Who do you trust more: Zogby or Nate Silver?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/03/worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again.html

Man, it's going to be amusing if Republicans all start defending Zogby now.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Nate Silver. That's like asking if you would rather have George Washington or King George III as President.

[Landslide Lyndon]

     Nate Silver. That's like asking if you would rather have George Washington or King George III as President.

No, that's more like asking which Laker would you like to take to your team: Kobe Bryant or Jordan Farmar.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Nate Silver. That's like asking if you would rather have George Washington or King George III as President.

No, that's more like asking which Laker would you like to take to your team: Kobe Bryant or Jordan Farmar.

      While the alternative that I posited was rather different in scale, it communicated that one of the choices is rather undesirable compared to the other.

[Zarn]

They are both bad.

[Marokai Backbeat]

     Nate Silver. That's like asking if you would rather have George Washington or King George III as President.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Zogby is erratic, but his results are not a preposterous as represented by some posters on this thread,

If you fo to pollster.com and look at the favorable/unfavorable ratings for Obama in March (there are seven as of this date) and then divide them between polls of "adults" and of "likely voters," you'll see far different results

Group polled          Favorable     Unfavorable

Adults                        69%               26%
Likely Voters              57                  37

[Eraserhead]

Zogby is erratic, but his results are not a preposterous as represented by some posters on this thread,

If you fo to pollster.com and look at the favorable/unfavorable ratings for Obama in March (there are seven as of this date) and then divide them between polls of "adults" and of "likely voters," you'll see far different results

Group polled          Favorable     Unfavorable

Adults                        69%               26%
Likely Voters              57                  37

And that makes his polls valid how exactly?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Zogby is erratic, but his results are not a preposterous as represented by some posters on this thread,

If you fo to pollster.com and look at the favorable/unfavorable ratings for Obama in March (there are seven as of this date) and then divide them between polls of "adults" and of "likely voters," you'll see far different results

Group polled          Favorable     Unfavorable

Adults                        69%               26%
Likely Voters              57                  37

And that makes his polls valid how exactly?

First, you were comparing apples to oranges.  Zogby reported both on rating of job performance (the numbers you cited) and approval (two different questions).  The numbers you cited were for job peformance.  The Zogby approval ratings are:

"His positive ratings (measured as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable and very unfavorable) are now 56% very or somewhat favorable, just one-point below that of March 5."

Now, also a Pollster.com are 15 March "adult" polls on job performance and 12 likely voter polls on the same matter.  The average is as follows

Group polled     Favorable     Unfavorable

Adults                   61%               30%
Likely voters         56                  41

Now, as you can see, Obama's overall favorability rating has pretty consistently been higher than his performance ratings.

Moreover, likely voters are pretty consistently less enamored with Obama than "adults."

Finally, if you check the trend lines for Obama, they have been coming down the last couple of weeks, both overall and job performance.

So, in conclusion, while Zogby's numbers are a little less favorable for Obama than some polls, they aren't far off when compared with other likely voter polls.

I hope this answers your question.

[Bono]

Both are bad for different reasons.

[Eraserhead]

Zogby is erratic, but his results are not a preposterous as represented by some posters on this thread,

If you fo to pollster.com and look at the favorable/unfavorable ratings for Obama in March (there are seven as of this date) and then divide them between polls of "adults" and of "likely voters," you'll see far different results

Group polled          Favorable     Unfavorable

Adults                        69%               26%
Likely Voters              57                  37

And that makes his polls valid how exactly?

First, you were comparing apples to oranges.  Zogby reported both on rating of job performance (the numbers you cited) and approval (two different questions).  The numbers you cited were for job peformance.  The Zogby approval ratings are:

"His positive ratings (measured as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable and very unfavorable) are now 56% very or somewhat favorable, just one-point below that of March 5."

Now, also a Pollster.com are 15 March "adult" polls on job performance and 12 likely voter polls on the same matter.  The average is as follows

Group polled     Favorable     Unfavorable

Adults                   61%               30%
Likely voters         56                  41

Now, as you can see, Obama's overall favorability rating has pretty consistently been higher than his performance ratings.

Moreover, likely voters are pretty consistently less enamored with Obama than "adults."

Finally, if you check the trend lines for Obama, they have been coming down the last couple of weeks, both overall and job performance.

So, in conclusion, while Zogby's numbers are a little less favorable for Obama than some polls, they aren't far off when compared with other likely voter polls.

I hope this answers your question.

It didn't.

[Nym90]

Zogby is erratic, but his results are not a preposterous as represented by some posters on this thread,

If you fo to pollster.com and look at the favorable/unfavorable ratings for Obama in March (there are seven as of this date) and then divide them between polls of "adults" and of "likely voters," you'll see far different results

Group polled          Favorable     Unfavorable

Adults                        69%               26%
Likely Voters              57                  37

As The Vorlon would tell you, "likely voter" screens at this point are a joke. There is no way to say with any degree of certainty what turnout from certain demographic groups will look like in 2010, much less 2012. Of course, he'd tell you a few things about Zogby, too. Though he's not an oracle of course, he is the most reputable poster we have in these matters as he works professionally in the field.

And even if the poll is accurate, he'd still have a higher approval rating than the percentage of the vote he got; not bad by any means at all.

Now Zogby certainly could be right, but only time will tell.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Zogby is erratic, but his results are not a preposterous as represented by some posters on this thread,

If you fo to pollster.com and look at the favorable/unfavorable ratings for Obama in March (there are seven as of this date) and then divide them between polls of "adults" and of "likely voters," you'll see far different results

Group polled          Favorable     Unfavorable

Adults                        69%               26%
Likely Voters              57                  37

As The Vorlon would tell you, "likely voter" screens at this point are a joke. There is no way to say with any degree of certainty what turnout from certain demographic groups will look like in 2010, much less 2012. Of course, he'd tell you a few things about Zogby, too. Though he's not an oracle of course, he is the most reputable poster we have in these matters as he works professionally in the field.

And even if the poll is accurate, he'd still have a higher approval rating than the percentage of the vote he got; not bad by any means at all.

Now Zogby certainly could be right, but only time will tell.

 Nym,

First, its nice you "know" what The Vorlon would say.

Second, you really need to gain a better understanding of survey research.  The surveys deal with probability not "certainty."

Third, while The Vorlon did not like Zogby, I believe he would look at the evidence rather than engage in ad hominem attacks.

Fourth, as to likely voter screens, if you go back and check, both The Vorlon and I were on fundamental agreement that screens based on factors other than current interest are generally valid (past record of participation, SES, etc.).

Finally, in the first few months of the term, most Presidents have higher approval ratings than the vote they received in the previous election.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Nym brought up one interesting point when he noted that Obama's current approval ratings are higher than the percentage of the vote he received at the general election.

However, if you take a look at the record, approval ratings for Presidents in their first few months of office typically significantly exceed the percentage of the vote they received at the previous election.

Here are a few examples (I'm using March Gallup poll results for consistency, and rounding the actual election percentage to the nearest whole number for simplicity):

President        Election     Poll      Ratio

Obama            53%        63%      1.19
Bush II            48           63         1.31
Clinton            43           55         1.28
Bush I             53           56         1.06
Reagan           51           60         1.18
Carter             50           75         1.50
Nixon              43           66         1.53
Kennedy         50           73         1.46
Eisenhower    55           74         1.35

So, the approval ratings in March merely indicate that the American people historically provide a newly elected President with a honeymoon for the first few months.

[Sam Spade]

I'm just waiting for the moment when we find out which of these characters lies more to promote their own reputation, not to mention their goals.

We already have a lot of evidence on one.

[Torie]

I'm just waiting for the moment when we find out which of these characters lies more to promote their own reputation, not to mention their goals.

We already have a lot of evidence on one.

Somebody has a track record of dissembling?