2008: Dick Cheney vs. Hillary Clinton vs. Others

[DownWithTheLeft]

Ok, sounds weird but this is how it plays out:

The Bush administration decides that their policies are beginning to work, and VP Dick Cheney, whose health has vastly improved, makes a run at the Whitehouse.  Cheney is heavily opposed in the primaries by Guilliani, McCain, and Hagel, but they split moderate votes and Cheney narrowly wins.  Cheney, hoping to balance out the ticket, chooses moderate Republican, Olympia Snowe.  Snowe accepts the nomination because she says it she wants to see the GOP keep the Whitehouse.

The Democrats wasted no time and easily nominated Hillary Clinton.  Clinton chooses PA Governor Ed Rendell as her running mate, which virtually destroys her chances in the south.

Angered that Cheney will carry on the Bush guest-worker policy and not be tough on illegal immigration, Tom Tancredo announces he will seek the presidency as a member of the newly formed Minutemen party.  He selects Minutemen founder Jim Gilchrest as his running mate.

Greatly angered by Hillary's continued pro-war stance, anti-war Senator Russ Feingold announces he will seek the nomination as a member of the newly formed Peace Party.  He announces that his running mate will be fellow anti-war activist Ned Lamont.

Feeling that the anger may be one issue and both these sides are extremely radical, Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry announces he will also seek the nomination is an Independent.  He decides to pick Republican HI Gov. Linda Lingle as his running mate.

Finally, still angered the choice of candidates feeling the Republicans need a moderate voice, Rep. Chris Shays enters the race as a member of the Reform Party and chooses Arlen Specter as his running mate.

The race breaks down like this:

Cheney/Snowe 179 EV 24%
Clinton/Rendell 124 EV 20%
Henry/Lingle 100 EV 25%
Feingold/Lamont 67 EV 14%
Tancredo/Gilchrest 46 EV 11%
Shays/Specter 19 EV 5%
Others 1%

Care to comment?

[Lincoln Republican]

This election proves to be devastating for the two major parties. 

Voters are resentful of Cheney for what they believe to be his aggressive stance on the war front, and are looking for more conciliatory leadership.  Cheney is confined to rock solid solid states in the west and south. 

Voters at the same time are distrustful of Clinton and suspicious of her motives for wanting to be President.  Clinton sees her Presidential aspirations dashed with a dismal showing, winning only her home state, and two other dependably reliable Democratic states, plus, of course, DC.

Because of the vote split, the third parties make stunning gains in the election.

Shays and Specter dominate the northeast and extend their influence to the border states.

Feingold and Lamont are very successful in the midwest, in particular the upper midwest, and in part of the west coast.

Tancredo and Gilchrist succeed in three states close to the Mexico border, with their message of protecting the borders.

It was the ticket of Henry and Lingle, however, that, by far, captured the hearts and minds of the electorate, with their message of unity and renewal for America.  Their campaign succeeded in all parts of the nation, with the exception of the northeast.

America decides it is time to strive to unite the America and work on ending the bitter divisions that have plagued the nation for decades, and Brad Henry becomes the nation's new President, and Linda Lingle becomes the nation's first female Vice President.

Henry/Lingle, Independent (Green)                          291
Feingold/Lamont, Peace Party (Pink)                          69
Shays/Specter, Reform Party (Light Blue)                   67
Clinton/Rendell, Democrat (Red)                                 50
Cheney/Snowe, Republican (Blue)                              41
Tancredo/Gilchrist, Minutemen Party (Light Green)     20         

[Mr. Morden]

If DWDL's scenario were to actually happen, I would imagine that there would be some sort of negotiations between two or more of the campaigns to strike a compromise in the electoral college, rather than let the contest be thrown to the House....especially if it looked like the House vote was foreordained.  For example, if the GOP controlled a majority of the House delegations, and it looked like they were all going to vote along party lines (thus delivering the election to Cheney), then the Henry campaign (who won the popular vote), would enter into negotiations with Clinton and Feingold to win the support of their electors, in exchange for Cabinet posts or policy concessions or some such thing.  If Clinton and Feingold strongly prefer Henry to Cheney (which is probably a given) then they would have an incentive to strike such a deal.  Cheney might also make some kind of offer to Henry, in order to sabotage any deal he might make with Clinton and Feingold.

In fact, I think there's a good chance of something like this happening in any scenario where there's no majority winner in the electoral college, and it's strongly suspected that the House vote will be along party lines.  If the House vote is seen as being up in the air, however, then each of the candidates might prefer to take their chances in the House rather than strike a deal in the E.C.

[MarkWarner08]

Ok, sounds weird but this is how it plays out:

The Bush administration decides that their policies are beginning to work, and VP Dick Cheney, whose health has vastly improved, makes a run at the Whitehouse.  Cheney is heavily opposed in the primaries by Guilliani, McCain, and Hagel, but they split moderate votes and Cheney narrowly wins.  Cheney, hoping to balance out the ticket, chooses moderate Republican, Olympia Snowe.  Snowe accepts the nomination because she says it she wants to see the GOP keep the Whitehouse.

The Democrats wasted no time and easily nominated Hillary Clinton.  Clinton chooses PA Governor Ed Rendell as her running mate, which virtually destroys her chances in the south.

Angered that Cheney will carry on the Bush guest-worker policy and not be tough on illegal immigration, Tom Tancredo announces he will seek the presidency as a member of the newly formed Minutemen party.  He selects Minutemen founder Jim Gilchrest as his running mate.

Greatly angered by Hillary's continued pro-war stance, anti-war Senator Russ Feingold announces he will seek the nomination as a member of the newly formed Peace Party.  He announces that his running mate will be fellow anti-war activist Ned Lamont.

Feeling that the anger may be one issue and both these sides are extremely radical, Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry announces he will also seek the nomination is an Independent.  He decides to pick Republican HI Gov. Linda Lingle as his running mate.

Finally, still angered the choice of candidates feeling the Republicans need a moderate voice, Rep. Chris Shays enters the race as a member of the Reform Party and chooses Arlen Specter as his running mate.

The race breaks down like this:

Cheney/Snowe 179 EV 24%
Clinton/Rendell 124 EV 20%
Henry/Lingle 100 EV 25%
Feingold/Lamont 67 EV 14%
Tancredo/Gilchrest 46 EV 11%
Shays/Specter 19 EV 5%
Others 1%

Care to comment?

Clinton/Rendell would in enough of the NE and the NW to win the election.

[DownWithTheLeft]

What states exactly, they already have the biggies in NY and CA.

[MasterJedi]

I'd vote for Tancredo.

[DWPerry]

Tancredo/Gilchrist have my vote!! And they would more than likely run under the Constitution Party banner, since Gilchrist is already in the CP and the CP has automatic ballot acces in several states.

[Colin]

Ok, sounds weird but this is how it plays out:

The Bush administration decides that their policies are beginning to work, and VP Dick Cheney, whose health has vastly improved, makes a run at the Whitehouse.  Cheney is heavily opposed in the primaries by Guilliani, McCain, and Hagel, but they split moderate votes and Cheney narrowly wins.  Cheney, hoping to balance out the ticket, chooses moderate Republican, Olympia Snowe.  Snowe accepts the nomination because she says it she wants to see the GOP keep the Whitehouse.

The Democrats wasted no time and easily nominated Hillary Clinton.  Clinton chooses PA Governor Ed Rendell as her running mate, which virtually destroys her chances in the south.

Angered that Cheney will carry on the Bush guest-worker policy and not be tough on illegal immigration, Tom Tancredo announces he will seek the presidency as a member of the newly formed Minutemen party.  He selects Minutemen founder Jim Gilchrest as his running mate.

Greatly angered by Hillary's continued pro-war stance, anti-war Senator Russ Feingold announces he will seek the nomination as a member of the newly formed Peace Party.  He announces that his running mate will be fellow anti-war activist Ned Lamont.

Feeling that the anger may be one issue and both these sides are extremely radical, Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry announces he will also seek the nomination is an Independent.  He decides to pick Republican HI Gov. Linda Lingle as his running mate.

Finally, still angered the choice of candidates feeling the Republicans need a moderate voice, Rep. Chris Shays enters the race as a member of the Reform Party and chooses Arlen Specter as his running mate.

The race breaks down like this:

Cheney/Snowe 179 EV 24%
Clinton/Rendell 124 EV 20%
Henry/Lingle 100 EV 25%
Feingold/Lamont 67 EV 14%
Tancredo/Gilchrest 46 EV 11%
Shays/Specter 19 EV 5%
Others 1%

Care to comment?

Clinton/Rendell would in enough of the NE and the NW to win the election.

Not with Feingold taking away the left and Henry taking away the populist Dems. There is no way anyone actually wins this election if all seemingly have a good chance of getting some electoral votes. The House vote would be insane since I doubt many Republicans would put their weight behind an unpopular and hated Cheney. Shays could easily control all of the Northeastern Republicans in the House and Henry the rural Conservative Democrats. The rest of the Democratic Party would be split between Feingold and Hillary and the Republican right would further split into Cheney and Tancredo backers.

It is quite possible, especially with Lingle being Henry's VP, that Shays/Henry supporters could support one another and either have a Henry/Specter or Shays/Lingle presidency. I really couldn't see Cheney making any deals since he really doesn't have anyone to deal with. Tancredo is too crazy and Shays is too moderate to accept any overtures from Cheney. Hillary and Feingold could easily team up as well in some sort of coalition in order to get one of them into the White House however I doubt they would be able to get a true majority, which is needed, since the Democrats don't have a majority to begin with and Henry would sap some Conservative and Rural Representatives away from Hillary/Feingold.

In the end the most likely option is a President Shays since he would be much more preferrable to the Cheney camp and would be acceptable to Henry's followers, if only marginally so. Tancredo would be off in the political wilderness the entire time so he will be a non-entity and, as I said above, the Democrats, if we use current House standing since I can't really predict the outcome of the 2006 Midterms, wouldn't hold the majority of state delegations necessary to elect a Democrat in the House.

[Keystone Phil]

It's between Cheney and Brad Henry for me.

[Nym90]

Keep in mind that if the election went into the House, only the top three candidates in the Electoral Vote would be still alive in the race. So in DWDL's scenario, the House would vote between Cheney, Clinton, and Henry only, while in Winfield's, it would be between just Henry, Feingold, and Shays.

Of course, there is the possibility that deals could be cut before the Electoral College even votes to try to influence who the top three are.

It would certainly be a fascinating election to see 6 candidates get electoral votes, but I highly doubt it will ever happen.

[Colin]

Keep in mind that if the election went into the House, only the top three candidates in the Electoral Vote would be still alive in the race. So in DWDL's scenario, the House would vote between Cheney, Clinton, and Henry only, while in Winfield's, it would be between just Henry, Feingold, and Shays.

Of course, there is the possibility that deals could be cut before the Electoral College even votes to try to influence who the top three are.

It would certainly be a fascinating election to see 6 candidates get electoral votes, but I highly doubt it will ever happen.

I completely forgot about the top three rule when I was writing my whole things. So then that would seriously depended on who does well.

I have to agree with you that a 6-way race where every candidate wins a few EVs would be really interesting and I hope it actually does happen one day.

[MODU]

Since Dick said he wouldn't run, this poll is a bit unrealistic.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Since Dick said he wouldn't run, this poll is a bit unrealistic.

And so has Al Gore, believe me under the right circumstances he might reneg, though I admit it is very unlikely