Is Anthony D’Esposito DOA in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

While his neighbor to the north gets all the attention, Anthony D’Esposito is also one of the most vulnerable incumbents in congress for 2024. But is he DOA?

[Xing]

Not quite, but he’s definitely a clear underdog against a competent Democrat.

[Roll Roons]

No. The only people that I think will absolutely not be winning another term in 2024 are Manchin and Santos.

D'Esposito will have a very tough race ahead of him, but Long Island Republicans also did very well in 2021 so it's certainly possible that his victory was indicative of a long-term trend and not just a one-off fluke caused by Zeldin's coattails.

[TML]

Remember that back in 2019-2020, the only Democratic House incumbent that was widely considered DOA was Collin Peterson, yet he was far from the only one to be ousted in 2020, mostly because the national environment in 2020 turned out to be less D-leaning than expected. While I agree with the notion that D'Esposito should be considered an underdog, all it takes for him to survive is a national environment that is sufficiently R-leaning (remember that he outperformed the national House PV in 2022 by almost a whole percentage point).

[Tekken_Guy]

Remember that back in 2019-2020, the only Democratic House incumbent that was widely considered DOA was Collin Peterson, yet he was far from the only one to be ousted in 2020, mostly because the national environment in 2020 turned out to be less D-leaning than expected. While I agree with the notion that D'Esposito should be considered an underdog, all it takes for him to survive is a national environment that is sufficiently R-leaning (remember that he outperformed the national House PV in 2022 by almost a whole percentage point).

Peterson wasn’t seen as DOA until Fischbach got in. Even then his race was widely considered a toss-up rather than Lean R.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No, but he's the underdog for re-election.

[Spectator]

Remember that back in 2019-2020, the only Democratic House incumbent that was widely considered DOA was Collin Peterson, yet he was far from the only one to be ousted in 2020, mostly because the national environment in 2020 turned out to be less D-leaning than expected. While I agree with the notion that D'Esposito should be considered an underdog, all it takes for him to survive is a national environment that is sufficiently R-leaning (remember that he outperformed the national House PV in 2022 by almost a whole percentage point).

Peterson wasn’t seen as DOA until Fischbach got in. Even then his race was widely considered a toss-up rather than Lean R.

I think that’s revisionist. Most people had him written off after he won by less in 2018 than he did in 2016.

[Tekken_Guy]

Remember that back in 2019-2020, the only Democratic House incumbent that was widely considered DOA was Collin Peterson, yet he was far from the only one to be ousted in 2020, mostly because the national environment in 2020 turned out to be less D-leaning than expected. While I agree with the notion that D'Esposito should be considered an underdog, all it takes for him to survive is a national environment that is sufficiently R-leaning (remember that he outperformed the national House PV in 2022 by almost a whole percentage point).

Peterson wasn’t seen as DOA until Fischbach got in. Even then his race was widely considered a toss-up rather than Lean R.

I think that’s revisionist. Most people had him written off after he won by less in 2018 than he did in 2016.

Maybe that was how the professional pundits saw the race.

[Atlas Force]

No, but he's the underdog for re-election.

My thoughts basically

[kwabbit]

Remember that back in 2019-2020, the only Democratic House incumbent that was widely considered DOA was Collin Peterson, yet he was far from the only one to be ousted in 2020, mostly because the national environment in 2020 turned out to be less D-leaning than expected. While I agree with the notion that D'Esposito should be considered an underdog, all it takes for him to survive is a national environment that is sufficiently R-leaning (remember that he outperformed the national House PV in 2022 by almost a whole percentage point).

Peterson wasn’t seen as DOA until Fischbach got in. Even then his race was widely considered a toss-up rather than Lean R.

I think that’s revisionist. Most people had him written off after he won by less in 2018 than he did in 2016.

Petersen was seen as the underdog but not a heavy one. The size of Fischbach's victory was surprising.

Right until election night 2020 was looking to be as favorable for the Democrats as 2018 was, so Peterson was not regarded as DOA. Cook's final rating was a tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes he is

[Spectator]

To answer the question, I think we need to see who the challenger is. Someone like Mondaire Jones could blow the race if he moves back to run for it.

[wesmoorenerd]

To answer the question, I think we need to see who the challenger is. Someone like Mondaire Jones could blow the race if he moves back to run for it.

Wrong part of the state

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

To answer the question, I think we need to see who the challenger is. Someone like Mondaire Jones could blow the race if he moves back to run for it.

Mondaire Jones really shouldn’t run for House anywhere in 2024 at this point.  In hindsight, he was clearly going to lose to Lawler if he made it to the GE and would’ve done about as well against SPM in the primary as Biaggi did (SPM is still an a**hole, to be clear).  Jones also would’ve lost to Bowman if he tried to primary him as he had briefly considered doing in 2022.  His last best chance to salvage his political career was his carpetbagging to that Manhattan district and he was largely an afterthought in the primary.  Sometimes politics isn’t fair, but ultimately he was doomed by the district lines.  

It would be a mistake to run him in 2024 against Lawler; we have better potential candidates and he’ll now have carpetbagged to NYC only to carpetbag right back the next election cycle.  It’s a Democratic-leaning district in a Presidential year, but Lawler is a really strong candidate (or at least, he was in 2022; we’ll see what his voting record looks like) and we really shouldn’t take this race for granted or assume we won’t need to run a top-tier/A-list candidate to win.  Plus, regarding the carpetbagging issue, this also isn’t an Andy Levin situation where he ran somewhere that was right next door.  

Ultimately, if Jones wants to run for office, his best bet is to look for an opportunity to run for the state legislature.  I don’t blame him for being pissed and SPM is a selfish jacka**, but I just don’t think he has a good path to Congress at this point, at least not in 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not quite, though this is definitely one of the first seats to flip Democratic on an average election night.