Which state will vote more to the left in 2024?

[S019]

So, this is a question which has intrigued me for quite some time. Both states have their valid arguments, and it's easy to see both states voting Republican or both voting Democratic, or one voting Democratic and one voting Republican, so...have at it. My guess is Arizona, as I think the bluing of Phoenix should push it more to the left, and I'm not exactly optimistic about the direction of Clark County, in addition to Nevada swinging and trending Republican for three elections in a row.

[TDAS04]

I have to guess Nevada, but I’m not too sure.

[Real Texan Politics]

Nevada most likely, even if both vote republican.

[Xing]

Nevada. I’m sticking by my prediction that there’s not much chance of Republicans improving on Trump’s performance, unless they’re having quite a good night overall.

[un]

Between these two, I'm gonna bet on Nevada. It's been a weird trend for a while now that Hispanic voters tend to turn out more in favor of the incumbent president. They did it with Trump, Bush, Obama, Clinton, etc. I imagine Biden will keep this trend in place, and Hispanic voters are an important demographic in both states, but Arizona is also more red and more dependent on suburban voters, which I imagine swing a bit towards the GOP. Either one could be possible, but if I was a betting man, I'd say Nevada.

[THG]

Nevada most likely, even if both vote republican.

[SN2903]

Nevada most likely, even if both vote republican.

[Non Swing Voter]

Nevada.  2020 was a fluke because of covid and the shutdowns. 

[S019]

Now that we have the 2022 results, I wonder if people have changed their mind.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Arizona, especially post-2022

AZ shifting hard left as NV has shifted modestly right for the past decade is not a fluke or accident. The fact is with the way the coalitions have evolved, there's a lot more upside for Ds in AZ than in NV.

In Arizona, you have significant growth of tech and finance industries in Pheonix, the dominant metro (obv these industries tend to lean left). In Las Vegas though, much more revolves around the Casino industry, and a lot of the development is concentrated in whiter R-leaning suburbs around the city rather than the actual downtown.

Also NV has a relative lack of liberal whites, which is becoming increasingly necessary to Dem wins in most states.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Now that we have the 2022 results, I wonder if people have changed their mind.

Want to say AZ but tbh a lot of the AZ R candidates this year were worse than their NV counterparts. Fairly confident NV has less potential to swing significantly R from 2020 and 2022.

[here2view]

Arizona. My hot take is Arizona is now part of Democrats path of least resistance to victory.

Clinton 2016 map-NV [225]
NE-02 [226]
Michigan [241]
Pennsylvania [260]
Arizona [271]

[seskoog]

Definitely Arizona, but I would have said AZ even before the midterms. NV last voted right of AZ in 1996, and NV was D+1 and AZ D+2, results that are perfectly plausible in two years.