Fox WI: Barnes +4

[MillennialModerate]

Doubtful result but this would be one of the sweeter results: showing Johnson’s turn to the extreme Trumpism was not the way to go.

[Person Man]

What if 2022 = 2018 in reverse? i.e. GOP wins the house, Dems GAIN in the Senate? It could happen, folks!

That’s what I’m thinking. Either that, or the Republicans lose completely and we get 10 years of Republicans in disarray despite them basically getting everything the average Republican  wants. Or Republicans turned out to be that much better campaigning and Biden becomes the first modern D president to fully turn over a trifecta in one cycle or we get, most likely, a 1990s/TWW situation where Democrats go into disarray and Biden has his own successful brand.

So there’s an equal likelihood that this becomes 2002, 2018, 1994, or 1894.

[Spectator]

I am absolutely dying at this poll completely wrecking the narrative that Barnes is the "extreme" candidate and it bearing out what many of us have been saying - Barnes is not the one seen as "extreme", it is Johnson.

Also, even if you think this poll is slightly too good for Ds, Barnes being at +13 fav and Johnson being at -6 is... still a huge f'ing gap.

Barnes’ numbers will drop.

[Alben Barkley]

What if 2022 = 2018 in reverse? i.e. GOP wins the house, Dems GAIN in the Senate? It could happen, folks!

That’s what I’m thinking. Either that, or the Republicans lose completely and we get 10 years of Republicans in disarray despite them basically getting everything the average Republican  wants. Or Republicans turned out to be that much better campaigning and Biden becomes the first modern D president to fully turn over a trifecta in one cycle or we get, most likely, a 1990s/TWW situation where Democrats go into disarray and Biden has his own successful brand.

So there’s an equal likelihood that this becomes 2002, 2018, 1994, or 1894.

I do not think there’s an “equal likelihood” of those things. I think 2018 is most likely in that I expect Dems to gain in the Senate and lose the House at this point. Followed by 1994/2002 (about equally likely to have the originally predicted red wave or Dems defy the odds and hold the House too). 1894 is a complete impossibility. And it says little about how the future goes in any case; the result could be like 2018 but Dems still win in 2024 unlike Reps in 2020. Or it could be like 1994 and Biden still goes down in 2024 because he’s unable to build his brand as successfully as Bill Clinton (I see little reason to think he can at this point, unless “Dark Brandon” holds strong maybe lol). Etc. I wouldn’t extrapolate the results of future elections from historical comparisons to this one election is my point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes number wont drip because white females and BLK people vote too not just white people ..the only sub group that votes straight R are white Evangelical men Females and Minorities and non Evangelical white men vote too

If Barnes polls drop too so will Fetterman Tammy Baldwin won WI by 10 pts in WI and beat Tommy Thompson the Fav WI Gov in 2012, no Barnes won't drop if Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson

Tommy Thompson was supposed to beat Tammy Baldwin and he failed miserably

[President Johnson]

It's really hard not to get your hopes up here. Especially since that isn't the first poll showing Barnes ahead and at 50%. He'd probably win today, so the question is whether he can keep it that way until November.

Actually never struck me why Johnson was so strong in the first place. It's a swing state and he's way too the right for that. More acting like the senate from Alabama. But Tammy Baldwin is also pretty progressive.

[Xing]

Actually never struck me why Johnson was so strong in the first place. It's a swing state and he's way too the right for that. More acting like the senate from Alabama. But Tammy Baldwin is also pretty progressive.

Much as I despise Johnson, he is decent at campaigning and framing himself as an “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” To quote one of your political icons, it’s “malarkey”, of course, but he’s good at selling the lie. It was especially effective against Feingold, who was a former Senator and went back on his 2010 promise not to use Super PACs. He’s already trying to do this again, and whether or not it’s successful will definitely depend quite a bit on the national environment and whether or not a portion of those who have an unfavorable opinion of him (this number is higher than it was in 2016) can be swayed, though if Barnes can create the opposite narrative, that certainly helps him as well.

To avoid disappointment, I’m definitely remaining pessimistic for now and assuming that the environment will shift at least a bit toward Republicans before November, though I do think this would be very close if the election were held today, and I wouldn’t take this race for granted if I were a Republican.

[Person Man]

What if 2022 = 2018 in reverse? i.e. GOP wins the house, Dems GAIN in the Senate? It could happen, folks!

That’s what I’m thinking. Either that, or the Republicans lose completely and we get 10 years of Republicans in disarray despite them basically getting everything the average Republican  wants. Or Republicans turned out to be that much better campaigning and Biden becomes the first modern D president to fully turn over a trifecta in one cycle or we get, most likely, a 1990s/TWW situation where Democrats go into disarray and Biden has his own successful brand.

So there’s an equal likelihood that this becomes 2002, 2018, 1994, or 1894.

I do not think there’s an “equal likelihood” of those things. I think 2018 is most likely in that I expect Dems to gain in the Senate and lose the House at this point. Followed by 1994/2002 (about equally likely to have the originally predicted red wave or Dems defy the odds and hold the House too). 1894 is a complete impossibility. And it says little about how the future goes in any case; the result could be like 2018 but Dems still win in 2024 unlike Reps in 2020. Or it could be like 1994 and Biden still goes down in 2024 because he’s unable to build his brand as successfully as Bill Clinton (I see little reason to think he can at this point, unless “Dark Brandon” holds strong maybe lol). Etc. I wouldn’t extrapolate the results of future elections from historical comparisons to this one election is my point.

This time could be different. With polarization being greater, I don't really expect either party to pull up from a worse than expected midterm. The economy will be stable by then, but Biden will be 82 and there's Murphy's Law to consider. I don't think either party can rely on inertia by too much though there is evidence that it would have taken ahold if COVID didn't happen.

By 1894, I meant that we will go from a D to R trifecta in one cycle in the first time since then. 1894 was known for how big of a wave it was, but what can after and before it was even more impressive.

[wbrocks67]

Actually never struck me why Johnson was so strong in the first place. It's a swing state and he's way too the right for that. More acting like the senate from Alabama. But Tammy Baldwin is also pretty progressive.

Much as I despise Johnson, he is decent at campaigning and framing himself as an “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” To quote one of your political icons, it’s “malarkey”, of course, but he’s good at selling the lie. It was especially effective against Feingold, who was a former Senator and went back on his 2010 promise not to use Super PACs. He’s already trying to do this again, and whether or not it’s successful will definitely depend quite a bit on the national environment and whether or not a portion of those who have an unfavorable opinion of him (this number is higher than it was in 2016) can be swayed, though if Barnes can create the opposite narrative, that certainly helps him as well.

To avoid disappointment, I’m definitely remaining pessimistic for now and assuming that the environment will shift at least a bit toward Republicans before November, though I do think this would be very close if the election were held today, and I wouldn’t take this race for granted if I were a Republican.

Eh, that was 2016 or 2010 though. I think people are far too stuck in those years as far as these candidates go. Polarization is already much more different than it was 6 years ago, and now multiple polls have also shown that Johnson is not some titanium force that people think is not only underwater with voters, but that the way he's acted now for the past few years is catching up with him.

[Xing]

Actually never struck me why Johnson was so strong in the first place. It's a swing state and he's way too the right for that. More acting like the senate from Alabama. But Tammy Baldwin is also pretty progressive.

Much as I despise Johnson, he is decent at campaigning and framing himself as an “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” To quote one of your political icons, it’s “malarkey”, of course, but he’s good at selling the lie. It was especially effective against Feingold, who was a former Senator and went back on his 2010 promise not to use Super PACs. He’s already trying to do this again, and whether or not it’s successful will definitely depend quite a bit on the national environment and whether or not a portion of those who have an unfavorable opinion of him (this number is higher than it was in 2016) can be swayed, though if Barnes can create the opposite narrative, that certainly helps him as well.

To avoid disappointment, I’m definitely remaining pessimistic for now and assuming that the environment will shift at least a bit toward Republicans before November, though I do think this would be very close if the election were held today, and I wouldn’t take this race for granted if I were a Republican.

Eh, that was 2016 or 2010 though. I think people are far too stuck in those years as far as these candidates go. Polarization is already much more different than it was 6 years ago, and now multiple polls have also shown that Johnson is not some titanium force that people think is not only underwater with voters, but that the way he's acted now for the past few years is catching up with him.

I hope you’re right, but Barnes definitely needs to create an effective counter argument and keep it going until November if wants to win.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Fox News on 2022-08-16

Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Hindsight was 2020]

Actually never struck me why Johnson was so strong in the first place. It's a swing state and he's way too the right for that. More acting like the senate from Alabama. But Tammy Baldwin is also pretty progressive.

Much as I despise Johnson, he is decent at campaigning and framing himself as an “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” To quote one of your political icons, it’s “malarkey”, of course, but he’s good at selling the lie. It was especially effective against Feingold, who was a former Senator and went back on his 2010 promise not to use Super PACs. He’s already trying to do this again, and whether or not it’s successful will definitely depend quite a bit on the national environment and whether or not a portion of those who have an unfavorable opinion of him (this number is higher than it was in 2016) can be swayed, though if Barnes can create the opposite narrative, that certainly helps him as well.

To avoid disappointment, I’m definitely remaining pessimistic for now and assuming that the environment will shift at least a bit toward Republicans before November, though I do think this would be very close if the election were held today, and I wouldn’t take this race for granted if I were a Republican.

Eh, that was 2016 or 2010 though. I think people are far too stuck in those years as far as these candidates go. Polarization is already much more different than it was 6 years ago, and now multiple polls have also shown that Johnson is not some titanium force that people think is not only underwater with voters, but that the way he's acted now for the past few years is catching up with him.

I hope you’re right, but Barnes definitely needs to create an effective counter argument and keep it going until November if wants to win.

Also “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” is kinda a hard image to sell going for your 3rd term and your opponent is an Washington outsider

[Sir Mohamed]

Actually never struck me why Johnson was so strong in the first place. It's a swing state and he's way too the right for that. More acting like the senate from Alabama. But Tammy Baldwin is also pretty progressive.

Much as I despise Johnson, he is decent at campaigning and framing himself as an “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” To quote one of your political icons, it’s “malarkey”, of course, but he’s good at selling the lie. It was especially effective against Feingold, who was a former Senator and went back on his 2010 promise not to use Super PACs. He’s already trying to do this again, and whether or not it’s successful will definitely depend quite a bit on the national environment and whether or not a portion of those who have an unfavorable opinion of him (this number is higher than it was in 2016) can be swayed, though if Barnes can create the opposite narrative, that certainly helps him as well.

To avoid disappointment, I’m definitely remaining pessimistic for now and assuming that the environment will shift at least a bit toward Republicans before November, though I do think this would be very close if the election were held today, and I wouldn’t take this race for granted if I were a Republican.

Eh, that was 2016 or 2010 though. I think people are far too stuck in those years as far as these candidates go. Polarization is already much more different than it was 6 years ago, and now multiple polls have also shown that Johnson is not some titanium force that people think is not only underwater with voters, but that the way he's acted now for the past few years is catching up with him.

I hope you’re right, but Barnes definitely needs to create an effective counter argument and keep it going until November if wants to win.

Also “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” is kinda a hard image to sell going for your 3rd term and your opponent is an Washington outsider

I was about to write that as well.

Sadly though, perception often more matters than actual being. Trump also convinced tons of the voters he's their voice against the elite while the dude himself was born rich, inherited a fortune and never had to worry about ordinary problems.

[wbrocks67]

Actually never struck me why Johnson was so strong in the first place. It's a swing state and he's way too the right for that. More acting like the senate from Alabama. But Tammy Baldwin is also pretty progressive.

Much as I despise Johnson, he is decent at campaigning and framing himself as an “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” To quote one of your political icons, it’s “malarkey”, of course, but he’s good at selling the lie. It was especially effective against Feingold, who was a former Senator and went back on his 2010 promise not to use Super PACs. He’s already trying to do this again, and whether or not it’s successful will definitely depend quite a bit on the national environment and whether or not a portion of those who have an unfavorable opinion of him (this number is higher than it was in 2016) can be swayed, though if Barnes can create the opposite narrative, that certainly helps him as well.

To avoid disappointment, I’m definitely remaining pessimistic for now and assuming that the environment will shift at least a bit toward Republicans before November, though I do think this would be very close if the election were held today, and I wouldn’t take this race for granted if I were a Republican.

Eh, that was 2016 or 2010 though. I think people are far too stuck in those years as far as these candidates go. Polarization is already much more different than it was 6 years ago, and now multiple polls have also shown that Johnson is not some titanium force that people think is not only underwater with voters, but that the way he's acted now for the past few years is catching up with him.

I hope you’re right, but Barnes definitely needs to create an effective counter argument and keep it going until November if wants to win.

Also “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” is kinda a hard image to sell going for your 3rd term and your opponent is an Washington outsider

I was about to write that as well.

Sadly though, perception often more matters than actual being. Trump also convinced tons of the voters he's their voice against the elite while the dude himself was born rich, inherited a fortune and never had to worry about ordinary problems.

True, but it's also been proven many times now that almost no senator has been able to replicate anything close to Trumps persuasion or hold on voters.

[President Johnson]

Actually never struck me why Johnson was so strong in the first place. It's a swing state and he's way too the right for that. More acting like the senate from Alabama. But Tammy Baldwin is also pretty progressive.

Much as I despise Johnson, he is decent at campaigning and framing himself as an “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” To quote one of your political icons, it’s “malarkey”, of course, but he’s good at selling the lie. It was especially effective against Feingold, who was a former Senator and went back on his 2010 promise not to use Super PACs. He’s already trying to do this again, and whether or not it’s successful will definitely depend quite a bit on the national environment and whether or not a portion of those who have an unfavorable opinion of him (this number is higher than it was in 2016) can be swayed, though if Barnes can create the opposite narrative, that certainly helps him as well.

To avoid disappointment, I’m definitely remaining pessimistic for now and assuming that the environment will shift at least a bit toward Republicans before November, though I do think this would be very close if the election were held today, and I wouldn’t take this race for granted if I were a Republican.

Eh, that was 2016 or 2010 though. I think people are far too stuck in those years as far as these candidates go. Polarization is already much more different than it was 6 years ago, and now multiple polls have also shown that Johnson is not some titanium force that people think is not only underwater with voters, but that the way he's acted now for the past few years is catching up with him.

I hope you’re right, but Barnes definitely needs to create an effective counter argument and keep it going until November if wants to win.

Also “outsider who will fix Washington dysfunction.” is kinda a hard image to sell going for your 3rd term and your opponent is an Washington outsider

I was about to write that as well.

Sadly though, perception often more matters than actual being. Trump also convinced tons of the voters he's their voice against the elite while the dude himself was born rich, inherited a fortune and never had to worry about ordinary problems.

True, but it's also been proven many times now that almost no senator has been able to replicate anything close to Trumps persuasion or hold on voters.

Yeah, and nobody can serious claim to be an outsider after twelve years in Washington and after he already made a two-term pledge he didn't keep. Meanwhile, his opponent never served in Washington and can indeed run as the fresh, new face. He'd be like the second youngest senator after Jon Ossoff anyway?

I still think Johnson is a narrow favorite because of national environment and incumbency advantage. However, we have to see more high-quality polls into the fall.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's really hard not to get your hopes up here. Especially since that isn't the first poll showing Barnes ahead and at 50%. He'd probably win today, so the question is whether he can keep it that way until November.

Actually never struck me why Johnson was so strong in the first place. It's a swing state and he's way too the right for that. More acting like the senate from Alabama. But Tammy Baldwin is also pretty progressive.

Wisconsin is a very evenly divided and polarized state where the republicans are very conservative and democrats are very progressive .

Keep in mind Cruz/Bernie won the primary there in 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fox is clearly an Evangelical network not an R network they have both sides the John Bolton polls had Fetterman, Ryan and Beasley ahead and now Barnes we clearly need wave insurance in case WARNOCK loses OH is now the most likely red state to flip blue because Ron DeSANTIS is more popular than DeWine, Nan W just tied DeWine first poll shows a competetive race, I know users don't believe it but GOV TED STRICKLAND

Ted Strickland lost to Kasich the most popular R Gov and Kasich endorse Biden, Biden and Strickland and Ryan are blue dogs Ryan will be a frontrunner for Prez in 2028 when he beats Vance

Vance is on par as week as Masters, and Oz and Dixon and Mastriano

Rs say we should not raise taxes for Entitlements and Vance has millions to charity, charity is an Entitlement they get Donations