United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

it would be amazing to see this result come to pass. Not sure it will though. How many candidates does Reform have at this point?

80-100, according to this article. I would assume (as an amateur) a good chunk of these are in Scotland or something though, which I think is mostly a Labour-SNP battle with some safe Conservative seats.

https://inews.co.uk/news/reform-uk-more-80-candidates-short-nigel-farage-3091154

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

it would be amazing to see this result come to pass. Not sure it will though. How many candidates does Reform have at this point?

80-100, according to this article. I would assume (as an amateur) a good chunk of these are in Scotland or something though, which I think is mostly a Labour-SNP battle with some safe Conservative seats.

https://inews.co.uk/news/reform-uk-more-80-candidates-short-nigel-farage-3091154

There hasn't been a 'safe' Tory seat in Scotland in decades.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

it would be amazing to see this result come to pass. Not sure it will though. How many candidates does Reform have at this point?

80-100, according to this article. I would assume (as an amateur) a good chunk of these are in Scotland or something though, which I think is mostly a Labour-SNP battle with some safe Conservative seats.

https://inews.co.uk/news/reform-uk-more-80-candidates-short-nigel-farage-3091154

There hasn't been a 'safe' Tory seat in Scotland in decades.

I guess I got the impression Tories held the South pretty well, since in basically all maps I've seen of this election they hold it.

Anyway, guess Reform's influence might be somewhat smaller with that in mind, although I assume Farage coming back will help them pick some MPs.

[Duke of York]

so such a result is unlikely given they don't have many candidates.

[Compuzled_One]

so such a result is unlikely given they don't have many candidates.

Is missing less than a sixth of candidates, especially since I assume they're mostly in constituencies where they'll be lucky to crack 5%, that bad?

[Pericles]

Given that the SNP vote is crashing and Scotland moves differently to UK-wide trends, if the Tories are left with a few dozen seats I could see some of them being in Scotland. Plus, Labour start way behind in most of these seats so there may still be a tactical unionist vote for the Tories. Those seats don't tend to be historically Labour either unlike the rest of Scotland. The caveat is that most of the majorities are small.

[Harlow]

so such a result is unlikely given they don't have many candidates.

Is missing less than a sixth of candidates, especially since I assume they're mostly in constituencies where they'll be lucky to crack 5%, that bad?

Duke of York originally asked how many candidates Reform have, and you responded with how many they're missing, which I think is where the confusion is stemming from.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

[Compuzled_One]

so such a result is unlikely given they don't have many candidates.

Is missing less than a sixth of candidates, especially since I assume they're mostly in constituencies where they'll be lucky to crack 5%, that bad?

Duke of York originally asked how many candidates Reform have, and you responded with how many they're missing, which I think is where the confusion is stemming from.

Fair point, I suppose.

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

Yeah, that's been the guys goal since Brexit. If YouGov's new poll is accurate (which I doubt), he might damn well do it, or even have Reform replace the Tories.

[Death of a Salesman]

Under the YouGov poll, the Tories would slip to third, with the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition. Farage would narrowly take Clacton, and any further bleeding would quickly destroy the parliamentary Tory Party entirely. The safest Tory seat is East Wiltshire, with a 15% majority. The five they hold in the "worst" case scenario are East Wiltshire, Beaconsfield, North Dorset, South West Hertfordshire, and Windsor.

[Devout Centrist]

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

Ultimately, some of the journalists are fags like Andrew Pierce, which is unfortunate, because the non-bender population of the UK is larger than the outside observer might observe due to the assumption that the UK is populated by roaring poofters (not unreasonable given our governing class). It is actually populated by good old boys, nonetheless, the poofters do predominate. Press F.

Ignore the unusual name homosexual c*** factor.

Beg your pardon?

[Harlow]

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

Ultimately, some of the journalists are fags like Andrew Pierce, which is unfortunate, because the non-bender population of the UK is larger than the outside observer might observe due to the assumption that the UK is populated by roaring poofters (not unreasonable given our governing class). It is actually populated by good old boys, nonetheless, the poofters do predominate. Press F.

Ignore the unusual name homosexual c*** factor.

What is this trash?

[Yelnoc]

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

Ultimately, some of the journalists are fags like Andrew Pierce, which is unfortunate, because the non-bender population of the UK is larger than the outside observer might observe due to the assumption that the UK is populated by roaring poofters (not unreasonable given our governing class). It is actually populated by good old boys, nonetheless, the poofters do predominate. Press F.

Ignore the unusual name homosexual c*** factor.

What is this trash?

Yeah, I don't know. Can we get another British person to translate this?

[MaxQue]

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

Ultimately, some of the journalists are fags like Andrew Pierce, which is unfortunate, because the non-bender population of the UK is larger than the outside observer might observe due to the assumption that the UK is populated by roaring poofters (not unreasonable given our governing class). It is actually populated by good old boys, nonetheless, the poofters do predominate. Press F.

Ignore the unusual name homosexual c*** factor.

What is this trash?

A closet case.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

Ultimately, some of the journalists are fags like Andrew Pierce, which is unfortunate, because the non-bender population of the UK is larger than the outside observer might observe due to the assumption that the UK is populated by roaring poofters (not unreasonable given our governing class). It is actually populated by good old boys, nonetheless, the poofters do predominate. Press F.

Ignore the unusual name homosexual c*** factor.

What is this trash?

A closet case.

His previous comment is also about homosexuals. Seems a tad bit obsessed to me.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

You uh, got something you need to talk about?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

"Respectable" conservative poster posting like a 4chan user, many such cases.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

Ultimately, some of the journalists are fags like Andrew Pierce, which is unfortunate, because the non-bender population of the UK is larger than the outside observer might observe due to the assumption that the UK is populated by roaring poofters (not unreasonable given our governing class). It is actually populated by good old boys, nonetheless, the poofters do predominate. Press F.

Ignore the unusual name homosexual c*** factor.

What is this trash?

It seems likely to be an ill-judged attempt at humor. Or at least that's the hope.

[Compuzled_One]

Stepping aside from that (insanely bigoted) comment and to the YouGov poll, I doubt it holds-as someone else here said, Reform UK has less infrastructure than the Tories. And to be, this growth seems to be to insane to be true. If there's two similar polls (especially with more people), I can see the case for this one being right.

[The Mikado]

How many candidates do the parties still need?

[politicallefty]

These numbers are insane. Be careful what you wish for if Farage gets into Parliament, let alone becoming Leader of the Opposition.

I don't think the Canada 1993 example really applies here though. The SNP rise came about a decade too soon. Canadian Reform was also a Western Canadian concept that pushed into Ontario.

I'm not sure most people here have been alive or have been politically aware the last time an election of this magnitude has happened in an Anglosphere country.

[YL]

How many candidates do the parties still need?

We don't know, exactly. There's no official list until close of nominations, and some parties are better than others at telling us about selections. However:

- Labour have a full slate (excluding Chorley and NI).
- The English and Welsh Greens have 7 constituencies with a "TBC" on their list. At least some of these previously had a named candidate. I don't think the Scottish Greens normally have a full slate.
- The Conservatives don't have a centralised list that I know of, but have 545 candidates listed on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so appear to be short by about 86. (The spreadsheet doesn't include NI, and they won't stand in Chorley, so the target is 631.) But it's possible that some candidates have in fact been selected and they just haven't told anyone.
- The Lib Dems have 559 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, short by 72. I think there are a few selected candidates not on this list.
- Reform UK have 476 candidates on Owain Sutton's spreadsheet, so have some way to go. They do have a webpage with candidate information, but it is rather annoying to use.

[YL]

Douglas Ross (who long ago announced that he would leave Westminster at this election) is replacing David Duguid as Tory candidate, apparently.

[beesley]

I guess I got the impression Tories held the South pretty well, since in basically all maps I've seen of this election they hold it.

Generally the Tories have a higher proportion of seats in the south - however that isn't to say there are fewer Labour targets there. Even if Labour only got one seat over the majority line that would be in part due to a healthy number of gains in Southern towns. And on the current forecasts some Labour and Lib Dem inroads there will be in seats new to their column, even if a few they had won before don't go back to them.

Douglas Ross (who long ago announced that he would leave Westminster at this election) is replacing David Duguid as Tory candidate, apparently.

Unbelievable