Will Wisconsin turn into another Ohio/Missouri?

[Suburbia]

Wisconsin is about 85% percent white, it's in the Upper Midwest, the state voted for Trump once in 2016, will it eventually turn into a Ohio or Missouri?

[DC Guy]

Maybe

Wisconsin will eventually get out of reach for Democrats

But unlike Ohio/Missouri, it has a strong progressive tradation. And its more centralized with its big city, Milwakee. And it has plenty of small bedroom communities for Chicago like Kenosha and Recenne

[BrewCityLiberal]

No. It's simply an R's wet dream that it will. I'm surprised the R avatars still think it will trend the way of Ohio or Missouri given the fact that Biden carried the state in 2020. People who think like this tend to not even be from WI, so they don't truly know what the state is like culturally.

The state is just as competitive as it was 16 years ago (Kerry won it by 0.4 points while Biden won it by 0.6 points). Confounding trends are why the state will continue to be competitive. Dane leads the state in population growth every year and is a Democratic powerhouse, producing higher margins for the Dems every election cycle. I think the state will continue to trend R relative to the nation, but based on the inroads the Dems have made in Milwaukee, WOW, and Dane County (Madison), the most it can become is lean R at the statewide level, even if the rurals start voting like Ohio and Missouri (which is doubtful). WI is also less religious than the two and, as someone else mentioned, has a progressive tradition. I just can't see it getting as R as OH and MO. It may eventually trend more R at the statewide level, but maybe by 1 point and nothing beyond that.  The state will always be in reach for Democrats, in my opinion. However, as of 2021, I think the state will  continue to be a swing state like PA and have confounding trends (i.e. D inroads in Milwaukee/WOW/Dane and R inroads in rural Wisconsin and other smaller industrial cities) that cancel each other out.

[Suburbia]

No. It's simply an R's wet dream that it will. I'm surprised the R avatars still think it will trend the way of Ohio or Missouri given the fact that Biden carried the state in 2020. People who think like this tend to not even be from WI, so they don't truly know what the state is like culturally.

The state is just as competitive as it was 16 years ago (Kerry won it by 0.4 points while Biden won it by 0.6 points). Confounding trends are why the state will continue to be competitive. Dane leads the state in population growth every year and is a Democratic powerhouse, producing higher margins for the Dems every election cycle. I think the state will continue to trend R relative to the nation, but based on the inroads the Dems have made in Milwaukee, WOW, and Dane County (Madison), the most it can become is lean R at the statewide level, even if the rurals start voting like Ohio and Missouri (which is doubtful). WI is also less religious than the two and, as someone else mentioned, has a progressive tradition. I just can't see it getting as R as OH and MO. It may eventually trend more R at the statewide level, but maybe by 1 point and nothing beyond that.  The state will always be in reach for Democrats, in my opinion. However, as of 2021, I think the state will  continue to be a swing state like PA and have confounding trends (i.e. D inroads in Milwaukee/WOW/Dane and R inroads in rural Wisconsin and other smaller industrial cities) that cancel each other out.

Wisconsin is a white state, shouldn't it be trending R?

[BrewCityLiberal]

No. It's simply an R's wet dream that it will. I'm surprised the R avatars still think it will trend the way of Ohio or Missouri given the fact that Biden carried the state in 2020. People who think like this tend to not even be from WI, so they don't truly know what the state is like culturally.

The state is just as competitive as it was 16 years ago (Kerry won it by 0.4 points while Biden won it by 0.6 points). Confounding trends are why the state will continue to be competitive. Dane leads the state in population growth every year and is a Democratic powerhouse, producing higher margins for the Dems every election cycle. I think the state will continue to trend R relative to the nation, but based on the inroads the Dems have made in Milwaukee, WOW, and Dane County (Madison), the most it can become is lean R at the statewide level, even if the rurals start voting like Ohio and Missouri (which is doubtful). WI is also less religious than the two and, as someone else mentioned, has a progressive tradition. I just can't see it getting as R as OH and MO. It may eventually trend more R at the statewide level, but maybe by 1 point and nothing beyond that.  The state will always be in reach for Democrats, in my opinion. However, as of 2021, I think the state will  continue to be a swing state like PA and have confounding trends (i.e. D inroads in Milwaukee/WOW/Dane and R inroads in rural Wisconsin and other smaller industrial cities) that cancel each other out.

Wisconsin is a white state, shouldn't it be trending R?

We could make the same case about Maine, which is whiter than WI, but both of these states have more ancestrally D rural areas than OH and MO.

[TodayJunior]

I think it’ll be more of a national bellwether like Ohio and Florida were.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I think it’ll be more of a national bellwether like Ohio and Florida were.

OH us still a bellweather, the Rs son OH and FL 2 straight Election cycles and they have Black and Brown skinned people in them. Obama win OH, FL and IA two election cycles and so did Bill Clinton.
Some users don't believe in blue waves and we just had one in 2018 and Biden can have one due to 52% Approval not 40% Approvals we typically see in Midterms


Just because OH voted by 9 points for Trump doesn't mean it's gonna vote that way forever


Obama won OH by 5 did it vote like that forever, no


WI is a D based battleground and OH is an R based battleground but Rs haven't won the NPVI since 2016/ we're gonna win OH again

[CentristRepublican]

No. It's simply an R's wet dream that it will. I'm surprised the R avatars still think it will trend the way of Ohio or Missouri given the fact that Biden carried the state in 2020. People who think like this tend to not even be from WI, so they don't truly know what the state is like culturally.

The state is just as competitive as it was 16 years ago (Kerry won it by 0.4 points while Biden won it by 0.6 points). Confounding trends are why the state will continue to be competitive. Dane leads the state in population growth every year and is a Democratic powerhouse, producing higher margins for the Dems every election cycle. I think the state will continue to trend R relative to the nation, but based on the inroads the Dems have made in Milwaukee, WOW, and Dane County (Madison), the most it can become is lean R at the statewide level, even if the rurals start voting like Ohio and Missouri (which is doubtful). WI is also less religious than the two and, as someone else mentioned, has a progressive tradition. I just can't see it getting as R as OH and MO. It may eventually trend more R at the statewide level, but maybe by 1 point and nothing beyond that.  The state will always be in reach for Democrats, in my opinion. However, as of 2021, I think the state will  continue to be a swing state like PA and have confounding trends (i.e. D inroads in Milwaukee/WOW/Dane and R inroads in rural Wisconsin and other smaller industrial cities) that cancel each other out.

Wisconsin is a white state, shouldn't it be trending R?

We could make the same case about Maine, which is whiter than WI, but both of these states have more ancestrally D rural areas than OH and MO.

Exactly; Vermont, Biden's strongest state, is one of the whitest in the country. And no, I don't think it will become another MO/OH, because while Ohio voted for Trump by 8% and Missouri voted for him by 16%, Wisconsin voted against him (albeit by just 0.63%). I wouldn't call even Florida the next Missouri/Ohio, and definitely not Wisconsin. I just don't see how you could even imagine WI to be like MO and OH, given that it has a progressive Democratic senator (who won in a landslide in 2018) and a Democratic governor.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Trump won OH by 8 pts and Sherrod Brown won in 2018 and so did Manchin, OH will be won by Ryan watch, Obama won OH both of ones by 5 pts and Trump won it by 8 let's wait to see what the polls say in OH before we wrrte off Ryan whom I have donated to

Also Trump won KS by a Landslide and Kelly won in 2018 and the fav in 2022, Prez races aren't the same in Senate or Gov races, as I have said many times

Only poll out of OH Senate had it a tie not 8 pts

[Redban]

The way Ohio was from 2004-2012, yeah.

[🥥🌴]

Not sure 2020 didn't had the rebound in WI that MI had. We'll see, only time will tell. Even people in WI just know something about one area of WI. Like i live in BE, and so many people i know vote for the far-right. And still Flanders only votes 30% for the far-right. You wouldn't say that if you know where I live. I only know about some people in my area, and that's about it.

A better question is, if we asked people after the election of 2012 will Ohio turn into another Missouri. Or will Iowa become solid red after 2012. We have to imagine someone asked that, and what people would say.

What made those states go so red in such a short time? Didn't they had the tradition of being a swing state as well with more progressive and more conservative areas? Yet some people say both states are gone by this point.

In every state, the demographics should actually make states trend D (of course, not all states can relatively trend D compared to the national average), but this isn't just about demographic explosions. Suburban areas & urban areas grow, older people are dying, a new generation of millennials become politically active with a larger share of minority demographics. I mean that seems good for D's, and still the results were disappointing in the later years, perhaps hopeful like in suburban trends.

And we've no idea whether the rural areas are maxed out, what suburban areas will do: bounce back, stay the same or continue the trend (which seems the most likely thing in most areas, but not all).

[Tekken_Guy]

There’s a lot of room for Democrats to fall in the rural areas. Trump’s vote percentages there in many counties are still several points behind the non-college white population.

[Alcibiades]

Maybe

Wisconsin will eventually get out of reach for Democrats

But unlike Ohio/Missouri, it has a strong progressive tradation. And its more centralized with its big city, Milwakee. And it has plenty of small bedroom communities for Chicago like Kenosha and Recenne

Madison, not Milwaukee, is the centre of Dem strength in the state.

[Jackson Lee]

IDK what exactly it will turn into, but the days of Democratic overperformance there (Obama) are over.

It resembles the declining rust belt states, while the future for Dems is much brighter in fast growth states like AZ, TX and GA.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think so.  Especially if Texas, Georgia, and Arizona permanently flip to Democrats.  If that happens then Democrats' priorities will change.  They won't need states like Wisconsin so they won't have an agenda that focuses on states like that.  The Democrats are moving towards the agenda of people who live in or just outside of massive metro areas.  Texas fits this mold, Wisconsin doesn't.

[THG]

Wisconsin will eventually be pretty Republican, but not like Missouri or Ohio. The reason why is due to Madison/Dane County existing.

[CentristRepublican]

The way Ohio was from 2004-2012, yeah.

...Except WI didn't vote for Trump in 2020. It went for him narrowly in 2016 in the first place, and in 2020 it came back to Biden. OH, in contrast, voted for Trump by a solid 8% both times. Not even comparable. Maybe, maybe, if Trump had carried WI in 2020, but it flipped blue. If anything, it's a bellwether at this point (in fact, it is tied for the longest current perfect streak of voting for winners, along with MI and PA, now that OH voted for Trump in 2020, the first time it backed the losing candidate in 60 years).

[Redban]

The way Ohio was from 2004-2012, yeah.

...Except WI didn't vote for Trump in 2020. It went for him narrowly in 2016 in the first place, and in 2020 it came back to Biden. OH, in contrast, voted for Trump by a solid 8% both times. Not even comparable. Maybe, maybe, if Trump had carried WI in 2020, but it flipped blue. If anything, it's a bellwether at this point (in fact, it is tied for the longest current perfect streak of voting for winners, along with MI and PA, now that OH voted for Trump in 2020, the first time it backed the losing candidate in 60 years).

I said Wisconsin will be like Ohio was 2004-2012. Ohio from 2004-2012 was a bellwether.

[Bootes Void]

maybe but the upper midwest tend to not be as conservative as they are downsouth. You also have to mention the fact the fastest growing areas are in Madison with maybe *some* potential for Milwaukee as well

[CentristRepublican]

The way Ohio was from 2004-2012, yeah.

...Except WI didn't vote for Trump in 2020. It went for him narrowly in 2016 in the first place, and in 2020 it came back to Biden. OH, in contrast, voted for Trump by a solid 8% both times. Not even comparable. Maybe, maybe, if Trump had carried WI in 2020, but it flipped blue. If anything, it's a bellwether at this point (in fact, it is tied for the longest current perfect streak of voting for winners, along with MI and PA, now that OH voted for Trump in 2020, the first time it backed the losing candidate in 60 years).

I said Wisconsin will be like Ohio was 2004-2012. Ohio from 2004-2012 was a bellwether.

Fair enough, but OH was actually a bellwether for much longer than that. It's possible that WI votes red in 2024 and/or 2028 but I don't think it's going to become like OH; Trump was the candidate for winning white voters in WI and he still lost / won by very less. WI isn't OH. I guarantee you that in 2024, 2028, and 2032, even if WI votes for the GOP (which isn't particularly likely), it won't do so by more than a few points, at the very most (probably 3% at most).

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

If the urban areas were declining in population, and Democrats had little potential for growth in suburban areas, then the comparison might be better, but since Madison is growing very fast, and the WOW counties are trending Democratic, it’ll likely remain competitive at least for the near future.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No, Mandela Barnes will be the next Senator

[Del Tachi]

No. It's simply an R's wet dream that it will. I'm surprised the R avatars still think it will trend the way of Ohio or Missouri given the fact that Biden carried the state in 2020. People who think like this tend to not even be from WI, so they don't truly know what the state is like culturally.

The state is just as competitive as it was 16 years ago (Kerry won it by 0.4 points while Biden won it by 0.6 points). Confounding trends are why the state will continue to be competitive. Dane leads the state in population growth every year and is a Democratic powerhouse, producing higher margins for the Dems every election cycle. I think the state will continue to trend R relative to the nation, but based on the inroads the Dems have made in Milwaukee, WOW, and Dane County (Madison), the most it can become is lean R at the statewide level, even if the rurals start voting like Ohio and Missouri (which is doubtful). WI is also less religious than the two and, as someone else mentioned, has a progressive tradition. I just can't see it getting as R as OH and MO. It may eventually trend more R at the statewide level, but maybe by 1 point and nothing beyond that.  The state will always be in reach for Democrats, in my opinion. However, as of 2021, I think the state will  continue to be a swing state like PA and have confounding trends (i.e. D inroads in Milwaukee/WOW/Dane and R inroads in rural Wisconsin and other smaller industrial cities) that cancel each other out.

Wisconsin is a white state, shouldn't it be trending R?

We could make the same case about Maine, which is whiter than WI, but both of these states have more ancestrally D rural areas than OH and MO.

Maine is also trending R?  lmao

Your analysis is somewhat correct in that Wisconsin has always been the swingiest of swing states, albeit one that was particularly good for Democrats during the Obama years.  It's hard to see another Democrat matching Obama's 53% from 2012 anytime soon when Biden couldn't even break 50% in a much more favorable national environment.  That's the definition of a Republican trend.

Wisconsin not being as religious as MO/OH also seems to be a weird point to press, given that Trump performed no better with Evangelicals than Romney - his gains were among mostly secular non-college educated White voters, which remain plentiful in Wisconsin.  Pointing out the state's "progressive tradition" sounds exactly like something that would have been said about MO or OH ten years ago, lol

Wisconsin will remain close for the foreseeable future, just like it has been close in the past, but it's painfully obvious that Democrats are losing ground there relative to Republicans.  Biden's anemic 20k win is proof alone.       

[Alcibiades]

No. It's simply an R's wet dream that it will. I'm surprised the R avatars still think it will trend the way of Ohio or Missouri given the fact that Biden carried the state in 2020. People who think like this tend to not even be from WI, so they don't truly know what the state is like culturally.

The state is just as competitive as it was 16 years ago (Kerry won it by 0.4 points while Biden won it by 0.6 points). Confounding trends are why the state will continue to be competitive. Dane leads the state in population growth every year and is a Democratic powerhouse, producing higher margins for the Dems every election cycle. I think the state will continue to trend R relative to the nation, but based on the inroads the Dems have made in Milwaukee, WOW, and Dane County (Madison), the most it can become is lean R at the statewide level, even if the rurals start voting like Ohio and Missouri (which is doubtful). WI is also less religious than the two and, as someone else mentioned, has a progressive tradition. I just can't see it getting as R as OH and MO. It may eventually trend more R at the statewide level, but maybe by 1 point and nothing beyond that.  The state will always be in reach for Democrats, in my opinion. However, as of 2021, I think the state will  continue to be a swing state like PA and have confounding trends (i.e. D inroads in Milwaukee/WOW/Dane and R inroads in rural Wisconsin and other smaller industrial cities) that cancel each other out.

Wisconsin is a white state, shouldn't it be trending R?

We could make the same case about Maine, which is whiter than WI, but both of these states have more ancestrally D rural areas than OH and MO.

Maine is also trending R?  lmao

Your analysis is somewhat correct in that Wisconsin has always been the swingiest of swing states, albeit one that was particularly good for Democrats during the Obama years.  It's hard to see another Democrat matching Obama's 53% from 2012 anytime soon when Biden couldn't even break 50% in a much more favorable national environment.  That's the definition of a Republican trend.

Wisconsin not being as religious as MO/OH also seems to be a weird point to press, given that Trump performed no better with Evangelicals than Romney - his gains were among mostly secular non-college educated White voters, which remain plentiful in Wisconsin.  Pointing out the state's "progressive tradition" sounds exactly like something that would have been said about MO or OH ten years ago, lol

Wisconsin will remain close for the foreseeable future, just like it has been close in the past, but it's painfully obvious that Democrats are losing ground there relative to Republicans.  Biden's anemic 20k win is proof alone.       

I expect Wisconsin to remain, as you say, the quintessential swing state for the foreseeable future. Dems have plenty of downside in rural areas, but then so does the GOP in WOW, which, despite hefty erosion of Republican margins, is still unusually Republican for a suburban area outside the South (not to mention Dane County growing in population and only getting more Dem). It’s really a question of which of these two countervailing trends ends up being more powerful.

[BrewCityLiberal]

The way Ohio was from 2004-2012, yeah.

...Except WI didn't vote for Trump in 2020. It went for him narrowly in 2016 in the first place, and in 2020 it came back to Biden. OH, in contrast, voted for Trump by a solid 8% both times. Not even comparable. Maybe, maybe, if Trump had carried WI in 2020, but it flipped blue. If anything, it's a bellwether at this point (in fact, it is tied for the longest current perfect streak of voting for winners, along with MI and PA, now that OH voted for Trump in 2020, the first time it backed the losing candidate in 60 years).

I said Wisconsin will be like Ohio was 2004-2012. Ohio from 2004-2012 was a bellwether.

Fair enough, but OH was actually a bellwether for much longer than that. It's possible that WI votes red in 2024 and/or 2028 but I don't think it's going to become like OH; Trump was the candidate for winning white voters in WI and he still lost / won by very less. WI isn't OH. I guarantee you that in 2024, 2028, and 2032, even if WI votes for the GOP (which isn't particularly likely), it won't do so by more than a few points, at the very most (probably 3% at most).

I agree.