Is Blue fading in the Northeast?

[zorkpolitics]

Clearly something interesting is happening in the Northeast.  Except for NH, Gore carried the following states by 17% to 26%:

NH Bush ahead by 9 (Mason Dixon)
NY Kerry ahead by only 5 (Rasmussen)
NY Kerry ahead by only 8 (Marist)
CT Kerry ahead by only 7 (Quinnipiac)
NJ Bush ahead by 4 (Survey USA)
NJ Kerry ahead by only  3  (Strategic Vision)
NJ Tied (Quinnipiac)  New poll! Sep 21
MD Tied (survey USA)

Of course each time one of these polls came out everybody shouted outlier! or bad poll!  But collectivley they indicate a massive erosion of Kerry support

In the absence of advertising by either side, Kerry has failed to develop the natural support a Demcorat should expect in the NE.

[Sam Spade]

One of the places where Bush severely underperformed in 2000 was in the suburban parts of the North where all those liberal-to-moderate Rockefeller Republicans live.

His performing better in these areas post-RNC might be due to gaining some of this former (as in the 1980s) base vote back.

[A18]

Is Blue supposed to mean Democrat?

[MODU]

Yes.  Traditionally, Republicans are Red and Democrats are Blue.

[A18]

I'm pretty sure that's just as of 2000

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm pretty sure that's just as of 2000

We were always a Peter Jennings family when I was growing up, and I distinctly remember Democrats as red in 88, 92, and 96.

I was flipping around so much in 2000, I forgot what TV stations used what scheme.  I think Bravo used forest green and lemon yellow accented with art deco stencilling.

[MODU]

Personally, I like the Blue color for Republicans.  I've always remembered Republican Presidential signs being blue, and Democratic being Red and Blue.

[StevenNick]

IF these state polls are accurate, Kerry is dead.  If Kerry can't even carry his home terf, the solidly democratic Northeast, there is no way he's going to be able to carry any of the swing states.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But you proponents of the electoral college insist that it doesn't matter whether Kerry wins NY by 1 vote or 3 million votes.

[Nym90]

I'm pretty sure that's just as of 2000

We were always a Peter Jennings family when I was growing up, and I distinctly remember Democrats as red in 88, 92, and 96.

I was flipping around so much in 2000, I forgot what TV stations used what scheme.  I think Bravo used forest green and lemon yellow accented with art deco stencilling.

Hmm. I watched CNN in 1996 and 2000, and know for sure that Democrats were blue. I have tapes from those elections, so I definitely know this. From 1984, 1988, and 1992, I watched the coverage, but don't remember which colors were for who.

[Sam Spade]

Traditionally, the party that's the incumbent party has its states colored blue whenever reporting state-by-state outcomes.  The challenger party's states are obviously then reported as red.

This year, The Republican party's states will be blue, Democrat's will be red.  1996 and 2000, Democrats were blue, Republicans were red.  1984, 1988, 1992 Republicans were blue, Democrats were red, and on and so forth...

[zorkpolitics]

The press refers ot the Republican states Bush won in 2000 as the Red states and the Gore states as the Blue states.  I don't remember that terminalogy carrying forward from the last election before.   It will be interesitng to see if they retain those colors this year and break tradition?

BTW New poll from Quinnipiac in NJ: The trend continues, tied among likely voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bush appears to have regain a large section of the old moderate suburbanite GOP base in the Northeast.
However as his national lead is fairly modest, he has almost certainly lost support somewhere else... I'm interested to hear you're opinions on where.

[Sam Spade]

When you average the state polls out, you come up with roughly a 4 point Bush lead nationwide.

The only states from 2000, I can Bush having lost any support are NC and Colorado, maybe SC, Virginia and WV too, but those would be more questionable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When you average the state polls out, you come up with roughly a 4 point Bush lead nationwide.

The only states from 2000, I can Bush having lost any support are NC and Colorado, maybe SC, Virginia and WV too, but those would be more questionable.

It depends how big Bush's lead is nationally though...
Good post though... So far you've been a fairly objective poster... keep it up

Generally I think that Bush has lost support in working class small town areas... but that so far Kerry hasn't gained their votes yet.
As for WV, Bush has certainly lost support in the Northern Panhandle and the Coalfield... he may have gained in the Charleston 'burbs.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I try to keep myself on the level with regards to polling, because that's the way you have to be in order to not lose your mind every time one single poll come out (imagine how it was to be a Bush supporter in August, for example).

One of the key reasons why the 2000 election was so divided state-by-state wise (a few states that were really close, many states that were landslides) was because Bush overperformed in many rural areas of the country and underperformed in many suburban areas of the country, most importantly in the Northeast US.

Strangely enough, this latter region is where most of the Bush bounce seems to have occurred.  What Kerry has to do to win in my mind is take back some of this gain in the NE suburbs and win some rural voters away that Bush got in 2000.   Not an easy thing to do, since they are fairly different constituencies.

This is the reason why his recent gun control talk confuses the heck out of me, because its a sure issue to losing rural American voters and you won't necessarily gain the NE suburbs with it.

About WV, one of things that will make it trend more Rep. in the future is the skyrocketing growth of those Rep. Charleston suburbs.  In the opposite way, the growth of the Dem. DC suburbs will make Virginia trend more Dem. in future elections.  This of course, won't have the greatest of effects now.  Just a point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

About WV, one of things that will make it trend more Rep. in the future is the skyrocketing growth of those Rep. Charleston suburbs.  In the opposite way, the growth of the Dem. DC suburbs will make Virginia trend more Dem. in future elections.  This of course, won't have the greatest of effects now.  Just a point.

Growth in the Charleston 'burbs has been able to make the gap in the WV legislature slightly less humiliating... I don't think it'll have much of an effect at Presidential level as the geography of WV restricts *massive* suburban growth (unless the 'burbs expanded further North... but NW WV (except the panhandle obviously) has been solidly Republican since the Civil War so it won't have a large effect... expanding too far upstream would piss off Democrat/UMW bosses... I don't see many developers taking that risk... (but if they do I can brush off those old "come home to a real fire... buy a house in Wales" jokes...)
I think suburban growth might help the GOP in tight Presidential elections mind.
Maybe even help them win the odd statewide elected office.

[Light Touch]

But you proponents of the electoral college insist that it doesn't matter whether Kerry wins NY by 1 vote or 3 million votes.

It matters if the trend continues and NY swings.

It also comments on the general approval of the candidate.  If Kerry can't slam dunk NY, then how can he hope to have a prayer in Ohio or Pennsylvania?

[© tweed]

Clearly something interesting is happening in the Northeast.  Except for NH, Gore carried the following states by 17% to 26%:

NH Bush ahead by 9 (Mason Dixon)
NY Kerry ahead by only 5 (Rasmussen)
NY Kerry ahead by only 8 (Marist)
CT Kerry ahead by only 7 (Quinnipiac)
NJ Bush ahead by 4 (Survey USA)
NJ Kerry ahead by only  3  (Strategic Vision)
NJ Tied (Quinnipiac)  New poll! Sep 21
MD Tied (survey USA)

Of course each time one of these polls came out everybody shouted outlier! or bad poll!  But collectivley they indicate a massive erosion of Kerry support

In the absence of advertising by either side, Kerry has failed to develop the natural support a Demcorat should expect in the NE.

My final Northeast Predicitions:

NH Bush by under 10k votes-very close
NY Kerry by 15
NJ Kerry by 6ish
CT Kerry by 12
ME Kerry wins overall state by 5, CD1 by 10, squeaks one out in CD2
VT Kerry by 12
MA Kerry by 20
RI Kerry by 25
PA Bush by 2
DE Kerry by 8