More likely to flip: CA-27 or CA-45?
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  More likely to flip: CA-27 or CA-45?		 « previous next »
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Question: ?
#1
CA-27		  
#2
CA-45		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 12

Author Topic: More likely to flip: CA-27 or CA-45?  (Read 260 times)
Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« on: December 29, 2021, 11:29:17 PM »
CA-27 lost Simi Valley. CA-45 gained Garden Grove and Westminster, which took a rightward turn in 2020. Which one is more likely to flip?
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GALeftist
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2021, 12:47:08 AM »
Porter is a pretty strong incumbent in a Biden+11 seat. Even in a bad environment I think she could easily win. Garcia needs the environment to be quite bad to win.
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2021, 01:14:09 AM »
Quote from: GALeftist on December 30, 2021, 12:47:08 AM
Porter is a pretty strong incumbent in a Biden+11 seat. Even in a bad environment I think she could easily win. Garcia needs the environment to be quite bad to win.
Steel is the incumbent running in the new CA-45 (Garden Grove and Fullerton).
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2021, 03:33:46 PM »
CA-27, pretty easily.

Quote from: GALeftist on December 30, 2021, 12:47:08 AM
Porter is a pretty strong incumbent in a Biden+11 seat. Even in a bad environment I think she could easily win. Garcia needs the environment to be quite bad to win.

Porter only won by 7 in an equally partisan seat in 2020. There's no reason to expect she'd "easily win" in 2022.
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2021, 04:14:26 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on December 31, 2021, 03:33:46 PM
CA-27, pretty easily.

Quote from: GALeftist on December 30, 2021, 12:47:08 AM
Porter is a pretty strong incumbent in a Biden+11 seat. Even in a bad environment I think she could easily win. Garcia needs the environment to be quite bad to win.

Porter only won by 7 in an equally partisan seat in 2020. There's no reason to expect she'd "easily win" in 2022.
Irvine is now in CA-47. Most of the old CA-45 is in CA-40. Does Steel have a better chance of winning than Garcia?
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beesley
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« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2021, 04:23:34 PM »
CA-27, Garcia is the strong candidate here.
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