Will Obama and McCain be tied or within two points of each other...

[Keystone Phil]

Your opinions.

I say that they'll be dead even on Friday according to either Rasmussen or Gallup.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Yes; I'm expecting things to stay at around Obama +2 for most of the campaign.

[Smash255]

What if one poll has it within two and the other a 6 or 7 point lead?  Posters who make a guess on either one could them claim they are right...

with that being said I would say some polls might have it that close, but I think it will be just outside that with the consensus in the Obama +3 or +4 range.

[Keystone Phil]

What if one poll has it within two and the other a 6 or 7 point lead?  Posters who make a guess on either one could them claim they are right...

We have three major national tracking polls that we follow here - Gallup, Rasmussen and Diaego. I'm sure two of those three will at least agree and we'll go by those two.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Yes.

I expect both Obama and McCain to be within two points of each other throughout the entire campaign, however I do expect Senator Obama to maintain a narrow lead over Senator McCain which will carry Senator Obama to victory on Election Day.

[Eraserhead]

What if one poll has it within two and the other a 6 or 7 point lead?  Posters who make a guess on either one could them claim they are right...

We have three major national tracking polls that we follow here - Gallup, Rasmussen and Diaego. I'm sure two of those three will at least agree and we'll go by those two.

Diaego is basically a joke poll and Gallup is still the "gold standard" as far as national polling is concerned. Not all polls are created equal.

[J. J.]

Yes.

[Vsanto5]

I don't think so I think that Obama will have something like at +3 lead in the RCP average.  And after the debate Obama +1.5 in the RCP average.  A few days after the last third Obama +4,  I really think Obama is going to expose him on the economy and Biden is going to destroy Palin on national security and the economy. 

[Thomas Jackson]

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Final 2004 Gallup Poll.

Bush 49%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1%

Actual Results:

Bush 50.73%
Kerry 48.27%
Nader .38%

That's some gold standard.

(Not to mention, Gallup is REGISTERED voters, not likely.)

[Eraserhead]

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Final 2004 Gallup Poll.

Bush 49%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1%

Actual Results:

Bush 50.73%
Kerry 48.27%
Nader .38%

That's some gold standard.

(Not to mention, Gallup is REGISTERED voters, not likely.)

That was a bad final poll how exactly? They came very close to the actual result, chucklehead.

[Thomas Jackson]

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It was a bad poll when you consider that others got it EXACTLY right:

TIPP
   
Bush 50.1%   
Kerry 48.0%   
   
Rasmussen

Bush 50.2%
Kerry 48.5%

Pew

Bush 51.0%
Kerry 48.0%
   
In fact, Gallup was beat by CBS, ABC, Tarrance, Harris, NBC, and ZOGBY as well.

[Thomas Jackson]

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Most likely older than you.

Old enough to see an attempt to change the subject.

The fact is, someone here claimed that Gallup was the "gold standard" in polling.

Gallup didn't do so well in the 2004 election. 9 Other polling firms did a better job with the final results. Gallup ranked among the worse.

That's a fact.

[Thomas Jackson]

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I understand statistics, and I know where you are trying to go with your post.

But your point is irrelevant.

Gallup is NOT the gold standard in polling.

(And as I suspected, I am older than you, by a good bit.)

(And No, I will not reveal personal information about myself on an internet discussion board.)

[Eraserhead]

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Most likely older than you.

Old enough to see an attempt to change the subject.

The fact is, someone here claimed that Gallup was the "gold standard" in polling.

Gallup didn't do so well in the 2004 election. 9 Other polling firms did a better job with the final results. Gallup ranked among the worse.

That's a fact.

Rasmussen is the best pollster in the business right now. Not Gallup.

No, I'm serious.  I want to know.  I'm 21.  At least tell me what you do for a living.  You seem to not understand basic statistics, that's all.

Were you around for his anti-Hillary/pro-Obama persona? He used to refer to Hillary as "Hillary!" in every thread. He's just a troll and not a very amusing one at that.

[Lunar]

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I understand statistics, and I know where you are trying to go with your post.

But your point is irrelevant.

Gallup is NOT the gold standard in polling.

You do?  Ok.  Other posters have asked what you do for a living too, so I'm repeating the question because I'm interested in who you are besides a freeper (nothing wrong with that).  I don't know why you won't say your age or whatever.  Xahar is 14 and we have lots of high schoolers.  Other people are a lot older.  Some people *cough* are twentysomethings with the immaturity of people much, much younger.

Well, then you'll know that proving a firm is bad because the firm missed each candidate's support by 1% is actually doing the opposite.  My respect for Gallup went up after I saw those numbers, I forgot how close they were.

[Thomas Jackson]

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I was never "pro-obama" I was anti-hillary. There is a clear difference. I recognized that Hillary presented a far greater threat (both politically, and if she ever made it to the White House) than Obama did. As McCain already had the nomination locked up, combating Hillary was the primary task.

And I explained my reasons for the "!" numerous times.  

[Thomas Jackson]

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And I won't answer them. Revealing information about yourself is never a good idea. In fact, even if "information" is revealed it doesn't mean much. On the internet, nothing should ever be taken for face value.

Even IP addresses shouldn't be relied upon.

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OK.

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There is a difference between saying Gallup is bad (which is not what I said). And pointing out that they are NOT the gold standard in polling.

[Thomas Jackson]

BTW: Who do YOU consider to be the "gold standard" in polling?

[Lunar]

BTW: Who do YOU consider to be the "gold standard" in polling?

Mason-Dixon, natch.  But it depends on the state.  Rasmussen is probably the best firm that spews polls, but Gallup is really good as well, in different ways.  Gallup tends to get better once you start getting closer to the election.