn't need Missouri.

The right call for Kerry

Right now, he needs to protect the vulnerable Gore turf (WI, IA, NM especially), and start dumping resources (relative to the number of respective EVs) into the only Bush states he has any reasonable shot of winning at this point - FL, WV, and NH.

OH even, at this point, is out of reach.  If I were running the Kerry campaign, I would be pursuing a "Florida or bust" strategy.

[A18]

Bush states Kerry can win: New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Florida

New Hampshire and West Virginia would just bring him to a loss in the House of Representatives.

I say Kerry can't win without Florida, but won't necessarily win if he does get it.

UNLESS current events turn the tide in his direction. But as far as ads and their limited impact go, I'd tackle Florida and make minimum buys in other states like WV.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Your analysis is pretty good.

There were only six states which Bush carried in 2000 which Kerry had a reasonable chance to carry in 2004.

Those six states are:

Florida
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
West Virginia

The simple math indicates that if Kerry is to win outright he must carry as least one of the following:

Florida
Missouri
Ohio

That presumes he carries New Hampshire and West Virginia AND doesn't lose a state carried by Gore in 2000.

Having written off Missouri (where his chances were dim) he must now concentrate on Florida and Ohio.

More importantly, he really cann't afford to lose a state of any significant size (or combination of small states) carried by Gore in 2000.

Right now it looks like he is in trouble in:

Iowa
Maine
Michigan
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Kerry is like a poker player who was dealt a hand with four cards in sequence and one not in sequence, who discards the one NOT in sequence in the hopes of filling a straight (not too likely).

[Lunar]

Do you have any polls from Vermont?  It seems like it is still Dean and Sanders country.

I know you disagree with me, but I would say that Bush has already won if he takes Washington, Michigan, New Jersey, or ME1.

I agree with your analysis of the states Kerry has a shot in (Although MO seems out now), but disagree with the Gore 2000 ones that will be close in a tied election.

Iowa
ME2
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Minnesota (maybe)

[A18]

Kerry is obviously well behind in Ohio, Nevada, or Missouri though. Can he win them? It's possible, but ad buys aren't going to change anything.

Current events could still sway things either way. But as it stands now, I only think three Bush states are in play.

Ads are for close states. It's news that closes gaps and narrows leads.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Do you have any polls from Vermont?  It seems like it is still Dean and Sanders country.

I know you disagree with me, but I would say that Bush has already won if he takes Washington, Michigan, New Jersey, or ME1.

I agree with your analysis of the states Kerry has a shot in (Although MO seems out now), but disagree with the Gore 2000 ones that will be close in a tied election.

Iowa
ME2
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Minnesota (maybe)

First to Iowa.

Not only are several reputable polls showing Bush ahead, there is also a reason for this.  In the past four presidential elections, the Democrats had an effective GOTV effort in that state while the Republicans didn't.  This year the Republicans are working Iowa, and are likely to win.

Second, Maine.

The hunters rights initiative in that state is really effective for Bush.

Also, once again, the Republican GOTV effort.

Third, Michigan.

The marriage issue on the ballot will help Bush there.

Also, once again, the GOTV drive.

Fourth, New Jersey.

The Democrats are really killing themselves there.

Again, GOTV,

BTW, several polls show it very close.

Fifth, New Mexico,

Several polls show it slipping to Bush.

Again, GOTV.

Sixth, Oregon.

Gap in registration closer than in 2000,

Measure 36 (marriage)

Several polls showing Bush slightly ahead.

Once again, Republican GOTV drive.

Seventh, Pennsylvania

Several polls show Bush with a slight lead.

This was the state where Gore had his most effective GOTV drive in 2000 (not as effective this year for Demos).

Republican GOTV drive in effect this year.

Eighth, Vermont,

Just about everyone assumes that Vermont is some left wing paradise.  The truth of the matter is that the Republicans in the Green Mountain state have for years run up the white flag before the political battle began.

They themselves were surprised when the electorate voted a number of Democrats out of office in the state legislature for their actions.

Ninth, Washington

A number of polls show it very close (some with Bush ahead, some with Kerry ahead).
The voters are irked about the abolition of the Blanket Primary.

The Boeing workers are anti-French (a la the Airbus competition).

Much of the state (even in the Puget Sound) are a little tired of the extremists in the Democrat party.

Tenth, Wisconsin,

A number of polls show Bush ahead.

GOTV.

Eleventh,

Don't see Bush carrying Minnesota (but I could be wrong).

[Monty]

Kerry is like a poker player who was dealt a hand with four cards in sequence and one not in sequence, who discards the one NOT in sequence in the hopes of filling a straight (not too likely).

I'm afraid Carl's started a new trend of poker analogies.  In the next week, all we're hear is flush draw this, and flush draw that.  

[Lunar]

As I said, I agree with you about
 Iowa
ME2
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin.

However, I don't see the Gun issue flipping ME1 the necessary 5+%.

Michigan- The polls have pretty consistantly shown Kerry to be strong here.  In addition, the Democratic machine in the state is relatively strong, especially in Detroit.

For New Jersey to be close in a tie, the Republicans WILL need an expensive GOTV effort and they will need to buy ads in the expensive New York media markets.  Neither candidate seems to take those polls seriously since they both seem to be ignoring a huge EV state.

In Oregon, Nader is off the ballot and the Democratic machine is pretty strong in the state, but I still think it will be relatively close in a tie.

You justify Vermont off local politics, but I don't think that's enough.  Otherwise you'd think that Louisiana would be a Democratic paradise.

You paint Washington as a tossup according to the polls, but the polls slant in favor of Kerry by quite a bit, perhaps even as much as 5%, or the amount that Gore carried the state by: Link

The polls have pretty consistantly shown Bush to be around 3% worse than his national average in Minnesota.  I've actually been amazed by how many polls show this again and again.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Ok, lets look at some polls.

New Jersey (Quinnipiac poll conducted 9/16-29)

Oregon (Mason-Dixon poll conducted 0/14-16)

Washington (Moore Information poll conducted 9/29-20)

There hasn't been a poll in Michigan since the Marriage issue was put on the ballot.

With respect to Vermont, the losses the Democrats sustained were NOT simply individual races, but races decided on the gay union vote.

Finally, while the polls on the surface look reasonable for Bush in Minnesota, below the surface it doesn't look as good.

[A18]

What's bad for Bush in Minnesota?

[NYGOP]

This means Kerry will not win these states. He can't now.

We can officially declare victory. Bush is now comfortably in the lead in Ohio, will most likely win Wisconsin, and will win these states.

Only a terrible showing by Bush in the debates can take a sure victory away from him, and we know Bush is a good debator. Kerry can't really take Bush on without assuming a Howard Dean style role, which will just turn people off.

[A18]

I must disagree. Current events could still throw the election to Kerry; we just don't know.

But I'm optimistic

[mddem2004]

If I were the one pulling the strings in the Kerry Camp, I would allocate my resources in the following order of importance:

Florida
Pennsylvania  (defensive)
Ohio
Wisconsin       (defensive)
Iowa               (defensive)
West Virginia
Colorado
Nevada
Minnesota       (defensive)
New Hampshire
New Mexico     (defensive)
Oregon            (defensive)
Missouri

Arkansas may yet again come into play but I never thought Arizona or Louisianna ever were. Missouri should remain on the bankroll a little longer, if anything to force Bush to spend there as well, yet I doubt it is turnable for Kerry short of a severe downturn for Bush.

[struct310]

If Kerry were solid in Washington, he wouldnt be making ad buys there.  Internal GOTV and polling must be terrible in the state.  Bush can pull a big win there and sweep Republicans back into power in the state for the first time in 20ys.

[CARLHAYDEN]

What's bad for Bush in Minnesota?

The Republican victories in Minnesota in the past few years have been as a result of obnoxious overbearing meanspirited incompetence by the Democrats.

They have had a lot of that beaten out of them.

Fundamentally, Minnesota is a left-leaning Democrat state.

The Democrats are hungry to take it back, and are avoiding making more stupid mistakes there.

[A18]

Yeah, but Bush is a pretty popular president