KY-GOV (Emerson): Beshear +16

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Beshear won't win by that much but don't be surprised if he wins. He's taken left wing positions on trans rights and abortion but he's still leading. Why? Because issues don't matter. Just look like Howdy Doodie with an "awe shucks" personality and no one cares.

Or that incumbent governors almost always outperform, especially if they are checked by a legislature controlled by the other party.

[Real Texan Politics]

He ain't winning by that much, let alone by double digits.

But at this point, he seems to have his re-election locked in. Borderline lean/likely D.

[Morning in Atlas]

Man really caused a riot in his own city to get Blanched

[Frodo]

Obvious outlier as far as the margin goes, but he is clearly in the drivers' seat and coasting to a win. It's just going to be a matter of how much he wins by.

Can you imagine if he won by this much though!?

It would be a lonely victory, however -Kentucky is now so Republican I doubt Gov. Beshear would have enough coattails for Democrats in the legislature to (at least) clip GOP supermajorities in either chamber. 

[EastwoodS]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

I really don't think you understand the dynamics of Kentucky politics. We love state Democratic governors, it doesn't correlate to how we vote in federal elections. Most of our governors have been Democratic and we have never even re-elected a Republican before... so a democratic gubernatorial landslide for an incumbent would be pretty standard and historically normal in Kentucky.

[EastwoodS]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

I mean it could just mean a popular governor from an opposite party state wins big like Beebe in 2010 and Baker in 2018

2023 Kentucky is a lot more polarized than 2010 Arkansas or 2018 Massachusetts.

Nope, Kentucky loves Democratic governors, actually. They aren't polarized against Democrats in that regard at all.

[DrScholl]

It will likely be closer than this, but if it actually ends up being a double digits race then Cameron's career is done and he won't be taken seriously as a contender for McConnell's seat. Not because he couldn't win it, but just because the loss of credibility would not make him an appealing primary contender.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Useless since the poll doesn't force people into choosing.

Beshear is only at 49%

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Beshear actually wins by this much, I don't want to hear Riverwalk and co accuse red avatars of "coping" when we question polls that show results like Trump+4 or garbage like that

I mean it could just mean a popular governor from an opposite party state wins big like Beebe in 2010 and Baker in 2018

John
Bel
Edwards
Won
By
Only
3
Points
Despite
Having
Massively
Positive
Favorables

[Dave Hedgehog]

Still a bit skeptical given how heavily Republican the state votes in presidential elections (the margin last time was IIRC slightly greater than Alabama in 2020 where Doug Jones got Blanched despite posting fairly decent approvals during his term) but it's getting to the point where I might move this one to a Lean D race. The Biden factor maybe isn't too much of a drag on Beshear after all.

[Roll Roons]

Still a bit skeptical given how heavily Republican the state votes in presidential elections (the margin last time was IIRC slightly greater than Alabama in 2020 where Doug Jones got Blanched despite posting fairly decent approvals during his term) but it's getting to the point where I might move this one to a Lean D race. The Biden factor maybe isn't too much of a drag on Beshear after all.

State races, especially gubernatorial ones, are often not correlated with federal ones. It also helps that this is an off-year election, while Jones was on the ballot in a presidential year.

[Duke of York]

Obvious outlier as far as the margin goes, but he is clearly in the drivers' seat and coasting to a win. It's just going to be a matter of how much he wins by.

Can you imagine if he won by this much though!?

It would be a lonely victory, however -Kentucky is now so Republican I doubt Gov. Beshear would have enough coattails for Democrats in the legislature to (at least) clip GOP supermajorities in either chamber. 

the legislature is not up this year.

[DaleCooper]

Kentucky isn't really the Republican version of New England and Beshear isn't a Democrat Phil Scott. If he wins by anything more than 5% then I consider that to be a very good sign for Democrats in 2024 and that includes Biden. Under less polarized circumstances, Beshear probably would've beaten Bevin by something like 20 points at least so if he's defeating someone much less hated that has won statewide elections before then I think that's big. If he wins or loses, I'm taking that as a hint towards how 2024 will go. Maybe you have to take it with a grain of salt, but it's still way more concrete and relevant than whatever scattershot polls we get that still include Michelle Obama questions.

[Frodo]

Obvious outlier as far as the margin goes, but he is clearly in the drivers' seat and coasting to a win. It's just going to be a matter of how much he wins by.

Can you imagine if he won by this much though!?

It would be a lonely victory, however -Kentucky is now so Republican I doubt Gov. Beshear would have enough coattails for Democrats in the legislature to (at least) clip GOP supermajorities in either chamber.  

the legislature is not up this year.

'If it were' I should have said.  

[Alben Barkley]

I'm willing to say it now: Likely D!

[Senator Incitatus]

It’s now notable that Trump isn’t getting involved here, even though he nominally endorsed Cameron in the primary. He’ll leave McConnell’s protégé out to dry.

[President Johnson]

It’s now notable that Trump isn’t getting involved here, even though he nominally endorsed Cameron in the primary. He’ll leave McConnell’s protégé out to dry.

He probably doesn't care about Beshear and just thinks the effort isn't worth it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kentucky-2023-poll-beshear-holds-16-point-lead-over-cameron-in-gubernatorial-election/


Gov BESHEAR 49
Cameron 33