Rate Duval County for Rubio vs Demings

[Donald Wilders]

I think even though more Dem voters are moving to Duval, independents will be mad enough at Joe and Kamala to vote R enough to make it an >R+1 win

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I think even though more Dem voters are moving to Duval, independents will be mad enough at Joe and Kamala to vote R enough to make it an >R+1 win

Based on what?

Biden carried it by almost 4, and I expect Rubio to do worse than Trump and ex-cop Demmings to do better than Biden in a culturally southern city like Jacksonville, even if Rubio is outrunning Trump overall. Plus, I expect Demmings to be putting allot of effort into AA turnout which would disproportionately help her northern Florida vs. the baseline Biden-Trump numbers.

[Devils30]

I think even though more Dem voters are moving to Duval, independents will be mad enough at Joe and Kamala to vote R enough to make it an >R+1 win

Based on what?

Biden carried it by almost 4, and I expect Rubio to do worse than Trump and ex-cop Demmings to do better than Biden in a culturally southern city like Jacksonville, even if Rubio is outrunning Trump overall. Plus, I expect Demmings to be putting allot of effort into AA turnout which would disproportionately help her northern Florida vs. the baseline Biden-Trump numbers.

Yeah, Demings to have any chance will need to ditch the traditional Florida Dems playbook and target votes differently. Forget getting Hillary margins in S. Fla, assume Rubio holds Dade to within 10 and try to regain a little ground in Broward, Palm Beach but the real thing she needs are numbers like 30+ in Orange, 8-10 in Seminole, Duval and 11-12% in Hillsborough along with cutting the GOP numbers a bit in Pasco, Polk, Volusia. It isn't terribly likely but it's her only chance.

[Donald Wilders]

I think even though more Dem voters are moving to Duval, independents will be mad enough at Joe and Kamala to vote R enough to make it an >R+1 win

Based on what?

Biden carried it by almost 4, and I expect Rubio to do worse than Trump and ex-cop Demmings to do better than Biden in a culturally southern city like Jacksonville, even if Rubio is outrunning Trump overall. Plus, I expect Demmings to be putting allot of effort into AA turnout which would disproportionately help her northern Florida vs. the baseline Biden-Trump numbers.

Unpopular policies and bad economy and authoritarianism towards their political opposition , also it has been demonstrated in polling that there are even more people now who acknowledge the 2020 election steal compared to last November. When the AZ audit and other audits finish that will boost the numbers even higher.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I think even though more Dem voters are moving to Duval, independents will be mad enough at Joe and Kamala to vote R enough to make it an >R+1 win

Based on what?

Biden carried it by almost 4, and I expect Rubio to do worse than Trump and ex-cop Demmings to do better than Biden in a culturally southern city like Jacksonville, even if Rubio is outrunning Trump overall. Plus, I expect Demmings to be putting allot of effort into AA turnout which would disproportionately help her northern Florida vs. the baseline Biden-Trump numbers.

Unpopular policies and bad economy and authoritarianism towards their political opposition , also it has been demonstrated in polling that there are even more people now who acknowledge the 2020 election steal compared to last November. When the AZ audit and other audits finish that will boost the numbers even higher.

So independents will become Fox News bots. Got it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race will take shape next yr, this isnt WI and PA, a wave development happens in the same yr of the Election not the yr prior, that happened in 2018 we won 33 Seats in 2018 not yr prior but Rubio is only up 5

[Devils30]

I think even though more Dem voters are moving to Duval, independents will be mad enough at Joe and Kamala to vote R enough to make it an >R+1 win

Based on what?

Biden carried it by almost 4, and I expect Rubio to do worse than Trump and ex-cop Demmings to do better than Biden in a culturally southern city like Jacksonville, even if Rubio is outrunning Trump overall. Plus, I expect Demmings to be putting allot of effort into AA turnout which would disproportionately help her northern Florida vs. the baseline Biden-Trump numbers.

Unpopular policies and bad economy and authoritarianism towards their political opposition , also it has been demonstrated in polling that there are even more people now who acknowledge the 2020 election steal compared to last November. When the AZ audit and other audits finish that will boost the numbers even higher.

If you think these "audits" will actually help the GOP in 2022, I would like to know what drug you are on.

[Donald Wilders]

I think even though more Dem voters are moving to Duval, independents will be mad enough at Joe and Kamala to vote R enough to make it an >R+1 win

Based on what?

Biden carried it by almost 4, and I expect Rubio to do worse than Trump and ex-cop Demmings to do better than Biden in a culturally southern city like Jacksonville, even if Rubio is outrunning Trump overall. Plus, I expect Demmings to be putting allot of effort into AA turnout which would disproportionately help her northern Florida vs. the baseline Biden-Trump numbers.

Unpopular policies and bad economy and authoritarianism towards their political opposition , also it has been demonstrated in polling that there are even more people now who acknowledge the 2020 election steal compared to last November. When the AZ audit and other audits finish that will boost the numbers even higher.

If you think these "audits" will actually help the GOP in 2022, I would like to know what drug you are on.

I do not take any drug type pills but I do take vitamin D, multivitamin, zinc, Magnesium, L Theanine, Inositol as supplements if you are curious but I do not think they contribute to my political views. I read and watch with a truly open mind, that is how you develop the political views I have.

[Devils30]

I think even though more Dem voters are moving to Duval, independents will be mad enough at Joe and Kamala to vote R enough to make it an >R+1 win

Based on what?

Biden carried it by almost 4, and I expect Rubio to do worse than Trump and ex-cop Demmings to do better than Biden in a culturally southern city like Jacksonville, even if Rubio is outrunning Trump overall. Plus, I expect Demmings to be putting allot of effort into AA turnout which would disproportionately help her northern Florida vs. the baseline Biden-Trump numbers.

Unpopular policies and bad economy and authoritarianism towards their political opposition , also it has been demonstrated in polling that there are even more people now who acknowledge the 2020 election steal compared to last November. When the AZ audit and other audits finish that will boost the numbers even higher.

If you think these "audits" will actually help the GOP in 2022, I would like to know what drug you are on.

I do not take any drug type pills but I do take vitamin D, multivitamin, zinc, Magnesium, L Theanine, Inositol as supplements if you are curious but I do not think they contribute to my political views. I read and watch with a truly open mind, that is how you develop the political views I have.

The "audit" is a GOP led effort with no adherence to auditing standards. I'm sorry but it's not anything legitimate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can't we just wait until next spring before we assume this race is safe R, waves don't develop a yr prior to Election and Red State Rs aren't gonna get scrutinized like in blue state Rs states until it get ls close to Election

It's safe R for now, but not for Long

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think Rubio sweeps Duval, Pinellas, and Seminole and has a very solid shot at Hillsborough and Miami-Dade.  I'd even give him an extremely outside chance at Palm Beach.

[Calthrina950]

In a Rubio vs. Demings race, I wouldn't be surprised if we see the exact same county map that we saw between Biden and Trump last year, except with the margins shifted. I'm going to be "bold" and predict that Demings will win Duval County, that she will hold Seminole County and Hillsborough County, and that she will win Miami-Dade County, although the margin will be within single digits and she may do worse than Biden. Rubio might flip Pinellas County, and he could make some gains in Broward, Osceola, and Palm Beach Counties, although I expect for all of those to remain safely Democratic (although Osceola could potentially be a single-digit margin).

[ElectionsGuy]

I think even though more Dem voters are moving to Duval, independents will be mad enough at Joe and Kamala to vote R enough to make it an >R+1 win

Based on what?

Biden carried it by almost 4, and I expect Rubio to do worse than Trump and ex-cop Demmings to do better than Biden in a culturally southern city like Jacksonville, even if Rubio is outrunning Trump overall. Plus, I expect Demmings to be putting allot of effort into AA turnout which would disproportionately help her northern Florida vs. the baseline Biden-Trump numbers.

There's very little reason to expect Rubio to do worse than Trump in a city like Jacksonville, but he will almost certainly do worse than his 2016 performance even with a larger statewide margin.

[Donerail]

I think Rubio sweeps Duval, Pinellas, and Seminole and has a very solid shot at Hillsborough and Miami-Dade.  I'd even give him an extremely outside chance at Palm Beach.

no

[THG]

Rubio won Duval by 16 and a half whole percentage points in 2016.

While I am fully privy to the fact that Duval is one of the very few parts of Florida that has legitimately trended left, I am still of the belief that Rubio will easily win this county, particularly in a hypothetical red wave year.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think Rubio sweeps Duval, Pinellas, and Seminole and has a very solid shot at Hillsborough and Miami-Dade.  I'd even give him an extremely outside chance at Palm Beach.

If that happens (though I can see Miami-Dade County going red; it's got a lot of Cubans and has trended rightward, so in a potential GOP wave year they could win it, especially with Rubio), I don't know about the nation, but Florida Democrats will definitely need Jesus Christ.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think Rubio sweeps Duval, Pinellas, and Seminole and has a very solid shot at Hillsborough and Miami-Dade.  I'd even give him an extremely outside chance at Palm Beach.

If that happens (though I can see Miami-Dade County going red; it's got a lot of Cubans and has trended rightward, so in a potential GOP wave year they could win it, especially with Rubio), I don't know about the nation, but Florida Democrats will definitely need Jesus Christ.

Dade County gubernatorial results by year:

Year	Dem	Rep	Margin
2018	59.94%	39.00%	20.95 pp
2014	58.44%	39.32%	19.12 pp
2010	56.29%	42.00%	14.29 pp
2006	53.32%	45.30%	8.02 pp
2002	46.47%	52.96%	6.50 pp
1998	47.51%	52.49%	4.99 pp
1994	52.04%	47.96%	4.09 pp
1990	62.69%	37.31%	25.37 pp
1986	49.28%	50.72%	1.43 pp

I'm not seeing any rightward trend here; what I am seeing is four consecutive elections where Democratic performance improved from the previous election. Are you basing your statement entirely on the results of the 2020 presidential election?

[Schiff for Senate]

I think Rubio sweeps Duval, Pinellas, and Seminole and has a very solid shot at Hillsborough and Miami-Dade.  I'd even give him an extremely outside chance at Palm Beach.

If that happens (though I can see Miami-Dade County going red; it's got a lot of Cubans and has trended rightward, so in a potential GOP wave year they could win it, especially with Rubio), I don't know about the nation, but Florida Democrats will definitely need Jesus Christ.

Dade County gubernatorial results by year:

Year	Dem	Rep	Margin
2018	59.94%	39.00%	20.95 pp
2014	58.44%	39.32%	19.12 pp
2010	56.29%	42.00%	14.29 pp
2006	53.32%	45.30%	8.02 pp
2002	46.47%	52.96%	6.50 pp
1998	47.51%	52.49%	4.99 pp
1994	52.04%	47.96%	4.09 pp
1990	62.69%	37.31%	25.37 pp
1986	49.28%	50.72%	1.43 pp

I'm not seeing any rightward trend here; what I am seeing is four consecutive elections where Democratic performance improved from the previous election. Are you basing your statement entirely on the results of the 2020 presidential election?

Not entirely. It's also based on the fact that Rubio being Cuban may give him an advantage, and add to that the fact that 2022 may well be a good GOP year, and that might put Rubio over the edge in Miami-Dade in 2022. Murphy beat Rubio by far less than the margins in your table; he won by just 11.3%. While the 'just' seems unwarranted, you need to remember Trump lost Miami-Dade by even less, and I imagine some Murphy/Trump voters will switch to Rubio. In addition he already likely has some Cuban Biden voters, which he should largely retain, and he'll likely do better overall given the expected red wave year. Perhaps outright victory is unlikely, but it's plausible, and a plurality victory for Demings is a serious possibility.

[AGA]

It will probably be a close R win since Rubio will win by a large margin statewide. There is a decent change it goes D, though.

[Greedo punched first]

It will probably be a close R win since Rubio will win by a large margin statewide. There is a decent change it goes D, though.

Possibly a narrow win for Rubio where he narrowly loses Jacksonville (like Trump in 2016)?

[GregTheGreat657]

Rubio is a popular incumbent running in a red wave year. Biden won the county by 4. The county would likely be tilt R not accounting for Rubio's popularity and likely R accounting for it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It will get close but Rubio by 5 pta

[Minnesota Mike]

Rubio is a popular incumbent running in a red wave year. Biden won the county by 4. The county would likely be tilt R not accounting for Rubio's popularity and likely R accounting for it.

But is it a given 2022 is a red wave year? I know history yada yada yada but as they say past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns. The biggest difference between this midterm and previous ones is the former guy inserting himself front and center. I don't think we have ever had a midterm where a defeated one term President played a major role. Of course history could repeat and we do get a red wave but that is far from certain at this point IMHO.