Which incumbents would've been reelected?

[Nym90]

Assume Rowland hadn't resigned, and that Murkowski had won the primary.

[adam]

Jeb Bush (vs. Jim Davis in FL)
Mike Huckabee (vs. Mike Beebe in AR)
Tom Vilsack (vs. Jim Nussle in IA)
Dirk Kempthorne (vs. Jerry Brady in ID)
Bill Owens (vs. Bill Ritter in CO)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mitt Romney, absolutely he would of handled Patrick and went on to reelection.  This would of been a 5 pt race, but Romney would have had the distinct advantage. His stance on abortion, against it, but won't ban it is moderate to attract suburbian women voters like he took from O'Brien last time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jeb, Vilsack, Kempthorne and Guinn

[nini2287]

Jeb Bush (vs. Jim Davis in FL)
Mike Huckabee (vs. Mike Beebe in AR)
Tom Vilsack (vs. Jim Nussle in IA)
Dirk Kempthorne (vs. Jerry Brady in ID)
Bill Owens (vs. Bill Ritter in CO)

All those plus Guinn.

[Smash255]

Mitt Romney, absolutely he would of handled Patrick and went on to reelection.  This would of been a 5 pt race, but Romney would have had the distinct advantage. His stance on abortion, against it, but won't ban it is moderate to attract suburbian women voters like he took from O'Brien last time.

A republican Govenor with a -8% Net Approval would have been re-elected in a heavily Democratic state??  Say What??

Romney dropped out for the same reason Pataki did, both knew getting kicked out of office 2 years prior isn't good to have on a Presidential candidates resume

[Gustaf]

Jeb Bush (vs. Jim Davis in FL)
Mike Huckabee (vs. Mike Beebe in AR)
Tom Vilsack (vs. Jim Nussle in IA)
Dirk Kempthorne (vs. Jerry Brady in ID)
Bill Owens (vs. Bill Ritter in CO)

All those plus Guinn.

Exactly how I voted.

[© tweed]

Jeb, Vilsack, Kempthorne, Huckabee, Guinn

[Joel the Attention Whore]

Jeb Bush (vs. Jim Davis in FL)
Mike Huckabee (vs. Mike Beebe in AR)
Tom Vilsack (vs. Jim Nussle in IA)
Dirk Kempthorne (vs. Jerry Brady in ID)
Bill Owens (vs. Bill Ritter in CO)

All those plus Guinn.

[© tweed]

Why does everyone think Owens would have beaten Ritter?  Ritter's going to beat Beauprez by 20 points.

[nclib]

Jeb Bush, Huckabee, Vilsack, Kempthorne, Guinn, Owens.

And although it's not on this list, but Johanns would have of course defeated Hahn in Nebraska.

[Mr. Paleoconservative]

Pataki, Bush, Guinn, Kempthorne, Huckabee, and Owens would have all been re-elected if they had ran (or were able to) again.

[True Democrat]

Bush, Huckabee, Vilsack, Kempthorne, Owens, Guinn

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hahaha, Pataki wouldn't have a prayer against Spitzer.

[Eraserhead]

Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Tom Vilsack, Dirk Kempthorne and Kenny Guinn.

[Eraserhead]

Pataki could have had a shot against Spitzer if he found the cure for Cancer while simultaneously killing Osama bin Laden on live television.

[Nym90]

Jeb Bush, Huckabee, Vilsack, Kempthorne, Guinn, Owens.

And although it's not on this list, but Johanns would have of course defeated Hahn in Nebraska.

Yeah, I just realized I forgot about that one. I was trying to include everyone who won in 2002, even if they weren't still incumbents now, and thus should've included Johanns since I included Rowland.

[Cubby]

In this scenario, has Rowland still had his scandal or is this without that happening?

If the scandal hadn't happened, and he'd run for an unprecedented fourth term, I think Rowland would still win. DeSteffano is not a good candidate (although I'm voting for him). If the scandal had happened and he didn't resign, then a better Democrat would have run against him and he'd almost certainly lose. He would have been in office 12 years. As always we'd pray for Richard Blumenthal to run and he'd decline.

I miss Rowland. Except for the "scandal" (which more Republicans cared about than Democrats) he was a good governor.

[Nym90]

In this scenario, has Rowland still had his scandal or is this without that happening?

If the scandal hadn't happened, and he'd run for an unprecedented fourth term, I think Rowland would still win. DeSteffano is not a good candidate (although I'm voting for him). If the scandal had happened and he didn't resign, then a better Democrat would have run against him and he'd almost certainly lose. He would have been in office 12 years. As always we'd pray for Richard Blumenthal to run and he'd decline.

I miss Rowland. Except for the "scandal" (which more Republicans cared about than Democrats) he was a good governor.

You can assume whatever you'd like as to the scandal.

I envisioned a scenario where it does happen but Destefano is still his opponent, which I realize may be unrealistic.

[dazzleman]

In this scenario, has Rowland still had his scandal or is this without that happening?

If the scandal hadn't happened, and he'd run for an unprecedented fourth term, I think Rowland would still win. DeSteffano is not a good candidate (although I'm voting for him). If the scandal had happened and he didn't resign, then a better Democrat would have run against him and he'd almost certainly lose. He would have been in office 12 years. As always we'd pray for Richard Blumenthal to run and he'd decline.

I miss Rowland. Except for the "scandal" (which more Republicans cared about than Democrats) he was a good governor.

You can assume whatever you'd like as to the scandal.

I envisioned a scenario where it does happen but Destefano is still his opponent, which I realize may be unrealistic.

I think without the scandal, Rowland would have stood a decent chance of being re-elected for a 4th term, since the state weathered the 2001 recession and is now in good shape financially.

If Rowland had looked weak, Blumenthal might have jumped in and beaten him.  If he looked strong, Blumenthal would have done what he did, and Rowland would have ended up beating a poor candidate like DeStefano.

[Cubby]

In this scenario, has Rowland still had his scandal or is this without that happening?

If the scandal hadn't happened, and he'd run for an unprecedented fourth term, I think Rowland would still win. DeSteffano is not a good candidate (although I'm voting for him). If the scandal had happened and he didn't resign, then a better Democrat would have run against him and he'd almost certainly lose. He would have been in office 12 years. As always we'd pray for Richard Blumenthal to run and he'd decline.

I miss Rowland. Except for the "scandal" (which more Republicans cared about than Democrats) he was a good governor.

You can assume whatever you'd like as to the scandal.

I envisioned a scenario where it does happen but Destefano is still his opponent, which I realize may be unrealistic.

I think without the scandal, Rowland would have stood a decent chance of being re-elected for a 4th term, since the state weathered the 2001 recession and is now in good shape financially.

If Rowland had looked weak, Blumenthal might have jumped in and beaten him.  If he looked strong, Blumenthal would have done what he did, and Rowland would have ended up beating a poor candidate like DeStefano.

Yeah that sounds about right. The only question is whether people who supported him in the past would grow tired of him after more than a decade in office. Perhaps Dodd would have left the Senate if Blumenthal hadn't run.