Predict the Virginia General Assembly in the Nov. 2023 Legislative Elections

[Frodo]

State legislative elections are coming up in Virginia where all seats are up for grabs -the first after redistricting -how do you think they will go?  Will Democrats sweep both chambers, reclaiming full control of the General Assembly since they lost the House of Delegates in 2021?

[Spectator]

I want to see how the special election in Kiggans’ old state senate seat go first before I dare make an assessment.

[jamestroll]

I will wait on the results for Kiggan's vacant state senate seat special election.

My guess is that Democrats will narrowly control both chambers with Youngkin's term ending with him extremely popular as he will be seen as a competent figurehead.

if Biden is re-elected, I prefer Spanberger for Governor.

[Skill and Chance]

Have to like Dem odds of at least holding the state senate given what we've seen recently.  The state house could be harder than expected given R overperformance in outer NOVA/outer Richmond.  Kiggans only ran about 3% ahead of Biden so I don't think VA Beach is gone like Dems were worried about after 2021.

[jamestroll]

Have to like Dem odds of at least holding the state senate given what we've seen recently.  The state house could be harder than expected given R overperformance in outer NOVA/outer Richmond.  Kiggans only ran about 3% ahead of Biden so I don't think VA Beach is gone like Dems were worried about after 2021.

Virginia Beach was not going to be gone for Democrats. I do think Democrats will have to campaign there in 2024, specifically Virginia Beach and outer Nova and outer Richmond, to ensure they win.

[LabourJersey]

Very hard to tell this early on. Redistricting has caused a large number of open seats (relatively, at least) so recruitment will be a big element of how the November races pan out.

[Frodo]

I want to see how the special election in Kiggans’ old state senate seat go first before I dare make an assessment.

Now that we have the (albeit unofficial) results of that special election, do you want to venture a guess?

[Duke of York]

I'm going to say Democrats gain the House of Delegates and hold the State Senate.

[Skill and Chance]

I want to see how the special election in Kiggans’ old state senate seat go first before I dare make an assessment.

Now that we have the (albeit unofficial) results of that special election, do you want to venture a guess?

State Senate: 22D/18R
HoD: 50D/50R

What makes this tough is the current SD-07 was a D+0.9% win in a Youngkin +4.3% seat.  Theres a bunch of districts clustered around Youngkin +5 in both chambers, so this fell right on the line between status quo and a very significant Dem win. 

[Mr.Phips]

I want to see how the special election in Kiggans’ old state senate seat go first before I dare make an assessment.

Now that we have the (albeit unofficial) results of that special election, do you want to venture a guess?

Sticking with:

Senate:  22D-18R
HOD:  52D-48R

[Mr.Phips]

I want to see how the special election in Kiggans’ old state senate seat go first before I dare make an assessment.

Now that we have the (albeit unofficial) results of that special election, do you want to venture a guess?

State Senate: 22D/18R
HoD: 50D/50R

What makes this tough is the current SD-07 was a D+0.9% win in a Youngkin +4.3% seat.  Theres a bunch of districts clustered around Youngkin +5 in both chambers, so this fell right on the line between status quo and a very significant Dem win. 

What districts do you have Dems winning in the HOD?  I think Dems get back the Fredericksburg seat and should get back the Petersburg seat as well as one of the Virginia Beach seats they lost in 2021.  A 50/50 chamber would be a pretty good year for Republicans.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that's worth noting is that in 2021, Rs didn't win the HoD because they were able to get massive swings back in most suburbs. It seemed to be moreso because of minority turnout collapsing which hurt them in some parts of rural VA and around Newport Beach area. Another reasons Rs won was due to their gerrymander and the old map being in used; the new map is court drawn and because of population imbalances, seats were pulled into NoVa and Richmond and like 2 Appalachian seats were cut.

Ds should win both chambers, but possibly by smtg underwhelming like 22-18 and 53-47 because of their turnout problems in off-cycles in VA.

[Nyvin]

For HOD-

Democrats should have a near certain flip with HD-55 (the Albemarle seat), the old map just had 1 Charlottesville D vote sink and split the rest of the county up between 3 districts that were safe R.  Turnout shouldn't be a problem there at all.

There's currently 28 D incumbents in NOVA and the new map has 28 NOVA seats that are all at least Biden+26 or higher, so there's pretty much no chance of any of them losing.  They really shored up their seats there big time.  After those 28 seats it drops all the way to a Biden+5 seat. They can flip either HD-22 or HD-31 beyond that though, if it's a good night for Dems.

The 7 D incumbents in the Richmond metro should all be fine too, the seats are drawn much better for them this time, except maybe HD-58 which stayed the same at Biden+16.

I would love it if the Democrats flipped the Lynchburg seat (HD-52),  which is where Liberty University is at.

To me it kinda seems like the Fredericksburg seat and the Hampton Roads area are gonna be key again.  The new map raised the Democrats floor more than anything else really.

One thing that's worth noting is that in 2021, Rs didn't win the HoD because they were able to get massive swings back in most suburbs. It seemed to be moreso because of minority turnout collapsing which hurt them in some parts of rural VA and around Newport Beach area. Another reasons Rs won was due to their gerrymander and the old map being in used; the new map is court drawn and because of population imbalances, seats were pulled into NoVa and Richmond and like 2 Appalachian seats were cut.

Ds should win both chambers, but possibly by smtg underwhelming like 22-18 and 53-47 because of their turnout problems in off-cycles in VA.

That would explain Democrats losing HD-63...wtf, that was awful.

[Skill and Chance]

For HOD-

Democrats should have a near certain flip with HD-55 (the Albemarle seat), the old map just had 1 Charlottesville D vote sink and split the rest of the county up between 3 districts that were safe R.  Turnout shouldn't be a problem there at all.

There's currently 28 D incumbents in NOVA and the new map has 28 NOVA seats that are all at least Biden+26 or higher, so there's pretty much no chance of any of them losing.  They really shored up their seats there big time.  After those 28 seats it drops all the way to a Biden+5 seat. They can flip either HD-22 or HD-31 beyond that though, if it's a good night for Dems.

The 7 D incumbents in the Richmond metro should all be fine too, the seats are drawn much better for them this time, except maybe HD-58 which stayed the same at Biden+16.

I would love it if the Democrats flipped the Lynchburg seat (HD-52),  which is where Liberty University is at.

To me it kinda seems like the Fredericksburg seat and the Hampton Roads area are gonna be key again.  The new map raised the Democrats floor more than anything else really.

One thing that's worth noting is that in 2021, Rs didn't win the HoD because they were able to get massive swings back in most suburbs. It seemed to be moreso because of minority turnout collapsing which hurt them in some parts of rural VA and around Newport Beach area. Another reasons Rs won was due to their gerrymander and the old map being in used; the new map is court drawn and because of population imbalances, seats were pulled into NoVa and Richmond and like 2 Appalachian seats were cut.

Ds should win both chambers, but possibly by smtg underwhelming like 22-18 and 53-47 because of their turnout problems in off-cycles in VA.

That would explain Democrats losing HD-63...wtf, that was awful.

VA Dems haven't been able to break through in Biden +5 seats at all in the off-year elections, so I wouldn't expect much in the way of NOVA gains in the HoD.  Unless the Fredericksburg seat counts as NOVA?  I agree that one will likely flip. 

However, I think the turnout problem in the rural seats is permanent, in part because of people simply moving away and in part because of a significant minority of rural black voters flipping parties (note Youngkin nearly won Charles City, which has basically never voted R and normally goes >60% even for losing statewide Dems).  I also think at least one of the Hispanic Prince William seats could be at risk at the HoD level. 

Regarding the state senate, I am tempted to move it to 23D/17R because there is a new seat just north of SD-07 that Youngkin won by a lesser margin than the current edition of SD-07.  It's also anchored by Williamsburg and has a bunch of upscale historic areas than moved rapidly left since Trump.  I doubt they will win the western/southernmost Hampton Roads/Southside Youngkin +5 seat because of the turnout issues mentioned above.  If they do really well in Fredericksburg, the state senate seat there could also flip, but it's Youngkin +8 so a bit of a stretch unless they pick up a lot more DC commuters/WFH. 


The other possibility is that one of the moderate incumbents drawn into a Youngkin seat makes it through.  However, the 2 seats in question are Youngkin +10 and Youngkin +15, so I doubt it.

Worth noting that the HoD is a clear Dem supermajority if they ever do match Biden, while the State Senate caps out pretty hard at 24D/16R depending on trends/incumbents, but with the 21st Dem very hard to dislodge. 

[Nyvin]

For HOD-

Democrats should have a near certain flip with HD-55 (the Albemarle seat), the old map just had 1 Charlottesville D vote sink and split the rest of the county up between 3 districts that were safe R.  Turnout shouldn't be a problem there at all.

There's currently 28 D incumbents in NOVA and the new map has 28 NOVA seats that are all at least Biden+26 or higher, so there's pretty much no chance of any of them losing.  They really shored up their seats there big time.  After those 28 seats it drops all the way to a Biden+5 seat. They can flip either HD-22 or HD-31 beyond that though, if it's a good night for Dems.

The 7 D incumbents in the Richmond metro should all be fine too, the seats are drawn much better for them this time, except maybe HD-58 which stayed the same at Biden+16.

I would love it if the Democrats flipped the Lynchburg seat (HD-52),  which is where Liberty University is at.

To me it kinda seems like the Fredericksburg seat and the Hampton Roads area are gonna be key again.  The new map raised the Democrats floor more than anything else really.

One thing that's worth noting is that in 2021, Rs didn't win the HoD because they were able to get massive swings back in most suburbs. It seemed to be moreso because of minority turnout collapsing which hurt them in some parts of rural VA and around Newport Beach area. Another reasons Rs won was due to their gerrymander and the old map being in used; the new map is court drawn and because of population imbalances, seats were pulled into NoVa and Richmond and like 2 Appalachian seats were cut.

Ds should win both chambers, but possibly by smtg underwhelming like 22-18 and 53-47 because of their turnout problems in off-cycles in VA.

That would explain Democrats losing HD-63...wtf, that was awful.

VA Dems haven't been able to break through in Biden +5 seats at all in the off-year elections, so I wouldn't expect much in the way of NOVA gains in the HoD.  Unless the Fredericksburg seat counts as NOVA?  I agree that one will likely flip. 

HD-63 is about Biden+35,  it's the Petersburg seat in old map.  No clue why it has an R incumbent right now.

[Skill and Chance]

For HOD-

Democrats should have a near certain flip with HD-55 (the Albemarle seat), the old map just had 1 Charlottesville D vote sink and split the rest of the county up between 3 districts that were safe R.  Turnout shouldn't be a problem there at all.

There's currently 28 D incumbents in NOVA and the new map has 28 NOVA seats that are all at least Biden+26 or higher, so there's pretty much no chance of any of them losing.  They really shored up their seats there big time.  After those 28 seats it drops all the way to a Biden+5 seat. They can flip either HD-22 or HD-31 beyond that though, if it's a good night for Dems.

The 7 D incumbents in the Richmond metro should all be fine too, the seats are drawn much better for them this time, except maybe HD-58 which stayed the same at Biden+16.

I would love it if the Democrats flipped the Lynchburg seat (HD-52),  which is where Liberty University is at.

To me it kinda seems like the Fredericksburg seat and the Hampton Roads area are gonna be key again.  The new map raised the Democrats floor more than anything else really.

One thing that's worth noting is that in 2021, Rs didn't win the HoD because they were able to get massive swings back in most suburbs. It seemed to be moreso because of minority turnout collapsing which hurt them in some parts of rural VA and around Newport Beach area. Another reasons Rs won was due to their gerrymander and the old map being in used; the new map is court drawn and because of population imbalances, seats were pulled into NoVa and Richmond and like 2 Appalachian seats were cut.

Ds should win both chambers, but possibly by smtg underwhelming like 22-18 and 53-47 because of their turnout problems in off-cycles in VA.

That would explain Democrats losing HD-63...wtf, that was awful.

VA Dems haven't been able to break through in Biden +5 seats at all in the off-year elections, so I wouldn't expect much in the way of NOVA gains in the HoD.  Unless the Fredericksburg seat counts as NOVA?  I agree that one will likely flip. 

HD-63 is about Biden+35,  it's the Petersburg seat in old map.  No clue why it has an R incumbent right now.

I think this might be an old map vs. new map issue?  They lost an Obama-Clinton-Biden Southside black opportunity seat on the old map.  It had been gradually drifting R for some time, but I think Biden still won it by 10ish.