The deciding 2nd quarter

[Tender Branson]

Scenario A:

It's mid-April: Polls show Hillary Clinton beating Barack Obama by 8-12% in PA. Separate polls show Obama ahead by 10-20% in North Carolina and 5-10% in Indiana. On election day, Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 15%. Due to her better than expected result in PA, polls in the following two weeks show that Obama's margins in NC and IN are slightly narrowing. On May 6, he still wins Indiana by 5% and North Carolina by 12%. Clinton stays in the race. West Virginia goes to Clinton by 22. On May 20, Clinton wins Kentucky by 18, Obama wins Oregon by 5. Clinton again states that she'll stay in the race. She wins Puerto Rico 57-43. The primary season ends with moderate Obama wins in South Dakota and Montana. Obama has 1.700 pledged delegates and 260 super-delegates. A flood of high-ranking Democratic officials and undecided super-delegates are ready to support Obama and urge Clinton to drop out. John Edwards endorses Obama. Clinton concedes in the second half of June and endorses Obama.

Scenario B:

It's mid-April: Polls show Hillary Clinton beating Obama by 8-12% In PA. On election day however, Clinton wins by only 6%. Despite her worse than expected showing, Clinton insists on staying in the race and focuses on Indiana and North Carolina. She never really manages to overcome Obama's 10% lead in Indiana and 20% lead in North Carolina though. Obama easily wins both states on May 6. John Edwards endorses Obama on May 7. Clinton decides to end her campaign on May 10, after high-ranking Democratic officials urged her to drop out and undecided super-delegates voiced their support for Obama. Also, Evan Bayh urged her to drop out after losing his home state. Clinton refuses to endorse Obama.

Well ?

[Meeker]

A. It seems to basically be trade off between an extra month or month and a half of Obama general election campaign vs. party unity. I'll take party unity easily

[specific_name]

A, option B is simply too optimistic for Obama. Option A seems like the likely course of events from here on out. 

[Ben.]

There are account of soldiers with fatal wounds, that should by all rights have incapacitated them, being so caught up in the combat in which they are involved that they fight on regardless, unaware of the seriousness of the damage done… I think we’re seeing a similar thing with the Clinton campaign, they cant win but they can still fight and as they cant countenance losing its all they can do.       

[Torie]

Something between A and B. If Obama wins NC handsomely and at least ties in Indiana, and is running substantially better than Clinton against McCain at that time in the polls, the supers break to Obama, and Clinton is out. That is the most likely scenario I see.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Option A, easily.

[Gustaf]

"like" as in want to happen or "like" as in think will happen? I think the most likely scenario right now is that the primary season will end but that Obama will  be coronated once it's over. Clinton will want to stay in as long as she can win primaries.

The one thing people seem to be ignoring is that Obama is still relatively new to the national stage. He can still be swiftboated. Or he could simply make some serious gaffe. Clinton is still close enough that a serious foul-up from Obama would make her the nominee with certainty. That's worth staying in for if you've sacrificed this much to get there, even if the probability of it happening is pretty low. It still wouldn't take THAT much to change the dynamics and make Clinton a serious player again. 

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Why would Obama win by 5-10 points in Indiana, a.k.a. the Most Racist State in the Union?

[Torie]

Why would Obama win by 5-10 points in Indiana, a.k.a. the Most Racist State in the Union?

That is a rather tendentious assertion.

Indiana is a very traditional state however, and might be more hostile than many to the idea of a female president. Indianapolis is a white collar town, and is demgraphically significant in the state,  and that might Obama some.  It is also I think an open primary state, which has the potential to help Obama some, although it was a split of GOP crossovers in Ohio. I do think Obama will be lucky to get a tie here however, unless the overall plate tectonics of the race as a whole has moved in his direction.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Option A, of course .

Option B seems too kind to Obama. Even with Hillary not endorsing his candidacy for the White House. The Media would turn Hillary into an even bigger monster, than she already is if scenario B were to occur.

[TomC]

Well, option B would ensure Clinton would NEVER get the Democratic nomination, so it's tempting. If option B, what would Bill do?

I voted A thugh.

[Lincoln Republican]

Option B of course.

I would love to see a bitterly divided Democtatic Party going into the election.

Ralistically, though, If Hillary loses the nomination, I hav not doubt whatsoever that she will be gracious and magnanimous in defeat, and will, of course, fully endorse and support Obama, certainly in public.   

[RJEvans]

OPTION C

Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 10%-15%. She wins Indiana by 1%-5% and loses North Carolina by 15%-20%. She wins West Virginia and Kentucky by 15%-20% and goes on to win Puerto Rico by 10%-15%. She loses South Dakota and Montana by moderate margins. South Dakota is closer than expected because of the closed primary. Clinton wins the popular vote but loses the pledged delegate count. John Edwards endorses Hillary Clinton because Obama screwed it with Healthcare. Hillary Clinton reminds Democrats of 2000, Gore vs. Bush. Superdelegates take sides, but neither candidate gets 2,025. FL and MI plans are implemented and Hillary Clinton is nominated. On to the general election.

[Lunar]

MasterRegal, there is no way, even including FL&Mi, that your numbers result in anywhere near a  Hilldawg popular vote victory.  See my number-crunching thread thingy that's near the top of the thread list at the moment.

[Nym90]

Option A. Clinton failing to endorse Obama would be very bad news (although it's extremely unlikely to happen IMO).

[Tender Branson]

Both scenarios are now somewhat unlikely, because Clinton currently leads in Indiana.