Will Glenn Youngkin be leading the vote count at ANY point of the night?

[Non Swing Voter]

As a reminder, Fairfax county will immediately report its early vote totals, which will skew disproportionately Dem (even for Fairfax)... probably 75-25 or so.  Meaning T-Mac could jump to as much as a 100k lead early on. 

[Chips]

I'd say it's pretty likely.

[Politics Fan]

Even Trump in 2020 lead for I think over an hour on election night. So barring either a massive change in how votes are counted or a unprecedented change in coalitions yes Youngkin will almost certainly lead on election night.

[kwabbit]

I'm guessing it'll go from big TMac lead to about even, with Youngkin taking the lead if he comes close to winning as in person comes in, before the rest of NOVA comes in to decide the election.

[TML]

Remember that on Election Night 2020, Biden overtook Trump in the vote count at around 80% reporting and went on to win by 10%. Thus, the only scenario I can imagine where Youngkin never leads in the vote count is if the final margin is similar to that of VA-SEN 2008.

[wbrocks67]

Well Fairfax is going to count first this time instead of last, so usually we would see Youngkin lead out of the gate, but this time T-Mac will likely lead out of the gate, and then depends if T-Mac is winning by only like 1 (or losing) or winning by like 4-5.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Youngkin will almost certainly will lead sometime in the night. I think kwabbit pretty much sums it up.

[Non Swing Voter]

Even Trump in 2020 lead for I think over an hour on election night. So barring either a massive change in how votes are counted or a unprecedented change in coalitions yes Youngkin will almost certainly lead on election night.

Just to clarify, this is because early votes were counted last in NOVA.  This year early votes are being counted first (right away) so you're probably going to see the opposite.  I'd be surprised if T-Mac isn't leading by more than 100,000 votes early in the night. 

[SnowLabrador]

He'll lead at the end of it, so yes.

[Xing]

Is it just Fairfax, or all of the NOVA counties? If it's just Fairfax, then I could see Youngkin narrowly leading for a brief moment (and Atlas/the media will lose its mind, and assume the Republicans actually won, as they have for 13 years now), but McAuliffe will take the lead against once the rest of the votes are counted.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is it just Fairfax, or all of the NOVA counties? If it's just Fairfax, then I could see Youngkin narrowly leading for a brief moment (and Atlas/the media will lose its mind, and assume the Republicans actually won, as they have for 13 years now), but McAuliffe will take the lead against once the rest of the votes are counted.

It varies by jurisdiction, but they all seem to be mindful of 2020 and are trying to get early votes counted early in the night.  For instance, this is Loudoun's procedure:

Loudoun County general registrar Judy Brown, for example, wrote in an email she anticipated that her jurisdiction would report “early voting numbers first followed by election day votes followed by mail ballots,” allowing for the possibility that mail ballots are reported in the same window as Election Day votes. She wrote that her expectation for when the county’s results are mostly reported would be no later than 9 p.m., two hours after polls close, “if all goes well.”

[GregTheGreat657]

Towards the beginning of the night on 11/3/2020, Trump was up by 32 in Virginia with 1% in, yet most MSM outlets called it for Biden then, instead of after he took the lead, so Youngkin is very likely to start the election broadcasts with a large lead

[TML]

Towards the beginning of the night on 11/3/2020, Trump was up by 32 in Virginia with 1% in, yet most MSM outlets called it for Biden then, instead of after he took the lead, so Youngkin is very likely to start the election broadcasts with a large lead

The reason why this state was called for Biden upon poll closing was because exit polls had Biden with a lead outside the margin of error.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yep because Youngkin is going to win.

[Non Swing Voter]

Towards the beginning of the night on 11/3/2020, Trump was up by 32 in Virginia with 1% in, yet most MSM outlets called it for Biden then, instead of after he took the lead, so Youngkin is very likely to start the election broadcasts with a large lead

the votes are being counted in a different order this year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As much as I have been dooming today, and stand by it: he will lead early in the night and it won't necessarily say much about the race. If he leads very late into the night, the worst has indeed happened.

[Non Swing Voter]

As much as I have been dooming today, and stand by it: he will lead early in the night and it won't necessarily say much about the race. If he leads very late into the night, the worst has indeed happened.

why?  Fairfax is going to dump 200,000 or so votes as soon as the polls close.

[sg0508]

Of course - rural VA always comes in early and thus, the GOP candidate leads early in practically every race. Then once northern VA comes in, that's it.

[Non Swing Voter]

Of course - rural VA always comes in early and thus, the GOP candidate leads early in practically every race. Then once northern VA comes in, that's it.

again, Fairfax is dumping all its early vote when the polls close...