Which would surprise you more?

[Chips]

I'd say #1 probably. Both of these could happen if the GOP is having a very good year though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Considering Minnesota in 2020 voted more than 5 points left of WI, PA and almost 5 left of MI, and that MN has an incumbent Democrat (PA doesn't) who's relatively reasonable, I'm going with #1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs aren't winning none of them

[Continential]

I can't see the GOP winning Minnesota unless there is a massive Republican landslide in any election for the foreseeable future.

[Non Swing Voter]

Minnesota.  Mostly because I could actually see this state trending Democrat for a while.  States with big bustling metros are trending Democrat generally.  Minnesota is one of the few states in that region to fit that mold (Minneapolis metro)...  So I bet you'd see a lot of more liberal voters in the area congregate there.

[Calthrina950]

I can't see the GOP winning Minnesota unless there is a massive Republican landslide in any election for the foreseeable future.

As is well known, Minnesota has not gone Republican in a presidential election in almost 50 years. I wonder if Minnesota could match the losing streaks that Democrats experienced in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and ironically, Minnesota itself, from the 1850s to the 1930s. Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 was the first Democrat ever to win Minnesota and the first to win Michigan since 1852, and in 1936 he was the first to win Pennsylvania since 1856.