Is Dom, Is Good: NSW State Election (March 25)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Onto the NSW Liberal leadership election! Three horse race (behind closed doors) at current, but a deal should be worked out behind closed doors for a unanimous ballot. The most promising candidate arch-moderate Treasurer Matt Kean has ruled himself out so we're left with an odd bunch:

Attorney General Mark Speakman - the moderate choice. as such the favourite, though hes a bit lightweight, bit too nice guy, bit too soft, fairly poor media performer

Sports minister Alister Henskens - a potential unity/compromise candidate. lucked into a preselection, hes factionally nonaligned but vaguely right supportive. very strong parliamentary performer is a major plus, on the assumption itd carry over the media.

Planning minister Anthony Roberts - conservative moron. two decades of experience is a major plus in a very new party room, especially as it brings experience in opposition for 8 years. if chosen he would be a blatant placeholder leader intended to unite the factions, sort out preselections to get more women and eventually hand over to a more electable leader.

The deputyship is even messier as the only western sydney choice left is renowned hard-right moron Tanya Davies of Badgery's Creek. Unclear if the moderates could possibly stomach her, and what their alternative options would be. A plus of opting for Roberts as leader is moderates can pick a sensible deputy and shoot down even sillier hard right choices.

[Epaminondas]

Onto the NSW Liberal leadership election!

Hang on, why are the counts for the last constituencies still stuck at 76% on media outlets? Esp. Ryde and Terrigal.

[JimJamUK]

Hang on, why are the counts for the last constituencies still stuck at 76% on media outlets? Esp. Ryde and Terrigal.

There’s still 1000s of postal votes to count, as well as absents/provisionals to count to 2PP. They will start doing this tomorrow.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hang on, why are the counts for the last constituencies still stuck at 76% on media outlets? Esp. Ryde and Terrigal.

There’s still 1000s of postal votes to count, as well as absents/provisionals to count to 2PP. They will start doing this tomorrow.

Also thanks to our compulsory voting system the count percentage doesn't reach 100%. It's literally just turnout percentage of the total registered electorate.

[CumbrianLefty]

There's a chance the ALP could end up one seat short of a majority - but its also not impossible that a distinctly winnable byelection for them could be in the offing before too long.

(incumbent is an ex-Liberal turned Indy who is in a spot of bother)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Todays counting has firmed up everything except Ryde, which looks like it’ll stay Liberal. If so Parliament is 45 ALP 36 L/NP 12 Crossbench.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah that's a shame - the ALP will certainly feel a bit hard done by given the vote shares.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Ah that's a shame - the ALP will certainly feel a bit hard done by given the vote shares.

It’s really only symbolic, with such a large crossbench being a couple seats short won’t cause issues. A 1 seat majority means even less once they supply the Speaker. And Labor isn’t hard done by from vote shares, you can’t expect a 37% primary to get a majority in NSW regardless of the 2pp!

(If you allocate crossbench seats on 2pp it looks pretty normal. 2019 had 52/48 come to 53/40 in seats. This time ~53/47 will come to ~51/42 in seats.)

[Epaminondas]

(If you allocate crossbench seats on 2pp it looks pretty normal. 2019 had 52/48 come to 53/40 in seats. This time ~53/47 will come to ~51/42 in seats.)

Yes, this is the very definition of hard done.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

(If you allocate crossbench seats on 2pp it looks pretty normal. 2019 had 52/48 come to 53/40 in seats. This time ~53/47 will come to ~51/42 in seats.)

Yes, this is the very definition of hard done.

Not at all lmao. Hard done by is Federal 1998 or the average SA election. Labor’s just where you’d expect a narrow government defeat to be with an anemic primary vote.

[Epaminondas]

Hard done by is Federal 1998 or the average SA election. Labor’s just where you’d expect a narrow government defeat to be with an anemic primary vote.

Simple:
- When the PV loser wins an election, it's a travesty. Like Federal 1998, 1990, 1969, 1961, 1954, 1940.
- When the winner earns a lower share of seats than its 2PP share, they're hard done.

Trying to conflate the two just reveals a lack of belief in fair democratic representation. But given that splits have almost always favoured the Cons, I can see how you'd get to that point.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hard done by is Federal 1998 or the average SA election. Labor’s just where you’d expect a narrow government defeat to be with an anemic primary vote.

Simple:
- When the PV loser wins an election, it's a travesty. Like Federal 1998, 1990, 1969, 1961, 1954, 1940.
- When the winner earns a lower share of seats than its 2PP share, they're hard done.

Trying to conflate the two just reveals a lack of belief in fair democratic representation. But given that splits have almost always favoured the Cons, I can see how you'd get to that point.

… the PV a winner won the election. By a clear and decisive margin. And if you focus solely on 2pp then we can allocate crossbench seats by 2pp! But when you have a giant crossbench (a modern record!) then you need a rather higher 2pp to make up for your anemic primary vote and struggle to defend against independents and greens.

[Cassius]

TPP’s a bit of an artefact of the days when Labour and the Coalition won an overwhelming majority of first preferences and thus ended up in the top two slots in the overwhelming majority of divisions. Given that this is no longer the case (also true at the federal level where, as per my understanding, the big two won less than 70% of first preferences for the first time since the war in 2022, whereas even in 2007 they still won 85% between them), TPP figures don’t mean as much now that there are a lot of seats where a non-traditional party gets to the final two.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

TPP’s a bit of an artefact of the days when Labour and the Coalition won an overwhelming majority of first preferences and thus ended up in the top two slots in the overwhelming majority of divisions. Given that this is no longer the case (also true at the federal level where, as per my understanding, the big two won less than 70% of first preferences for the first time since the war in 2022, whereas even in 2007 they still won 85% between them), TPP figures don’t mean as much now that there are a lot of seats where a non-traditional party gets to the final two.

It’s still relevant in determining who has the better claim of government in a hung parliament scenario, and nicely reminding independents/third party MPs who their voters would rather they side with. Reinforced by what happened to Windsor and Oakeshott.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Simple:
- When the PV loser wins an election, it's a travesty. Like Federal 1998, 1990, 1969, 1961, 1954, 1940.

These are also extremely silly claims that no one makes. National 2pp counting only started in 1984, all numbers prior are rough estimates by the AEC. The 1940 number is somewhat dubious. The Coalition won the primary count by 2%, and as that was the only contemporary result was clearly accepted to have won the election.
Meanwhile the 1954 2pp is completely misleading, due to 6 uncontested coalition seats vs just 1 for Labor. Accounting for these based on past contested results and the Liberals would have certainly won the 2pp.

And regardless this is all very silly because we already have an upper chamber of parliament that is proportionally elected. The lower house is not intended to and will never perfectly represent 2pp. Winning government means actually winning seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In spite of a successful election in the bush, Nationals leader Paul Toole is set to be challenged for the leadership in tomorrows party meeting by Dugald Saunders. God knows why. But the Nationals are remarkably adept at keeping disunity out of the papers. Partially down to their weird internal culture, partially because the media is city centric and doesn’t give a flying fck about bush politics.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Paul Toole won the Nationals leadership ballot. Margin unknown of course, being the Nats. The timetable for the Liberal leadership election is still “up in the air” (ie please hold until the smoke filled room has finished negotiating)

Edit: it’s reported he allegedly won the vote 8-7 with 1 abstention. If true then this issue will definitely come again.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Liberal leadership race is apparently frozen indirectly due to ScoMo! Moderate frontrunner Mark Speakman is member for Cronulla, in Scotty’s electorate of Cook. ScoMo is heavily rumoured to resign soon, and Speakman would be a lock for the pre-selection if he wants it.

So it seems both factions are waiting for ScoMo to confirm he’s resigning, and Speakman to decide whether he wants to transfer Federally. Factional wheeling and dealing can resume once he’s made a decision, as the centre-right would be conceding Cook to the moderates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Final batch of postal votes counted, Ryde has been called for the Liberals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Liberal party room meeting has finally been set for April 21. Speakman looks to be firming up as the clear favourite, Deputy is still undecided.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Final counting has been completed today with the Legislative Council distribution of preferences. Animal Justice's run of good luck the last 3 times has ended, the 7th Liberal hung on to claim the 21st seat. The composition of the next chamber shall be:

Party	Elected 2019	Elected 2023	Total	Change
Labor	(7	8)	15	+1
Liberal/National	(8	7)	15	—2
Greens	(2	2)	4	+1
One Nation	(2	1)	3	+1
Shooters Fishers and Farmers	(1	1)	2	±0
Animal Justice	(1	0)	1	—1
Legalise Cannabis	(0	1)	1	+1
Liberal Democrats	(0	1)	1	+1
Independent ex-Greens	(0	0)	0	—1
Independent ex-Christian Democrats	(0	0)	0	—1

Labor will produce the Council president, leaving them with 14 floor votes, needing 21 votes for majority with no abstentions. The narrow loss makes the upper house a fair bit more hostile for Labor, on a contentious ideological floor vote the likely breakdown is Left 20/Right 21. Minns has refused to negotiate with Mark Latham and One Nation, and the Liberal Democrats MLC is a former Liberal activist and standard nutjob libertarian. That gives 19 pretty ardent anti-Labor MLCs, and leaves Labor dependent on the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers on contentious bills. This may prove challenging.

[JimJamUK]

Final counting has been completed today with the Legislative Council distribution of preferences. Animal Justice's run of good luck the last 3 times has ended, the 7th Liberal hung on to claim the 21st seat.

In retrospect, people should not have assumed Animal Justice would get another great run of preferences. People vote for parties they know. Left wing voters being a lot more likely to preference meant they could do very well on preferences vs minor right wing parties, but this advantage was mostly counteracted this time by their opponent being the LNP which many more right wing voters have actually heard of and consequently preferenced.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Final counting has been completed today with the Legislative Council distribution of preferences. Animal Justice's run of good luck the last 3 times has ended, the 7th Liberal hung on to claim the 21st seat.

In retrospect, people should not have assumed Animal Justice would get another great run of preferences. People vote for parties they know. Left wing voters being a lot more likely to preference meant they could do very well on preferences vs minor right wing parties, but this advantage was mostly counteracted this time by their opponent being the LNP which many more right wing voters have actually heard of and consequently preferenced.

Indeed, in 2019 they were up against Christian Democrats and Liberal Democrats and in 2015 up against No Land Tax.

However due to the… “unique” way NSW counts below the line votes it really wasn’t possible until this weeks check count to accurately know how big the gap Animal Justice had to close with the Coalition actually was. As it happened it was a tad bigger than expected due to the strong postals and weaker BTL rates. That was a big reason why people were assuming they’d make up the gap.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mark Speakman beats Anthony Roberts 22-13 to take the NSW Liberal leadership, rules change has been mooted to allow upper house member Natalie Ward to take the Deputyship.