Will Wisconsin turn into another Ohio/Missouri?

[Minnesota Mike]

Wisconsin is about 85% percent white, it's in the Upper Midwest, the state voted for Trump once in 2016, will it eventually turn into a Ohio or Missouri?

The whole "XXX state has a lot of white people it should be trending Republican" is lazy analysis. Nationwide according to Exit Polls the white vote if anything trended slightly Democratic between 2016 and 2020. Biden easily won the vote in Wisconsin and nationwide of those under the age 50 which to me is a better indicator of where the future trends are headed.   

[Annatar]

Depends on whether non-college whites keep moving Republican over time in WI, under the current alignment they likely will eventually turning WI into a pretty republican state but realignments can happen and trends that have gone on for some time can abruptly end, impossible to predict these things as real life events and choices by political candidates do matter.

If you just look at the AP 2020 exit polls, non college whites were 54% of voters in MO and they voted for Trump by 36%, in Ohio they were 55% of voters and voted for Trump by 29%, you can see the difference already, although non-college whites in Ohio will likely continue to trend Republican and vote like non college whites in MO in 2024 or 2028.

In WI, non college whites were 58% of voters, a higher proportion than either Ohio or Missouri and they voted for Trump by a 11% margin.

If non college whites go from voting Republican by 11% to even 20%, that would shift the margin in the state by just over 5% in favour of the Republicans turning WI into a fairly republican state. If they become like non college whites in Ohio which is possible since non college whites were only voting Republican by 11% in Ohio a few election cycles ago, Republicans would win WI by 10%.

[redjohn]

No, it will not. Dane is growing fast, and the Milwaukee suburbs are trending Democratic and that trend will almost certainly outlast the Trump era. The leftward trends in suburban areas and Democratic dominance in urban areas are nearly perfectly balanced by the pro-GOP trends in smaller cities and rural areas. WI will probably be competitive for a while just based on these trends, delivering Democratic wins when a D candidate wins nationwide, and Republican wins when an R candidate wins nationwide.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Contrary to the assertions of a few others, nobody is suggesting that WI is going to turn into Missouri/Indiana, lol.  It could potentially be an Ohio in the sense that it's an R tilting swing state.

WI went from a roughly D+2 state in 2012 to an R+2.9 state in 2016 to R+4.1 in 2020, and Biden had the most rust belt appeal of any potential Democratic nominee.  It's rightward trend is slowing, but it hasn't stopped and I would expect it to be solidly lean GOP in 2028 (3-4 points right of tipping point), similar to North Carolina or Florida now.  

The WOW counties are trending blue to be sure, but it's a far slower swing than in Philly or Maricopa, and it's still an ancestrally GOP area that isn't seeing massive population growth like Atlanta or Phoenix.  This is why I've become more bullish on RoJo keeping his senate seat recently.  Plus, Biden still received a decent amount of support in the ancestrally Dem rurals particularly the driftless, where the Democrats are on borrowed time.  And the state is less college educated, less urban and less nonwhite than average.