More likely in 2024, Democrats win the Presidency or flip the House?

[MT Treasurer]

I think we can all agree that both of those are more likely than Democrats holding the Senate, but what about the Presidency vs. the House?

[TML]

If Democrats win the presidency by a result comparable to the margin in 2000, they probably won’t win either chamber of Congress. Thus, I’d go with winning the Presidency as the more likely option.

[MT Treasurer]

If Democrats win the presidency by a result comparable to the margin in 2000, they probably won’t win either chamber of Congress. Thus, I’d go with winning the Presidency as the more likely option.

I wonder if there’s potential for a reverse 2020 in that you’ll see some Trump/D-for-Congress voters who are done with Biden/think the country was in better shape under Trump but still prefer a check on Trump for obvious reasons.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm going to say flipping the House. Unless Biden is actually losing the popular vote (which isn't going to happen, he can win the popular vote by up to ten points and still lose in the electoral college), it's very likely Democrats will flip the House regardless of who wins the Presidency.

[Spectator]

Biden and House are about equal when you factor in all the likely redraws.

[TML]

If Democrats win the presidency by a result comparable to the margin in 2000, they probably won’t win either chamber of Congress. Thus, I’d go with winning the Presidency as the more likely option.

I wonder if there’s potential for a reverse 2020 in that you’ll see some Trump/D-for-Congress voters who are done with Biden/think the country was in better shape under Trump but still prefer a check on Trump for obvious reasons.

Well, in recent political history (from 1992 onwards), the only time House Democrats ran ahead of the Democratic presidential nominee nationally was in 2008 - in all other election cycles during this era the Democratic presidential nominee did better than House Democrats nationwide.

[BigZuck08]

I'm going to say the House due to the fact that both Alabama and New York's maps are getting redrawn. Alabama's map is going to require a second-majority black congressional district, which, due to blacks being about 93% Dem, will very likely be a Democratic district. Democrats could also gain 6 seats in this new New York map that they will probably gerrymander. Republicans currently have a narrow 4 seat majority, while the Democrats are very likely to gain at least 7 seats. Do the math, and Democrats would gain at least a 3 seat majority.

[Spectator]

I'm going to say the House due to the fact that both Alabama and New York's maps are getting redrawn. Alabama's map is going to require a second-majority black congressional district, which, due to blacks being about 93% Dem, will very likely be a Democratic district. Democrats could also gain 6 seats in this new New York map that they will probably gerrymander. Republicans currently have a narrow 4 seat majority, while the Democrats are very likely to gain at least 7 seats. Do the math, and Democrats would gain at least a 3 seat majority.

You’re forgetting North Carolina and Louisiana redraws, but yes, Democrats probably have a net gain on redistricting alone.

[Vosem]

Very obviously the Presidency; it's not obvious to me that Democrats will have a net gain on redraws at all. Wisconsin isn't likely to get a new map, since the last one was court-drawn, and getting to two-thirds in New York over the objections of Hasidic members/parochial interests/literally just frequent vacancies is very hard. I think NC/OH pretty easily drown out 1-2 extra seats in AL/LA, and the sort of new NY map that's likely to get drawn isn't likely to get Democrats many new seats. (Screwing over Stefanik would be funny, though).

Also, Trump pretty consistently runs a few points behind congressional Republicans. If Trump's winning, it's hard for me to imagine there's not pretty solid GOP gains out of OH/PA/MI even without the new maps in OH.

I'm going to say flipping the House. Unless Biden is actually losing the popular vote (which isn't going to happen, he can win the popular vote by up to ten points and still lose in the electoral college), it's very likely Democrats will flip the House regardless of who wins the Presidency.

Current polling implies about a tie in the PV between Trump and Biden. (Although if you apply 2020 House --> 2022 House trends to 2020 POTUS numbers, you get a huge decline in the efficiency of the Republican vote, where something like D+0.6 might be enough for Biden to win the Presidency. Note that House trends like this are actually a pretty poor predictor of the upcoming presidential trends, though).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both

[Tekken_Guy]

Very obviously the Presidency; it's not obvious to me that Democrats will have a net gain on redraws at all. Wisconsin isn't likely to get a new map, since the last one was court-drawn, and getting to two-thirds in New York over the objections of Hasidic members/parochial interests/literally just frequent vacancies is very hard. I think NC/OH pretty easily drown out 1-2 extra seats in AL/LA, and the sort of new NY map that's likely to get drawn isn't likely to get Democrats many new seats. (Screwing over Stefanik would be funny, though).

Also, Trump pretty consistently runs a few points behind congressional Republicans. If Trump's winning, it's hard for me to imagine there's not pretty solid GOP gains out of OH/PA/MI even without the new maps in OH.

I'm going to say flipping the House. Unless Biden is actually losing the popular vote (which isn't going to happen, he can win the popular vote by up to ten points and still lose in the electoral college), it's very likely Democrats will flip the House regardless of who wins the Presidency.

Current polling implies about a tie in the PV between Trump and Biden. (Although if you apply 2020 House --> 2022 House trends to 2020 POTUS numbers, you get a huge decline in the efficiency of the Republican vote, where something like D+0.6 might be enough for Biden to win the Presidency. Note that House trends like this are actually a pretty poor predictor of the upcoming presidential trends, though).

Is it even clearly there will be a redraw in Ohio? Because there’s always the possibility the map is reinstated by the court, and getting a gerrymander past DeWine and the house speaker won’t be easy.

Also Trump generally runs behind House Republicans in educated suburban areas. In WWC areas he usually runs ahead.

[Mr.Phips]

Very obviously the Presidency; it's not obvious to me that Democrats will have a net gain on redraws at all. Wisconsin isn't likely to get a new map, since the last one was court-drawn, and getting to two-thirds in New York over the objections of Hasidic members/parochial interests/literally just frequent vacancies is very hard. I think NC/OH pretty easily drown out 1-2 extra seats in AL/LA, and the sort of new NY map that's likely to get drawn isn't likely to get Democrats many new seats. (Screwing over Stefanik would be funny, though).

Also, Trump pretty consistently runs a few points behind congressional Republicans. If Trump's winning, it's hard for me to imagine there's not pretty solid GOP gains out of OH/PA/MI even without the new maps in OH.

I'm going to say flipping the House. Unless Biden is actually losing the popular vote (which isn't going to happen, he can win the popular vote by up to ten points and still lose in the electoral college), it's very likely Democrats will flip the House regardless of who wins the Presidency.

Current polling implies about a tie in the PV between Trump and Biden. (Although if you apply 2020 House --> 2022 House trends to 2020 POTUS numbers, you get a huge decline in the efficiency of the Republican vote, where something like D+0.6 might be enough for Biden to win the Presidency. Note that House trends like this are actually a pretty poor predictor of the upcoming presidential trends, though).

Is it even clearly there will be a redraw in Ohio? Because there’s always the possibility the map is reinstated by the court, and getting a gerrymander past DeWine and the house speaker won’t be easy.

Also Trump generally runs behind House Republicans in educated suburban areas. In WWC areas he usually runs ahead.

In 2022, the educated areas generally matched up with the Biden 2020 performance.  I expect these areas to be pretty close to each other in 2024 at the Presidential and congressional levels.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Very obviously the Presidency; it's not obvious to me that Democrats will have a net gain on redraws at all. Wisconsin isn't likely to get a new map, since the last one was court-drawn, and getting to two-thirds in New York over the objections of Hasidic members/parochial interests/literally just frequent vacancies is very hard. I think NC/OH pretty easily drown out 1-2 extra seats in AL/LA, and the sort of new NY map that's likely to get drawn isn't likely to get Democrats many new seats. (Screwing over Stefanik would be funny, though).

Also, Trump pretty consistently runs a few points behind congressional Republicans. If Trump's winning, it's hard for me to imagine there's not pretty solid GOP gains out of OH/PA/MI even without the new maps in OH.

I'm going to say flipping the House. Unless Biden is actually losing the popular vote (which isn't going to happen, he can win the popular vote by up to ten points and still lose in the electoral college), it's very likely Democrats will flip the House regardless of who wins the Presidency.

Current polling implies about a tie in the PV between Trump and Biden. (Although if you apply 2020 House --> 2022 House trends to 2020 POTUS numbers, you get a huge decline in the efficiency of the Republican vote, where something like D+0.6 might be enough for Biden to win the Presidency. Note that House trends like this are actually a pretty poor predictor of the upcoming presidential trends, though).

Is it even clearly there will be a redraw in Ohio? Because there’s always the possibility the map is reinstated by the court, and getting a gerrymander past DeWine and the house speaker won’t be easy.

Also Trump generally runs behind House Republicans in educated suburban areas. In WWC areas he usually runs ahead.

Lol they didn't have a Sen race in 20 and 2016 Hillary was in the ballot and 22 DeWine won by 25 Brown is in very good shape innOH leading by 2' while Biden is only down 6 there is split voting between an R state legislatures and DG or S look how well Presley, Stein, Wilson and Beshesr are doing in R Dominated State legislature and MI, OA andWI do it all the time

[Skill and Chance]

Flipping the House, easily.  Dems already had a modest advantage in 2022.  They could have held the House majority even with a narrow Republican PV win.  Assuming the VRA court decisions in the Deep South stick and that they get to redraw NY to their liking, this advantage will get even larger, possibly as large as the EC advantage Trump had over Biden.

There's also the matter of the Trump coalition not being very efficient at the CD level.  In 2016 and 2020, R's were very dependent on suburban voters scared of what a Clinton or Biden trifecta would do to their 401K balances, but 2022 strongly suggests those voters are gone for good for R's now.  Going from 75% R in 2022 to 85% R in a bunch of counties in North Georgia and Western Pennsylvania or from 15%R to 30% R in downtown Philadelphia or Milwaukee or Detroit helps a great deal in the EC, but it's largely irrelevant for House districts.

IMO, Trump could win the PV by more than Bush 2004 and still end up with a Dem House.

[Zedonathin2020]

About equal, but if I had to choose I would go with the Presidency