This is an interesting primary.
Marlene Galan-Woods was a former republican, but that in and of itself is not an issue.
Amish Shah supposedly admitted to voting for Trump in 2016 at a public forum, but there is no video to prove it. It could be slander coming from O'Callaghan's campaign, but I don't think so. Seeing as Shah has not come out and denied it.
Andrei Cherny is a lifelong Democrat, but he is not without his baggage.
Conor O'Callaghan seems mostly scandal free, with the exception of his minor sons donating. He does seem a little smug, in my opinion. He has a lot of money and is attacking all his opponents.
Kroemer and Horne are underdogs.
I think the nomination will go to Galan-Woods or O'Callaghan.
Your analysis is largely on point. It will be either of those two. I’ll be voting O’Callaghan, but it’s far likelier it’s Galan Woods. People here a year ago were hyping Cherny and Shah, and I thought they were crazy, lol. You can look back and see some old threads - these were the same people who thought Lake might lose the GOP nomination here for senate…
(FYI Shah allegedly voted for Trump in the 2016 primary, not the general, but that is not why he will lose this race. While he’s performed well in his local races, some elements of the D apparatus and adjacent movement people are not fans of his.)
The primary electorate will be, like, 60% female. Already Galan Woods starts at a distinct advantage from the gender politics of it all. She is the only woman in a six or seven-candidate race. Her biggest weakness is what O’Callaghan is hammering her over: being a lifelong Republican, donating to Jan Brewer, etc. On top of this, she sounds like a Democratic Kari Lake — very rehearsed, at times ridiculous and newscastery. She actually shares a lot of parallels with her as a former media personality and as someone who claims their OG political party left them.
I find her…off-putting. But she fits the mold of the district. Older wealthy socially liberal ex-Republican…
Poll
