FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling (CO, FL, OH, PA, VA)

[Keystone Phil]

I have to admit as a Republican you don't want to see Obama leading by 2 in PA right after the debate. PA is a pretty strong lean toward Obama.

...

The debate?

And the idea that this is a "strong lean" state for Obama is simply a comment that has been said so many times and people just accept it as the truth. It isn't.

[Reds4]

Phil,

Mispoke, sorry. I meant after the convention. The point is that PA looks to be a state that wouldn't go McCain unless the national number was something like 4 or 5.

[RJ]

Not quite sure what to make of the Ohio poll. About 6 weeks ago, PPP came out with a poll that said Obama by 8 in Ohio. The very next day, Rassy had one that said McCain by 10 in Ohio. I would not by any means take Ohio off the board for Obama.

And the idea that this is a "strong lean" state for Obama is simply a comment that has been said so many times and people just accept it as the truth. It isn't.

Is it "strong" or is it "lean?" Pennsylvania is still going to be an uphill fight for McCain either way. He hasn't led in a single poll there in quite some time. And, in spite of the fact that McCain has currently peaked(not saying he couldn't do better tomorrow) he still isn't in front in PA. I won't say this particular state isn't contested, but I doubt it will decide the election. States like New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and even Michigan will probably change hands before PA.

I'm not sure why everyone on this board is continually surprised at the polling in Florida. I think it might lean McCain ever so slightly, but once again it's contested, probably more so than even Pennsylvania. Kerry gave up there in 2004 because of the hurricane that hit there in campaign season then and decided to concentrate on Ohio, one of the mistakes he made in his camapign, Florida will be much closer this time around.

VA and CO are where I'd expect them to be.

The point is that PA looks to be a state that wouldn't go McCain unless the national number was something like 4 or 5.

I totally agree.

[Keystone Phil]

Is it "strong" or is it "lean?"

Plenty of people say "strong lean" which I guess means "likely."

 

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But there are plenty of undecided voters. More than almost every other state.

[Flying Dog]

Colorado makes sense, I guess. Florida is a surprise -- one of the few states that Biden helped in noticably, maybe. Ohio... is Ohio. I always had a fear that Virginia would take a sharp turn towards McCain. It hasn't seemed to have happened as of yet. Pennsylvania makes sense. 

[Lief 🗽]

I can live with that.

Me too.

A win is a win, but NV, OH, and VA would help. Best to have some margin of error. FL is a bit of a surprise, but I guess Palin really doesn't play well with Jewish retirees.

Well, my point was that I'm perfectly fine with Obama winning the electoral college like this while McCain is at the highest point he's ever been in this campaign.

[Wiz in Wis]

First... Ohio

Are you guys seriously gloating that after a big shift to McCain, his margin in Ohio only grew by 2! Coupled with shotty showings in CO and FL, I wouldn't be too happy with these, considering McCain is supposedly gaining like 10 points vs last week...

Wonder what these would have looked like a week ago Sunday.

Also, Nate at 538 suggested that Palin would play bad in FL, and Biden would help... he seems somewhat vindicated here.

[Tender Branson]

Yay for Colorado !

[Aizen]

Unfortunately for the Republicans, winning Ohio and Florida won't be enough this year. They'll need Colorado too.

[Gustaf]

Just remember... Kerry's states + IA + NM +CO = victory

Just remember... Kerry's states + IA + NM +CO = victory

But there needs to be some margin of error. I thought OH would be close but I think the Palin pick energizes enough of the crazies in SW OH to give Mccain the victory. FL could be a place to throw money at but that will probably vote for Mccain in the end too. VA can be won but only with an incredible GOTV effort combined with a lackluster effort on the republican side.

And this is the attitude that liberal elites have about small town  Americans that causes democrats to get their brains bashed in every 4 years.

And they wonder how A man like George Bush who was hated in Georgetown and San Fransisco could get reelected and get tens of millions  of more votes more than Bill Clinton
ever could have dreamed of

Keep having that attitude and we will keep taking the White House every 4 years

I guess we just CLING  to our guns  religion too much.....

I was talking about evangelicals and not small town america in general. I have no problem with guns or religion, as long as that religion is not stuffed down my mouth. It's things like prayer in school and creationism in schools that piss me off the most. Small town America doesn't do that, evangelicals and other religious nutjobs do.

In fact, I feel at home in small mountain towns.  I love my hometown of Lander. I really like Jackson, most small towns in Vermont and many small towns in Colorado. These small towns have sh**tloads of fun guns, but they do not worship Gop in their churches. If Obama can hold the front range, he could probably lose the PV, but still be alright. 

I always thought there were better things to do in churches. Like keg parties.

[Brittain33]

Biden and Hillary Clinton are camped out in Florida this week. Biden has spent a lot of time there. They may have been flying under the radar last week, but there placement is no accident.

[Person Man]

Just remember... Kerry's states + IA + NM +CO = victory

Just remember... Kerry's states + IA + NM +CO = victory

But there needs to be some margin of error. I thought OH would be close but I think the Palin pick energizes enough of the crazies in SW OH to give Mccain the victory. FL could be a place to throw money at but that will probably vote for Mccain in the end too. VA can be won but only with an incredible GOTV effort combined with a lackluster effort on the republican side.

And this is the attitude that liberal elites have about small town  Americans that causes democrats to get their brains bashed in every 4 years.

And they wonder how A man like George Bush who was hated in Georgetown and San Fransisco could get reelected and get tens of millions  of more votes more than Bill Clinton
ever could have dreamed of

Keep having that attitude and we will keep taking the White House every 4 years

I guess we just CLING  to our guns  religion too much.....

I was talking about evangelicals and not small town america in general. I have no problem with guns or religion, as long as that religion is not stuffed down my mouth. It's things like prayer in school and creationism in schools that piss me off the most. Small town America doesn't do that, evangelicals and other religious nutjobs do.

In fact, I feel at home in small mountain towns.  I love my hometown of Lander. I really like Jackson, most small towns in Vermont and many small towns in Colorado. These small towns have sh**tloads of fun guns, but they do not worship Gop in their churches. If Obama can hold the front range, he could probably lose the PV, but still be alright. 

I always thought there were better things to do in churches. Like keg parties.

Gop /= God