Fox WI: Barnes +4

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/remynuma/status/1560388982965501958
😱

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yep, blue wave

[Minnesota Mike]

Right in line with the Marquette poll. I think it's pretty clear WI Sen is now a tossup and Dems second best pickup opportunity. Also nice to finally see an AZ poll.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I like the lack of undecideds, and Barnes at 50% is encouraging. I'm still betting against this flipping, but it would be very nice if it did.

[Pericles]

So much for strong incumbent Ron Johnson.

[Lief 🗽]

Looking like we’ll get the darkly hilarious outcome of Democrats increasing their senate majority against all odds, but effectively being locked out of the electoral college in 2024 as they lose all swing state governor’s races!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So much for strong incumbent Ron Johnson.

Feingold agrees !

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m fairly sure that the Wisconsin polls will either be accurate or under estimate Johnson, so he needs to keep Barnes in the high 40’s and he should be good. Looks like Johnson will need to either flood the airwaves soon or hope that Biden does something stupid to get more media attention, because this looks real at the moment

[Pericles]

So much for strong incumbent Ron Johnson.

Feingold agrees !

I mean in comparison to other candidates, people are assuming both he and Evers win comfortably and he is semi-safe even if Republicans lose in other swing states. Ron Johnson has some strengths but has gone nutty so if the national environment is decent for Democrats (not counting on that) he could lose.

[Sestak]

Barnes outpolling Evers in both these recent polls is…interesting, to say the least. I’d been somewhat skeptical of him as a candidate, but it seems he’s doing well enough to at least give it a real shot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feingold lost because there were Kill Stein voters that voted for Jill Stein or Gary Johnson and voted for  Ron Johnson that's apples and oranges, 22 is a whole different ballgame, Barnes will win Cook has it Tossups

He doesn't have to change NC, OH, FL to Tossup because Wi and PA solidifies the blue wall he can wait til the end to change the ratings but Steve Konraki has NC, OH, FL as Tossups on the big board

[Devils30]

Media is missing the main story of the past month, it is not the huge Democratic enthusiasm surge but the GOP has completely cratered with independents and moderates. Dems are up 25 with indies and 40 with moderates in these polls.

[TodayJunior]

What if 2022 = 2018 in reverse? i.e. GOP wins the house, Dems GAIN in the Senate? It could happen, folks!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is this really happening? I can't let myself buy into this at face-value. I just can't. But Johnson really should be doing better. I will take this a good sign even if I can't bring myself to believe it's a certainty.

Color me surprised in more ways than one because I had very low expectations for Barnes as a candidate, especially in Wisconsin. But he really might be able to hold his own, even if he still doesn't end up winning. It's probably Johnson who really deserves to be overestimated.

What if 2022 = 2018 in reverse? i.e. GOP wins the house, Dems GAIN in the Senate? It could happen, folks!

I think it's actually looking like a realistic result as of right now. Perhaps this is just how midterms are going to go in these polarized times. Though I don't think the GOP is going to do as well as Democrats did in the House and gubernatorial elections in comparison to the Democrats in 2018.

[Xing]

Please stop it, pollsters, my heart can’t take any more false hope, not in this race. Lean R until I see Barnes leading in a Trump county on November 8th.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1560392175338377216

[S019]

Tossup is a fair assessment here and Barnes will need to actually lead in high quality polls in October for me to change my prediction of Johnson narrowly hanging on.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1560398741760245761

[Gass3268]

Polls were good in Wisconsin in 2018.

https://twitter.com/bdquinn/status/1560414375411941376?s=20&t=-id9-tmoXU-qsA...

[wbrocks67]

I am absolutely dying at this poll completely wrecking the narrative that Barnes is the "extreme" candidate and it bearing out what many of us have been saying - Barnes is not the one seen as "extreme", it is Johnson.

Also, even if you think this poll is slightly too good for Ds, Barnes being at +13 fav and Johnson being at -6 is... still a huge f'ing gap.

[Yoda]

"According to the new @FoxNews
 poll, Blake Masters’ association with Trump is a bigger liability than Mark Kelly’s association with Biden."

This pretty much sums up why Biden's approval rating essentially doesn't matter in these Senate and Gov races; trump's is much worse among democrats and the indies that will be deciding these races. Also a really good explainer of why it's wrong to be dooming this cycle and who so many are willfully blind to the fact the dems have legitimate leads in places like PA, AZ and to a lesser extent WI.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"According to the new @FoxNews
 poll, Blake Masters’ association with Trump is a bigger liability than Mark Kelly’s association with Biden."

This pretty much sums up why Biden's approval rating essentially doesn't matter in these Senate and Gov races; trump's is much worse among democrats and the indies that will be deciding these races. Also a really good explainer of why it's wrong to be dooming this cycle and who so many are willfully blind to the fact the dems have legitimate leads in places like PA, AZ and to a lesser extent WI.

I think it was also mentioned before that while Biden is hated by Republicans, it isn't as aggressive as the hatred of Obama or Hillary. Trump on the other hand stokes that same hatred in Liberals.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

"According to the new @FoxNews
 poll, Blake Masters’ association with Trump is a bigger liability than Mark Kelly’s association with Biden."

This pretty much sums up why Biden's approval rating essentially doesn't matter in these Senate and Gov races; trump's is much worse among democrats and the indies that will be deciding these races. Also a really good explainer of why it's wrong to be dooming this cycle and who so many are willfully blind to the fact the dems have legitimate leads in places like PA, AZ and to a lesser extent WI.

I think it was also mentioned before that while Biden is hated by Republicans, it isn't as aggressive as the hatred of Obama or Hillary. Trump on the other hand stokes that same hatred in Liberals.

Biden isn't hated as an individual, he's hated simply for being a Democrat. It's not personal the way it was with Obama or Hillary.

[kwabbit]

Could be worse for Johnson. Given how other senate polls are going, Barnes +4 is decent.

[Sir Mohamed]

This looks really encouraging, especially with Barnes at 50%. May very well nail his final vote share. That said, I'm keeping my hopes down. Not because this poll and others are flawed since 2016 and 2020 polls were, but more because it's just August 18. Over 2 months to go. If this keeps to October, we may very well see a flip here (though by less than 4 pts., imho).

Reinforces my downgrade from Lean R -> Tilt R.