Bill Nelson vs. Rick Scott in 2020

[Tekken_Guy]

How would Bill Nelson’s senate race vs. Rick Scott have played out if it was held in 2020 instead of 2018?

[Meatball Ron]

Well, I would like to think that if Nelson had actually put in a modicum of effort, he'd have won reelection in 2018 and could have won in 2020.

Nelson outran Obama by 12 points in 2012, so even accounting for the fact that Scott is a much stronger candidate than Mack, there's no reason to really believe he couldn't have outrun Biden by a measly 4 points (one third of his 2012 over-performance) with a proper campaign effort. Any changes to the state's partisan lean between 2012 and 2020 aren't relevant, b/c we are talking about relative performance, not absolute performance.

Obviously if Nelson campaigns the same way in this hypothetical 2020 race that he did in 2018, then he loses to Scott, likely by more than he did in 2018 given the shift in national environment.

[Karenthecomputer]

Scott would have done even better. Perhaps he wins by 1-2%.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Nelson could win by as much as 6 points in 2020 against Rick Scott if he put in the effort, but most likely, he still loses by still being lazy.

[Skill and Chance]

Non-controversial Scott win, maybe Nelson does 1% better than Biden.

[SnowLabrador]

Scott wins.

[Calthrina950]

Scott wins, for sure. Nelson would outperform Biden, but not by enough to win. I think Scott would have won by around 1-2%. Nelson's defeat in 2018 remains one of the most perplexing and frustrating political results of recent years.

[President Johnson]

Scott +2

[TDAS04]

Scott wins by more than he did in 2018.