🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[DL]

What makes people think the NDP "isn't trying" in St. Paul's? I get inundated with emails asking for donations and to help with the campaign and I live in another riding nearby. Let's not forget that in 2018 the ONDP wasn't prioritizing St. Paul's at all until about a week before the election and then shocked everyone by winning it! 

[King of Kensington]

Of course the NDP was 15 points ahead of the Liberals province-wide when that happened, though.

[toaster]

There was a Mainstreet poll showing essentially a three way tie in Mississauga, Parrish at 17%, Damerla at 16% and Tedjo at 15% (with Dasko at 12%), and 33% undecided.  I really thought there was going to be some kind of an anti-Parrish coalition, but with things this close, I don't think so. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Without a real progressive in the race, there is no need for voters to coalesce around a candidate to stop them. But, I can't find any evidence of a new poll by Mainstreet. Their last poll from May 17 showed Parrish up by 9 points.

[DL]

Without a real progressive in the race, there is no need for voters to coalesce around a candidate to stop them. But, I can't find any evidence of a new poll by Mainstreet. Their last poll from May 17 showed Parrish up by 9 points.

There is no real progressive in the race and there is also no real conservative in the race - so its just a race about nothing between three personalities all of whom have big L Liberal backgrounds...I suppose Parrish is what passes for progressive since she isnt jumping on the anti-bike path bandwagon

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, Dasko is a Conservative I think, but he's trailing the other three.

From what I can tell, Tedjo appears to have the more progressive campaign of the four.

[adma]

Of course the NDP was 15 points ahead of the Liberals province-wide when that happened, though.

Conversely, the NDP had no prior fresh record of NDP parliamentary wins in a St Paul's-type riding when that happened (though bits and pieces *have* been represented by the NDP provincially--and even federally, back in the David Lewis days).  Whereas now they have Jill Andrew in her 2nd term, and presumably she has her own provincial incumbent infrastructure in place to "work from" federally.

Though I have seen continued coverage (such as a recent Star article) acting as if the race were only Lib/Con, maybe out of a casual presumption that past dynamics still pertain to the present.  However, I'm seeing (as per the below link) little birdies telling us something potentially a little different.  (Also, what kind of candidate-on-the-ground *is* Leslie Church?  Being a former federal Chief of Staff does give me vague vibes/fears of a "Jess Spindler '18" kind of backroom-hack-sidelining)

https://x.com/fp_905/status/1798882364963110963?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email

[Hatman 🍁]

The poll that toaster mentioned yesterday was released today (I guess it was released to subscribers earlier?):

Parrish: 25% (-7)
Damerla: 24% (+1)
Tedjo: 21% (+6)
Dasko: 18% (-1)
Brian Crombie: 5% (new)

Tedjomentum!

[Hatman 🍁]

And closer to home, Sunday is the Gatineau mayoral by-election. The latest poll from last week:

Maude Marquis-Bissonnette (AG) - 37% (-1)
Yves Ducharme (Ind) - 23% (-4)
Olive Kamanyana (Ind) - 14% (+1)
Stéphane Bisson (Ind) - 11% (+1)
Daniel Feeny (Ind) - 9% (+2)

No evidence of the centre-right vote coalescing behind Ducharme, but I still suspect it will happen. 

[Hatman 🍁]

More Mississauga polls.

Liaison
Parrish: 24% (-5)
Damerla: 23% (-1)
Tedjo: 23% (+4)
Dasko: 18% (+6)
Brian Crombie: 5% (-4)


Pollara
Parrish: 27%
Tedjo: 24%
Dasko: 23%
Damerla: 20%

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

One of the talking points about St. Paul's is "even Ignatieff held it, and Trudeau's not doing as poorly as Ignatieff"

There's also the bit where "even Ford couldn't win it".

If we use the 2011 result, then the Tory ceiling here is in the low 30s (and indeed, Ford's ceiling here was just 26%, so it's entirely possible this riding has shifted left over the last decade), and if we look at the provincial results the Liberal floor is also in the low 30s, but that was due to a strong NDP presence. Without the NDP trying in this race, it's hard to see the Liberals getting close to their floor here.

This assumption might have been a mistake, because now I'm hearing people saying that the NDP has already mounted a pretty impressive lawn sign blitz, for what it's worth.

[King of Kensington]

I mean, there should be an opening for the NDP right now in St. Paul's, given the riding dynamics and disaffection with the Liberals. 

What would be considered a "good" result for the NDP?

[adma]

I mean, there should be an opening for the NDP right now in St. Paul's, given the riding dynamics and disaffection with the Liberals. 

What would be considered a "good" result for the NDP?

Winning a la Jill Andrew?

Otherwise, a quarter of the vote would seem reasonable.  Or maybe just surpassing '11.  Or '21, for that matter, in that it'd reverse that federal NDP pattern of byelection underperformance.

Oh, and I'm starting to see Lib signs, finally.

[Flyersfan232]

I mean, there should be an opening for the NDP right now in St. Paul's, given the riding dynamics and disaffection with the Liberals. 

What would be considered a "good" result for the NDP?

problem is the ndp js officially supporting the liberal government

[King of Kensington]

True, but the riding is very anti-Conservative and has few "populists."  I don't think the charge of "propping up Trudeau" really hurts that much in St. Paul's.

[adma]

True, but the riding is very anti-Conservative and has few "populists."  I don't think the charge of "propping up Trudeau" really hurts that much in St. Paul's.

It doesn't hurt; however, the age-old "Grits make the NDP redundant" argument looms--the notion of, stick with the Grand Poobah rather than flirting with the Second Banana, IOW.  (Particularly when news media still treats it as a 2-way Lib/Con race simply because the NDP has *never* finished higher than 3rd federally in St Paul's--never mind that in recent times, it's mostly been more of a 2-way for 2nd than a 2-way for 1st)

The classic "why vote for the Second Banana" federal election, of course, was 1974.

[King of Kensington]

If the Liberals do not win this riding on June 24, and it looks increasingly like that’s a possibility, there will be immense pressure on Justin Trudeau to resign as their leader immediately — “within days,” a well-known Liberal suggested to me over the weekend.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/maybe-the-knives-come-out-if-the-liberals-lose-this-toronto-byelection-justin-trudeau-could/article_567e8ab4-21e8-11ef-afca-032b93d99247.html

[adma]

Yet another venture into the Vaughan/Oakwood part of the riding yesterday affirms that the NDP are very much "trying in this race"--of course, a lot of that may be old Jill Andrew sign locations, but that so few are *refusing* is impressive.

I really have to go a bit more into the Con-friendlier zones to verify how things are going on *that* front, though (and particularly relative to the Libs)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Oh Jesus, the "Longest Ballot Committee" people are running here too.

If you're going to run a joke campaign, at least make it funny. Like the Rhino Party promising to repeal the laws of gravity or whatever. Or the Green Party being the Green Party. Come on now.

[King of Kensington]

St. Paul's can perhaps be divided into 4 main "zones":  progressive Hillcrest-Humewood, heavily Jewish Forest Hill-Cedarvale, establishmentarian Deer Park-Casa Loma and Yonge-Eglinton (aka "Young and Eligible").

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

St. Paul's can perhaps be divided into 4 main "zones":  progressive Hillcrest-Humewood, heavily Jewish Forest Hill-Cedarvale, establishmentarian Deer Park-Casa Loma and Yonge-Eglinton (aka "Young and Eligible").

It's worth pointing out that Forest Hill is basically where the top 1% of the top 1% live, and even when Tories don't do particularly well with Jewish voters relative to other groups (CPC 2019, PCPO 2018 and 2022), they can still count on the wealthiest parts of Forest Hill to come out for them. I'd imagine even more so now given the recent Capital gains tax hike.

But those 4 "zones" you describe are basically why Liberals are so damn resilient here, they've gotten solid support from all four of those blocs in recent elections. Tories typically don't get much support in Hillcrest/Humewood or Yonge and Eg, while the NDP don't get much support in Deer Park/Casa Loma, let alone Forest Hill.

Given the overall trends, I think it's pretty safe to say that CPC will dominate Cedarvale and Forest Hill, while Deer Park/Casa Loma is the most likely to remain solidly Liberal. But Hillcrest/Humewood and Yonge and Eg have a lot of younger voters, and this is a cohort that's deserting the Liberals, to the benefit of both NDP and Tories. One would assume that big city millennials are more likely to switch LPC->NDP, which would be the opening for a Jill Andrew coalition. But even still, Poilievre polls much better with young voters than Ford, so young voters deserting the Liberals may not be as solid for the NDP as they've been provincially.

[King of Kensington]

Population by neighborhood:

Wychwood  14,365
Humewood-Cedarvale  14,349
Forest Hill South  10,732
Casa Loma  10,968
Yonge-St. Clair  12,528
Mount Pleasant West  29,658

 

[adma]

St. Paul's can perhaps be divided into 4 main "zones":  progressive Hillcrest-Humewood, heavily Jewish Forest Hill-Cedarvale, establishmentarian Deer Park-Casa Loma and Yonge-Eglinton (aka "Young and Eligible").

Arguably a 5th zone might be Oakwood Village in the NW--more "multiethnic" than Hillcrest-Humewood (including Little Jamaica and perhaps some Corso Italia-zone "edge condition") and more of a piece with the adjoining parts of Davenport & Eglinton-Lawrence (and further W, York South-Weston).  Which also makes it the most "Ford Nation" part of the riding (though what that means for Poilievre is TBD--but the Liberalism here has always been more of the "blue-collar populist" variety, and thus vulnerable to leaking in both directions in case the LPC is fatally framed as "elitist")

[Hatman 🍁]

Maude Marquis-Bissonnette has been elected as mayor of Gatineau! Her party is also winning a by-election on city city council (vacated by an Independent who ran for mayor), so that means Action Gatineau will go from 8 to 10 seats, half of the 20 seat council. Their largest seat count ever, even when they previously had the mayor's chair.

It looks like the centre-right vote didn't end up coalescing after all. MMB won by 11 points with 42%, while the four centrist candidates all split the vote.