Funeral for the Democratic Party of Virginia

[Duke of York]

Isn't Youngkin running a quasi-single-issue campaign on anxieties/prejudices/whatever you want to call them related to education policy ("CRT", the Bathroom Question, etc.)? If so, and if he wins, I'll take it as confirmation of my sinking feeling that the "cultural left" has badly misjudged where the country is on this stuff and most American parents are, in the end, just not very punk rock when it comes to what they mean when they ask the question "is our children learning?".

He's running a Gillespie 2.0 campaign.  Yes it's 100% based on racism, xenophobia, homophobia, poor rural white people who are mad at the UMC, etc. etc.  A campaign of rage.  Essentially the Trump/MS-13 playbook of 2017 with new racist/homophobic issues inserted.  But he's also trying to pretend he's a moderate who will cut your taxes.  He's going to "cut taxes" and also "increase spending for law enforcement."  He's going to "unite all Virginians" while running a campaign dividing them on CRT.  He's trying to get out his army of deplorable while appealing to NOVA moderates.  It won't work.  He's acting like the state is full of low income, low information resentful voters from Montana not like he's running in a diverse state that doesn't want this level of divisiveness. 

I very much hope your correct.

[Non Swing Voter]

Isn't Youngkin running a quasi-single-issue campaign on anxieties/prejudices/whatever you want to call them related to education policy ("CRT", the Bathroom Question, etc.)? If so, and if he wins, I'll take it as confirmation of my sinking feeling that the "cultural left" has badly misjudged where the country is on this stuff and most American parents are, in the end, just not very punk rock when it comes to what they mean when they ask the question "is our children learning?".

He's running a Gillespie 2.0 campaign.  Yes it's 100% based on racism, xenophobia, homophobia, poor rural white people who are mad at the UMC, etc. etc.  A campaign of rage.  Essentially the Trump/MS-13 playbook of 2017 with new racist/homophobic issues inserted.  But he's also trying to pretend he's a moderate who will cut your taxes.  He's going to "cut taxes" and also "increase spending for law enforcement."  He's going to "unite all Virginians" while running a campaign dividing them on CRT.  He's trying to get out his army of deplorable while appealing to NOVA moderates.  It won't work.  He's acting like the state is full of low income, low information resentful voters from Montana not like he's running in a diverse state that doesn't want this level of divisiveness. 

I very much hope your correct.

About it backfiring... for sure.  Now I can't promise the margin will be identical to 2017 because Youngkin has pumped a lot more money than even I thought he would.  I think he just loaned himself several million more.  He's flooded the TV stations but I really wonder if he has a turnout operation with that money.  Also, obviously Biden has very low approvals.  But I think this backfires the same way it did in 2017.  Youngkin's not going to get great numbers out of VA and the intensity might just drive up turnout, which he can't have. 

For Youngkin to win he needs to win most swing voters + NOVA/Richmond need low turnout + he needs to win the VA Beach area + he needs massive turnout in SWVA.

We know from early voting that NOVA/Richmond are not going to have low turnout.  So he needs the other 3 elements to fall in place and one of them needs to deliver BIG.  Like he needs utterly astonishing turnout in rural VA or he needs not just a win but a solid win in the VA Beach area. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really hate this website sometimes...

just sometimes?

Maybe I'm being a little generous.

[PSOL]

Virginia Democrats are incredibly anti-Union and are composed of terribly insufferable suburbanites. It’s destruction as a relevant force would free up wiggling room to allow better progressive forces to take control of some power that they can continue to build once a realignment happens in their favor, just like in Ohio or neighboring West Virginia.

I can’t wait for a governor Youngkin!
Ok, you all are seriously freaking out over nothing. In the event of Youngkin winning. Just as in California, Democrats can either immediately impeach him or work to get him recalled no sweat.

[SevenEleven]

Isn't Youngkin running a quasi-single-issue campaign on anxieties/prejudices/whatever you want to call them related to education policy ("CRT", the Bathroom Question, etc.)? If so, and if he wins, I'll take it as confirmation of my sinking feeling that the "cultural left" has badly misjudged where the country is on this stuff and most American parents are, in the end, just not very punk rock when it comes to what they mean when they ask the question "is our children learning?".

He's running a Gillespie 2.0 campaign.  Yes it's 100% based on racism, xenophobia, homophobia, poor rural white people who are mad at the UMC, etc. etc.  A campaign of rage.  Essentially the Trump/MS-13 playbook of 2017 with new racist/homophobic issues inserted.  But he's also trying to pretend he's a moderate who will cut your taxes.  He's going to "cut taxes" and also "increase spending for law enforcement."  He's going to "unite all Virginians" while running a campaign dividing them on CRT.  He's trying to get out his army of deplorable while appealing to NOVA moderates.  It won't work.  He's acting like the state is full of low income, low information resentful voters from Montana not like he's running in a diverse state that doesn't want this level of divisiveness.  

republicanplaybook.exe

[Woody]

They have been looking very vulnerable recently. They messed up with redistricting, they lost tons of winnable state senate races in 19', and now their top sleazebag, Terrance, is struggling, along with the HoD.

I guess that's what happens when local Republicans actually run a competent campaign.

Yep, they lost so many winnable senate races in 2019 that they ended up flipping the chamber

They picked up two in high D-leaning districts, there were half of dozen winnable races that they blew, giving them only a 21-19 majority.

[Non Swing Voter]

They have been looking very vulnerable recently. They messed up with redistricting, they lost tons of winnable state senate races in 19', and now their top sleazebag, Terrance, is struggling, along with the HoD.

I guess that's what happens when local Republicans actually run a competent campaign.

Yep, they lost so many winnable senate races in 2019 that they ended up flipping the chamber

They picked up two in high D-leaning districts, there were half of dozen winnable races that they blew, giving them only a 21-19 majority.

A lot of those losses were razor thin margins.

[Woody]

They have been looking very vulnerable recently. They messed up with redistricting, they lost tons of winnable state senate races in 19', and now their top sleazebag, Terrance, is struggling, along with the HoD.

I guess that's what happens when local Republicans actually run a competent campaign.

Yep, they lost so many winnable senate races in 2019 that they ended up flipping the chamber

They picked up two in high D-leaning districts, there were half of dozen winnable races that they blew, giving them only a 21-19 majority.

A lot of those losses were razor thin margins.

I know. Literally every race that went under 5% or razor thin broke for Republicans, that's not normal. The only semi-competitive race VA Dems won was against Higgins in Northern Virginia. If I remember correctly they won it by eight points, the same margin Clinton won it by in 16'.

[Non Swing Voter]

They have been looking very vulnerable recently. They messed up with redistricting, they lost tons of winnable state senate races in 19', and now their top sleazebag, Terrance, is struggling, along with the HoD.

I guess that's what happens when local Republicans actually run a competent campaign.

Yep, they lost so many winnable senate races in 2019 that they ended up flipping the chamber

They picked up two in high D-leaning districts, there were half of dozen winnable races that they blew, giving them only a 21-19 majority.

A lot of those losses were razor thin margins.

I know. Literally every race that went under 5% or razor thin broke for Republicans, that's not normal. The only semi-competitive race VA Dems won was against Higgins in Northern Virginia. If I remember correctly they won it by eight points, the same margin Clinton won it by in 16'.

What can I tell you, gerrymandering works.

[Woody]

They have been looking very vulnerable recently. They messed up with redistricting, they lost tons of winnable state senate races in 19', and now their top sleazebag, Terrance, is struggling, along with the HoD.

I guess that's what happens when local Republicans actually run a competent campaign.

Yep, they lost so many winnable senate races in 2019 that they ended up flipping the chamber

They picked up two in high D-leaning districts, there were half of dozen winnable races that they blew, giving them only a 21-19 majority.

A lot of those losses were razor thin margins.

I know. Literally every race that went under 5% or razor thin broke for Republicans, that's not normal. The only semi-competitive race VA Dems won was against Higgins in Northern Virginia. If I remember correctly they won it by eight points, the same margin Clinton won it by in 16'.

What can I tell you, gerrymandering works.

In the past that excuse would have worked. Two of those districts went for Clinton, and the three others went for Trump (one of which went to Northam in 17') by narrow margins in either 16' or 20' which should have been possible to win in an off-year election.

VA Dems are just complacent after the last decade.

HoD went somewhat well for them though.

[Mr. Smith]

Tell me, how well did Dems expand in Kentucky after Bevin washed out?

[Non Swing Voter]

Tell me, how well did Dems expand in Kentucky after Bevin washed out?