What state is more likely to flip? Michigan or North Carolina?

[Fight for Trump]

Michigan, and the longer the conflict in Gaza continues, the more likely it becomes.

[pbrower2a]

Demographics suggest that North Carolina is closer to a D pickup than Michigan is as an R pickup. New voters in all but the most solid R state are about 20% more D than R, and that makes a comparatively young state a potential D state in 2024.  Michigan? The GOP is in tatters. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Demographics suggest that North Carolina is closer to a D pickup than Michigan is as an R pickup. New voters in all but the most solid R state are about 20% more D than R, and that makes a comparatively young state a potential D state in 2024.  Michigan? The GOP is in tatters. 

I def agree with these points, but to be fair, there are also likely to be more Biden 2020 - Trump 2024 voters than Trump 2020 - Biden 2024 voters. The question becomes how do the factors of vote flipping vs new voters/generation turnover weigh against eachother.

[Mr. Smith]

Michigan

How does Trump make up a 155,000+ Vote Gap? Not happening. He even lost Kent County (Grand Rapids) in 2020 which he carried quite decently in 2016.

A uniform 3 point swing. There are far more Biden-Trump voters nationwide than vice versa.

Give up, Trump won't win. Back-to-Back Election losses in the United States of America by Incumbent Presidents are very rare and have required extraordinary Circumstances and they haven't happened since 1976 (when Carter beat Ford) and 1980 (when Reagan beat Carter).

In fact only 4 Incumbent Presidents have been defeated: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1992 and Donald J. Trump in 2020.

Trump is a THREAT to Democracy and the World. Democracy as we know it will cease to exist if Trump wins in 2024.

The Adamses, Van Buren 1840, Pierce 1856 [via convention loss], Hoover 1932, Cleveland 1888, and Harrison 1892...to Cleveland no less.

That's a good point.

Sometimes Presidents are changed like shirts, sometimes they stay forever.

That you had 3 Presidents in a row (Clinton, Bush Jr., Obama) doing 2 full terms was as unusual as none of the Presidents in the 60's and 70's completed 2 terms.

Before them you only had Eisenhower, FDR, and Wilson that did 2 full terms or more, but none of them in a row.

Jefferson -> Madison -> Monroe

[DS0816]

What state is more likely to flip? Michigan or North Carolina?

It depends on which party prevails for U.S. President in 2024.

I sense, in 2024 and going forward, North Carolina will join the Rust Belt trio of bellwether states—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (probable order for Republicans)—with regularly voting for presidential election winners. (Winning party and candidate.)

2024 Scenarios:

U.S. President: Democratic [Hold]
• Democratic holds for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (probable order)
• Democratic pickup for North Carolina

U.S. President: Republican [Pickup]
• Republican hold for North Carolina
• Republican pickups for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan

[Tekken_Guy]

What state is more likely to flip? Michigan or North Carolina?

It depends on which party prevails for U.S. President in 2024.

I sense, in 2024 and going forward, North Carolina will join the Rust Belt trio of bellwether states—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (probable order for Republicans)—with regularly voting for presidential election winners. (Winning party and candidate.)

2024 Scenarios:

U.S. President: Democratic [Hold]
• Democratic holds for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (probable order)
• Democratic pickup for North Carolina

U.S. President: Republican [Pickup]
• Republican hold for North Carolina
• Republican pickups for Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan

You think Trump flips MI before any of AZ/GA/NV?

[EastwoodS]

MI, with a Dem president that has low approvals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The way things are trending, Michigan.

Lol it's 400 days til EDAY

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't think either flip. NC seems to be stuck where it is. Basically a 50/50 state that tilts slightly R. Michigan tilts D but is more likely to elect Democrats than NC. Obama managed to win NC in 2008 but since then, it has floated around 51/49 or closer to the Republicans and not much has changed.

[oldtimer]

Michigan

How does Trump make up a 155,000+ Vote Gap? Not happening. He even lost Kent County (Grand Rapids) in 2020 which he carried quite decently in 2016.

A uniform 3 point swing. There are far more Biden-Trump voters nationwide than vice versa.

Give up, Trump won't win. Back-to-Back Election losses in the United States of America by Incumbent Presidents are very rare and have required extraordinary Circumstances and they haven't happened since 1976 (when Carter beat Ford) and 1980 (when Reagan beat Carter).

In fact only 4 Incumbent Presidents have been defeated: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, George H. W. Bush in 1992 and Donald J. Trump in 2020.

Trump is a THREAT to Democracy and the World. Democracy as we know it will cease to exist if Trump wins in 2024.

The Adamses, Van Buren 1840, Pierce 1856 [via convention loss], Hoover 1932, Cleveland 1888, and Harrison 1892...to Cleveland no less.

That's a good point.

Sometimes Presidents are changed like shirts, sometimes they stay forever.

That you had 3 Presidents in a row (Clinton, Bush Jr., Obama) doing 2 full terms was as unusual as none of the Presidents in the 60's and 70's completed 2 terms.

Before them you only had Eisenhower, FDR, and Wilson that did 2 full terms or more, but none of them in a row.

Jefferson -> Madison -> Monroe

That's how far behind you have to go.