2024 County Ratings?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Update!

[Tekken_Guy]

Update!

Why is Rice County, MN Lean Trump? He barely won it in 2020 and that’s with student turnout being depressed by the pandemic.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Update!

Why is Rice County, MN Lean Trump? He barely won it in 2020 and that’s with student turnout being depressed by the pandemic.

Biden did poorly in the 2022 primary here only getting 67% (albeit turnout was quite low). I think at the time of making this map the recently bias of the primary is what pushed it to Lean Trump for me.

Another factor is that Northfield's sphere of influence is pretty small and you have the Faribault area (not a college town) being roughly half the county's population, so Northfield's influence isn't absolute.

Dems generally did pretty well here in 2022 though.

Perhaps Lean R was an overreaction to Biden's poor primary performance, but I want to investigate further as to what exactly caused Biden to do poorly here - not tons of ancesteral Dems nor a large Arab population.

[Tekken_Guy]

Update!

Why is Rice County, MN Lean Trump? He barely won it in 2020 and that’s with student turnout being depressed by the pandemic.

Biden did poorly in the 2022 primary here only getting 67% (albeit turnout was quite low). I think at the time of making this map the recently bias of the primary is what pushed it to Lean Trump for me.

Another factor is that Northfield's sphere of influence is pretty small and you have the Faribault area (not a college town) being roughly half the county's population, so Northfield's influence isn't absolute.

Dems generally did pretty well here in 2022 though.

Perhaps Lean R was an overreaction to Biden's poor primary performance, but I want to investigate further as to what exactly caused Biden to do poorly here - not tons of ancesteral Dems nor a large Arab population.

Student protest votes perhaps?

[ProgressiveModerate]

snip

Update!

Why is Rice County, MN Lean Trump? He barely won it in 2020 and that’s with student turnout being depressed by the pandemic.

Biden did poorly in the 2022 primary here only getting 67% (albeit turnout was quite low). I think at the time of making this map the recently bias of the primary is what pushed it to Lean Trump for me.

Another factor is that Northfield's sphere of influence is pretty small and you have the Faribault area (not a college town) being roughly half the county's population, so Northfield's influence isn't absolute.

Dems generally did pretty well here in 2022 though.

Perhaps Lean R was an overreaction to Biden's poor primary performance, but I want to investigate further as to what exactly caused Biden to do poorly here - not tons of ancesteral Dems nor a large Arab population.

Student protest votes perhaps?

Perhaps, but generally Biden has done fine on college campuses and the colleges by themselves are pretty minority of the electorate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another update:

[RI]

Why do you have Pacific County, WA flipping to Biden?

Yeah this was a close one. Ultimately, this seems like a place with an increasing number of Dem-friendly transplants and Murray did pretty well here in 2022 (albeit still lost it by 3). May flip it back to Trump - curious if you have any distinct insights here.

Pacific County was one of only two counties in WA where Trump got more votes in the 2024 primary than the 2020 primary.

[jamestroll]

El Paso County is a strong Likely R.

Douglas County is lean R.

Polis 2022 is NOT a baseline. Like at all. A fiscally moderate Democratic governor who rallied against covid measures and illegal immigration and has no scandals was going to win over a significant number of Republican leaning voters. Even in the GOP leaning of 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why do you have Pacific County, WA flipping to Biden?

Yeah this was a close one. Ultimately, this seems like a place with an increasing number of Dem-friendly transplants and Murray did pretty well here in 2022 (albeit still lost it by 3). May flip it back to Trump - curious if you have any distinct insights here.

Pacific County was one of only two counties in WA where Trump got more votes in the 2024 primary than the 2020 primary.

Interesting - but do you think this has any notable bearing for 2024? Looking at the numbers though, Republican primary turnout was really solid with basically half of Trump 2020 vote total showing up, but Dem primary turnout was alos decent.

[ProgressiveModerate]

El Paso County is a strong Likely R.

Douglas County is lean R.

Polis 2022 is NOT a baseline. Like at all. A fiscally moderate Democratic governor who rallied against covid measures and illegal immigration and has no scandals was going to win over a significant number of Republican leaning voters. Even in the GOP leaning of 2022.

Fair point on Polis, but generally these counties have been zooming left and seem like good demographic fits for Biden 2024, especially Douglas which is 60% college educated, and rapidly seeing growth of D-leaning Denver suburbs into the County. Douglas would be one of the few places of CO I could easily see Biden 2024 outrunning Polis, simillar to how Biden outran Beto 2018 in Collin County.

[Tekken_Guy]

El Paso County is a strong Likely R.

Douglas County is lean R.

Polis 2022 is NOT a baseline. Like at all. A fiscally moderate Democratic governor who rallied against covid measures and illegal immigration and has no scandals was going to win over a significant number of Republican leaning voters. Even in the GOP leaning of 2022.

Fair point on Polis, but generally these counties have been zooming left and seem like good demographic fits for Biden 2024, especially Douglas which is 60% college educated, and rapidly seeing growth of D-leaning Denver suburbs into the County. Douglas would be one of the few places of CO I could easily see Biden 2024 outrunning Polis, simillar to how Biden outran Beto 2018 in Collin County.

Douglas is the fastest-left trending in Colorado and I could easily see Biden winning it even though Polis lost it. Also why CO-04 could be in play by the end of the decade if Boebert is still around.