What my (actual) final prediction was for the CA recall, and my reaction to my miss

[THG]

Since all the usual suspects love bumping my thread from earlier this month:

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

It's still horribly wrong and the worst polling error I've made since I started getting into this in 2017, but far more accurate than that one thread everyone tries to bump to mock me. Just FYI.

Also, to copy and paste my argument from another thread:


I would possibly wait until every last ballot (including the in person ones) is accounted for before the mockery begins. So that'd be in October when the final certification happens.

My logic? Trump was losing California by either 40 or 36 (can't remember) on November the 4th, and Young Kim and David Valadao were also losing their races respectively.

This is before late VBM's and mail in ballots were counted.

Trump ended up narrowing the gap to "only" 29 as did Kim and Valadao, and California infamously takes ridiculously long to count.

Of course, I could be wrong yet again, but I have to defend myself on some capacity. I will be conservative and state that the margin (when it's said and done) is closer to like 61-39 or 60-40. Maybe it even cracks 40% if God feels sorry for me after my prediction.

[DrScholl]

There would have to be a huge amount of outstanding Republican ballots left for the Yes vote to break 39-40% and that just doesn't seem possible the way the updates are going.

[THG]

There would have to be a huge amount of outstanding Republican ballots left for the Yes vote to break 39-40% and that just doesn't seem possible the way the updates are going.

We'll see. I'm merely basing this assumption off of 2020 after Republicans narrowed the gap when the outstanding and in person votes were counted, but I of course realize this election could be very different from that.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

You couldn't just post this in your original thread instead of trying even more to be the next SirWoodbury?

[Non Swing Voter]

This is rich.  Since 2017.  Sure.  You've been posting for a couple months.  This was your first big prediction (that you were adamant about and went into lengthy rationale over) and it was an epic fail.  The fact that you adjusted the numbers to something closer to actual polling data the day before the election does not change that.  If I hadn't preserved it would you have deleted the thread altogether?

[Non Swing Voter]

Since all the usual suspects love bumping my thread from earlier this month:

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.

It's still horribly wrong and the worst polling error I've made since I started getting into this in 2017, but far more accurate than that one thread everyone tries to bump to mock me. Just FYI.

Also, to copy and paste my argument from another thread:


I would possibly wait until every last ballot (including the in person ones) is accounted for before the mockery begins. So that'd be in October when the final certification happens.

My logic? Trump was losing California by either 40 or 36 (can't remember) on November the 4th, and Young Kim and David Valadao were also losing their races respectively.

This is before late VBM's and mail in ballots were counted.

Trump ended up narrowing the gap to "only" 29 as did Kim and Valadao, and California infamously takes ridiculously long to count.

Of course, I could be wrong yet again, but I have to defend myself on some capacity. I will be conservative and state that the margin (when it's said and done) is closer to like 61-39 or 60-40. Maybe it even cracks 40% if God feels sorry for me after my prediction.

Also preserving this one as more results are coming in (and don't match the above).